Dance With Fate

[SoCalMan2]

I do not like what I am about to write here.  It goes against a lot of stuff that I believe in and feel.  However, the evidence as I look at it makes me see things I prefer not to see but are there.

It seems to me that Dance of Fate\'s last race is good enough to win the Derby and he could easily pair it up or even more forward.  It seems that the ONLY reason people are discounting this horse is based on the belief that he is better on synthetic or grass than he is on dirt.  First, I am not convinced that reason for throwing him out is correct.  Second, even if it is correct, grass horses seem to have a certain edge with that oh so tricky last 1/8 of a mile and I have heard people say that the Churchill Dirt is kind to grass specialists.

As to the first point, what is the basis for saying he is better on one surface over another?  His connections say so? is that good enough reason to reach the conclusion?  I find the pedigree very difficult to discern, and there are bases in there that one could say there is a dirt affinity.  He did run a new lifetime top first time on dirt (not true of California Chrome -- who required a third try on dirt before he could run a lifetime top on the stuff).  That first race on dirt was a grade 1 two turn race at Santa Anita.  He was made the favorite in the race and he did run second.  Those all suggest that at least at the time, people putting their money where their mouths are thought this horse was a Grade 1 dirt horse and he ran like it.  Yes, he did already run second in the synthetic Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity (beating California Chrome who himself looked like a synthetic specialist until first dirt new top which was only last month), but I just do not see how people say he is a synth/grass specialist.  Yes, he backed up in the breeders cup, but he arguably had a trip excuse, plus he also had to run without lasix.  An argument could be construed that this horse has a history of stepping forward moving from synthetic to dirt, and could do so again on May 3.

As to the second point, two years ago, Dullahan and Went the Day Well could both have been thrown out for being specialists and both hit the super (WTDW did actually make tops every dirt effort).  The year before that, Animal Kingdom won first time dirt, but also \"specialists\" Master of Hounds and Brilliant Speed both ran tops in the Derby that either were not fast enough to crack the super (MoH ran 5th) or were concealed (!) by an awful trip (BS\'s 2.5!).  The year before that Paddy O\'Prado AND Make Music for Me both hit the super at good prices...same theory.  The year before that, Pioneerof the Nile and Papa Clem both hit the super as synthetic specialists.  I understand that these anecdotes are not scientific.  However, there is plenty of evidence of the Derby crowd throwing out logical contenders because they are perceived to be synth or turf specialists and being wrong.  This horse, Dance with Fate seems another in this line.  If he were being bet down, I might feel differently, but I have to think this horse is going to go off at 20-1 or better and he seems to me like he is no different than all the other contenders people are talking about.

Am I crazy?  Where is my error?  I wish I were wrong.  I hate Synthetics.  I don\'t like betting horses like this, but it seems he is a logical bet. He completely clobbered me in the Blue Grass...but now that he has jumped up....I think you have to give that number a lot of credence.

[louisvilleguy1111]

If I was going to use a horse from the BG Stakes I think I would use Medal Count instead. I will take Romans at CD before I would take a horse that THE OWNERS choose to run not the trainer. Just from past exp it seems like when the trainer says one thing and then the owners get the itch to run it never turns out good. I think the guy that is messing with the horse day in and day out knows WAY more about the horse he has been caring for and knows whats best then some owner or owners that just want to get the chance to buy a fancy hat and sip on over priced mint juleps all day.

But hey after Mine That Bird nothing surprises me anymore...

[richiebee]

SoCal:

Since you have done an admirable job making a case for this one, let me present some
negatives.

1) Comes back in 3 weeks after moving forward significantly in his final prep
(trying to protect proprietary data here) (same could be said for Danza). Is it
better to peak in the penultimate prep a la CC, GAR, Hopper and Intense Holiday?

2) Owners/trainers were not originally pointing for the Derby. (This could also
be seen as a positive, that the colt\'s post Blue Grass demeanor caused
owner/trainer to reevaluate and enter). Disagree with Louisville Guy here -- DWF
has the points and has run at least one # which makes him competitive, deserves a
chance to roll the dice.

