Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps

[phil23]

I tried using CD (centre of distribution). Apparently it is supposed to be: the lower the more route orientated. So i just chopped it (kind of like Kmart did above for DI) to get about three equal groups:

CD < 0.64 (sample size 98)

Top 11
Pr 22
Off 16
X 50

CD >= 0.64 & <0.87

Top 5
Pr 22
Off 28
X 46

CD >=0.87

Top 14
Pr 21
Off 17
X 49



Looks like we still need a better way of differentiating routers/sprinters.

Jim - Maybe we could all take up a collection and bribe your friend for his list?  

[TGJB]

That\'s one possible conclusion, and I would certainly like to see any large sample of pre race distance analysis. But there are other possible conclusions, at least so far...

[TGJB]

...and the study uses all tops, regardless of distance. If you just used those that ran their top at 1 1/8th (maybe half?) I\'m guessing you would get completely flat results based on \"sprint/route pedigree\". Which from this you pretty much do already.

[phil23]

Hmm...ok, well the one thing that does kind of stand out from both mine and Kmart\'s on DI or CD is that it appears the middle group pedigrees are a fair bit less likely to run a new top.

So...does that mean that extreme pedigrees one way or the other are, for some reason, more likely to produce new tops in the Derby.  But does that even make sense? (If) we buy into the Romans groupings, why would extreme sprint orientated pedigrees be more likely to run tops than middle ground ones.

[TGJB]

They wouldn\'t. If anything screams \"it\'s random\", it\'s that.

To be clear, the results (and I) are not saying some horses (and pedigrees) aren\'t better going short or long. We\'re saying that once they run a top going two turns (which almost all of these have), they are roughly equally likely to be able handle 1 1/4.

[ajkreider]

How about the idea that, since trainers know the pedigrees, horses with a sprint heritage start their career with sprint training.  And then when it becomes obvious by the race day performance that they may be able to carry their speed farther, the training becomes more route-oriented (as do their races).

So, the sprint-pedigreed horses just reach their route tops later - like right around derby time.

[toppled]

There are 3 possible horses in this race with jump ups by at least 6 points over their previous top in their last prep race, including likely steam horse Wicked Strong. So instead of 3.0, I used 4.0, which is a lot closer to the 3 jump ups going back to 1997 where all horses are available to review.  In some years there were no big jumps, while some years yielded multiple leaps.  

Overall there have been 22 horses that jumped up 4 pts or better in their final prep.  2 won, but one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he was fast before the jump.  That is unlike this year\'s jumpers who were topping over 6 before their last big races. The other was Charismatic in 1999.  As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but regressed a point.  None of the other 19 hit the board and only 1 other made it to 4th to be in the super.  Here are the results year by year, the 1st # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by the number of points he regressed in the Derby.  Overall 20 of 22 regressed, the 4 over 6.00 regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the 4, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points. I won\'t be betting any of these 3 to become the next Charismatic :

2010 (none the last 3 years)
2nd,4.50,1.00
8th,4.50,3.25
10th,4.00,5.50
11th,5.00,8.00
18th,4.25,25.25

2009
4th,6.0,1.50
6th,7.50,1.75
14th,4.75,6.50

2008-Big Brown won
1st,4.50,improved 1.25
11th,4.00,7.50

2005
7th,4.75,9.25
11th,6.75,5.75
19th,7.0,21.00

2004
14th,4.75,7.25

2003
14th,6.00,9.75

2002
14th,4.00,7.00

2001
6th,5.00,4.50
11th,5.75,8.75

1999 Charismatic won
1st,4.50, paired
15th,5.00,6.00
16th,4.00,8.50

1998
11th,5.25,14.00

[pizzalove]

are there any in this years derby that meet this 4.0 new top criteria in their last race?

[BitPlayer]

What happens if you eliminate horses who had their last prep on a synthetic surface?  One might think that such horses are less likely to bounce because (a) the synthetic surface is kinder and (b) synthetic surfaces cause fields to be less spread out, making it harder to to earn a big fig, and thus hiding some of a top horse\'s physical improvement.

[baron1970]

Great point.. I can\'t wait until synthetic is gone for good.

[toppled]

Three of them and they all jumped up 6 points or more.  The obvious one is Wicked Strong, I won\'t mention the less obvious 2 because Jerry wants you to buy the sheets to find out & it\'s his board.

[TGJB]

Thank you. But if it\'s more than 4 points I count 4.

[toppled]

I\'m still getting 3.  One jumped up 5.25 points from his previous race but only 3.75 from his 2yo top.  Is that the 4th one you saw?

[TGJB]

You\'re right.

[pizzalove]

No Problem.  I understand and I will be purchasing.