Archive study on horses that have run 3 pt or more tops in final derby preps

[Michael D.]

phil23 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hmm...ok, well the one thing that does kind of
> stand out from both mine and Kmart\'s on DI or CD
> is that it appears the middle group pedigrees are
> a fair bit less likely to run a new top.
>
> So...does that mean that extreme pedigrees one way
> or the other are, for some reason, more likely to
> produce new tops in the Derby.  But does that even
> make sense? (If) we buy into the Romans groupings,
> why would extreme sprint orientated pedigrees be
> more likely to run tops than middle ground ones.



with 20 horses running around the little 1m oval, trip is huge. horses with speed have a better chance of getting a good trip. and horses with no speed whatsoever sometimes get better trips than the stalker types, as they\'re in back away from trouble for part of the race.

pedigree matters, but trip is crucial.

[toppled]

With the numbers out, here\'s the update.  I learned my lesson back in 2005 when I bet Bandini, who went in the gate a washed out mess and finished 19th.  So next year, when a horse jumps up around 6.0 points in his final prep and becomes a steam horse, I\'ll refer to this and toss him with no fear, just as I did with the 3 horses this year.  I guess you can keep them in for supers based on Wicked Strong becoming the 2nd one to finish 4th, but that\'s still only 20% in the top 4.  With an 80% chance of not hitting the super, I\'ll take my chances.  

toppled Wrote:

>
> Overall there have been 25 horses that jumped up 4
> pts or better in their final prep.  2 won, but
> one, Big Brown, jumped from a 1 to a -3.5, so he
> was fast before the jump.  That is unlike this
> year\'s jumpers who were topping over 6 before
> their last big races. The other was Charismatic in
> 1999.  As for the rest, Ice Box ran 2nd but
> regressed a point.  None of the other 22 hit the
> board and only 2 other made it to 4th to be in the
> super.  Here are the results year by year, the 1st
> # is the horse\'s Derby finish, followed by the
> points he jumped up in his last prep, followed by
> the number of points he regressed in the Derby.
> Overall 23 of 25 regressed, the eight 6.00 or over
> regressed at least 1.50 points & the worst of the
> 8, who progressed 7.0 points regressed 21 points.
> I won\'t be betting any horse to become the
> next Charismatic next year either:

  2014 ADDED
  4th,7.75,2.50
  6th,6.00,1.75
  8th,6.75,4.25
>
> 2010 (none the last 3 years)
> 2nd,4.50,1.00
> 8th,4.50,3.25
> 10th,4.00,5.50
> 11th,5.00,8.00
> 18th,4.25,25.25
>
> 2009
> 4th,6.0,1.50
> 6th,7.50,1.75
> 14th,4.75,6.50
>
> 2008-Big Brown won
> 1st,4.50,improved 1.25
> 11th,4.00,7.50
>
> 2005
> 7th,4.75,9.25
> 11th,6.75,5.75
> 19th,7.0,21.00
>
> 2004
> 14th,4.75,7.25
>
> 2003
> 14th,6.00,9.75
>
> 2002
> 14th,4.00,7.00
>
> 2001
> 6th,5.00,4.50
> 11th,5.75,8.75
>
> 1999 Charismatic won
> 1st,4.50, paired
> 15th,5.00,6.00
> 16th,4.00,8.50
>
> 1998
> 11th,5.25,14.00