I went back and looked at all of the horses that have run 3 point or more tops in their final derby preps since 2009 (analysis only relevant since they stopped allowing steroids which allowed horses/all ahtletes to recover from big efforts alot quicker)

I was surprised by the results, much better than I thought  

25 horses total

7 pair or new tops (28%)
9 off (36%)
9 X (36%)

This is very much in line with the overall distribution percentages for all Derby runners

I believe top/pair total is 30% for all runners so right in line here and there is actually a lower percentage of \"X\'s\" for this group than all runners

In other words, running a big new top doesn\'t mean you are more likely to bounce in the Derby.  To the contrary, it actually means you are more likely to run a good race in the Derby (with offs categorized as \"good\" races)

I believe alot of this has to do with horses getting to run at distances that they are better suited to in the final preps and some of it is attributable to some horses getting better a little bit later than some of the precocious ones

Either way, this makes me more comfortable playing a horse like Wicked Strong who is very fast for this crop (I won\'t give out actual numbers for those that didnt\' order the derby/oaks probable TGs, you should check that out)

I saved this part for the end since we are figures oriented here and not results oriented but since 2009, horses that have run a 3 point or more new top in their final prep race have accounted for

3 out of the 5 winners (Mine that Bird, Animal Kingdom and Orb), 2 second place finishes (Bode and Ice Box) and a 3rd place finish (Dullahan)

In other words, DO NOT THROW OUT HORSES THAT RAN A # POINT OR MORE TOP IN THEIR FINAL PREP BECAUSE YOU EXPECT THEM TO BOUNCE

oh by the way, if we include Big Brown in 2008 (which isn\'t comparable because of the steroids being legal then), horses that have jumped up in their final prep have accounted for 4 out of the last 6 winners

if you want to throw them out for other reasons (i.e. overraced, training bad, can\'t get the distance, etc) that\'s fine but don\'t throw them out on bounce logic

I sent the spreadsheet to JB, he can decide if he wants to do anything with this for the seminar or not

TGJB: I\'ll save my comments until the seminar.

Meanwhile, did you ask your friend about using his lists based on pedigree to break horses into groups?

touchgold: well, 30% to pair or go forward vs what will probably be the second choice and odds of 5-1 give or take, doesnt seem to be a great deal of value....but still very interesting.

covelj70: the data is the data, it\'s pretty clear that the big jump in the final prep doesn\'t impact their ability to run their race in the Derby

to dismiss an otherwise fast horse in the Derby because they ran a big new top in their final prep is dumb, plain and simple

there are other reasons to throw horses out but a bounce isn\'t one of them

would have cost someone 4 out of the last 6 derbies if they too that approach

in terms of my buddy, he doesn\'t want to share his list and I don\'t blame him, no reason for him to give his valuable content away

guy has a very good day job but could absolutely compete with the publicly available products and sell his content so he\'s not anxious to give it away

he and I disagree on a bunch of stuff this year so it will be interesting to see how this breaks

Polamalu43: Jim,  very insightful information.  On my way over to but the sheets as soon as I finish with my office work here.  Looking forward to JB\'s seminar on this as well!

covelj70: I\'m not here to try and pound the table on Wicked Strong or anything or try to convince people to bet him because he\'s far from any kind of lock to win the race, I\'m just saying that he\'s the fastest horse in the race and the data tells us there\'s no reason to throw him out just because he jumped up to a big figure in the final prep

there are a bunch of legitmate reasons to throw horses out but bounce theory isn\'t one of them

TGJB: I\'m not talking about this year\'s list. Talking about past years, so we can run some data.

pizzalove: You know I mentioned before how he was weaving in the stretch but when you take a look he definitely had a nice time for the final eighth so this is a tough horse for me to figure.

kmart4503: I put all the data in excel for Dosage and Center of Distribution since 1998 with TG Figures in the Derby, prior Route Top and Figure for the race prior to Derby.  If you would like it let me know where to email it.

KMart

TGJB: Is there a way to post it here in that format?

kmart4503: Link to Data

Let me know if this works...

KMart

TGJB: Just making sure-- the Dosage stuff is before they ran that year, right?

Okay guys, go to work. Rocky? Covello?

ajkreider: Fantastic!

smalltimer: I don\'t have the software (Excel) but kmart could you go to column D and sort a descending order that will put all the winners together, all the 2nd place horses together, etc.
Possible there may be some of the data that suggests all the winners shared some of the same pattern?
Thanks

TGJB: What we\'re looking for here is how horses ran in the Derby relative to their previous route best, whether there\'s correlation with their (supposed or real) genetic propensity to go further than they previously have. I haven\'t got time to do this myself, if you guys don\'t over the next couple of days I\'ll see whether Al wants to.

Another thing someone could look at is whether horses who ran their previous top at 1 1/8th were more likely to run well in the Derby vs. those who ran it at shorter distances, but that gets complicated simply because the most recent prep is usually the longest.