Another owner trainer dynamic which has been discussed is with Chitu, now pointed
for the Derby Trial, yet not eliminated from Derby consideration. My feeling is
that if Chitu dominates the Derby Trial, it might be hard for Baffert to resist
(and the owner might insist) that Chitu wheel right back in one week. Or maybe
Chitu is just a placeholder for Bayern, or is being pointed to the Preakness.

Updated \"Horizontal Herd\": CC, Saaamraaat, Danza, Intense Holiday, Hoppertunity.


Already eliminated: We Miss Artie.

Newly eliminated: Wildcat Red. Looking at TG\'s sire profile of D\'Wildcat,
extremely difficult for me to imagine this one is a factor in the late stages of
the Derby.

[Tavasco]

I also agree with the high quality of your analysis and your conclusion. Even though you may have let the cat out of the bag. IMO, Few will get on board due to the prejudices you mentioned.

What does the Keeneland surface require of its winners? Most races that BG weekend involved hard fought finishes. No coasting to the wire there. I think the surface requires strength that is only present in the fittest of horses.

The negative is, of course, he was visually impressive (LOL). Remembering Tamarando was no slouch before failing @ TP. The expected honest pace shouldn\'t hurt his chances either. Watching this one and WS rolling late could be quite a show!

[Wrongly]

Richiebee

You did see that Samraat was shipped to the Hyperbaric Chamber following his last race.  Did you consider that a positive, aka I\'ll Have Another or is it a negative?

Socal

DWF I think is an interesting horse and I will add that if the track comes up wet, he will be on all my tickets.  CD\'s dirt course is kind to turf runners especially when it\'s wet.  Have we already forgotten Perfect Soul, or just remember Animal Kingdom.

Speaking of Perfect Soul, does Commanding the Curve make the field.  Might sound crazy but he\'s training well.  Heck he appears to have a much better chance of hitting the board this year than PS did last year.

[richiebee]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Richiebee
>
> You did see that Samraat was shipped to the
> Hyperbaric Chamber following his last race.  Did
> you consider that a positive, aka I\'ll Have
> Another or is it a negative?
 
I have no problem with horses in the hyperbaric chamber, high tech cutting edge
technology which has been around for 60 or so years.

My real concern with this guy is that all of his races have been at the aging
eyesore in Ozone Park. Like all of the Derby entrants, lets watch and see how he
acclimates to CD.

[moosepalm]

SoCalMan2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Am I crazy?  


No, as to the general proposition of synth to dirt.  I have no opinion yet, on this specific horse, or any other for that matter, but I don\'t believe you can draw a line through every horse with synth success and label them \"specialists.\"  The problem is that some will be, and some won\'t.  Same issue with moving from a different dirt surface to Churchill.  Or even pedigree issues.  In one way or another, they\'re all being asked to do something they haven\'t done before, and to do it surrounded by nineteen other horses and a throng of screaming inebriates.  Usually, when I lose a race, I can rationalize all sorts of woulda, shoulda, couldas.  On those very rare occasions when I actually hit the Derby, I\'m still not sure why I got it right.

[boston]

26 to 1 offshore.  20 to 1 in LV.

[richiebee]

louisvilleguy1111 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If I was going to use a horse from the BG Stakes I
> think I would use Medal Count instead. I will take
> Romans at CD before I would take a horse that THE
> OWNERS choose to run not the trainer. Just from
> past exp it seems like when the trainer says one
> thing and then the owners get the itch to run it
> never turns out good. I think the guy that is
> messing with the horse day in and day out knows
> WAY more about the horse he has been caring for
> and knows whats best then some owner or owners
> that just want to get the chance to buy a fancy
> hat and sip on over priced mint juleps all day.
>
> But hey after Mine That Bird nothing surprises me
> anymore...


It surprised me that THE OWNER of Little Mike has taken over training from
Dale Romans.

The first race THE OWNER/TRAINER plans to enter Little Mike in, the Woodford
Reserve, there\'s Wise Dan. A short field expected to challenge WD, don\'t know
quite how I would feel about a field of 7 with a 3/5 fave in the Derby P4...

[kmart4503]

I think I may be warming up to Dance With Fate as well... The big move forward in the last, which he could regress off that effort, but his two year old top was on dirt which makes him intriguing.

KMart