California Chrome now 1 to 3.5 to not win Derby

[boston]

CC is 2.6 to 1 to win derby with the defection of Cario Prince.

I love laying 3.5 to win 1 that he will not win derby.  It seems that there are around 8 that are as fast and some have great looking patterns.  A few other that are a tad bit slower with good patterns.

[jumpnthefire]

can i book that bet? lol

[boston]

CC is now 2.25 to 1.  To bet he does NOT win is 1 to 2.85.

I would love to split the difference.  In my mind he has no more than a 20% chance of winning the race.

[jbelfior]

Just looked at Jerry\'s sheets. Interesting how CC got so fast in such a short time improving from some pretty weak numbers. Can you imagine what we would be thinking if his trainer\'s last name was Dutrow, Lake,O\'Neal or something like that?
Based on patterns and numbers of past winners, I would say the number of horses that can win this is less than 5.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Hopportunity backed up 3.25 points in his last?....seriously?

[pizzalove]

That cant be right.  He backed up that far?

[boston]

Do you believe it was a pair up?

[TreadHead]

Yeah, I don\'t get the questions about this.

SA was clearly not his favorite surface given the huge moveups in short time after leaving SA the first time.

He was already in the Derby, so no reason for Baffert to have him fully cranked.

And based on comments I saw, he was not ridden hard and may not have even been struck during the race, didn\'t appear to be from what I could see on the replay.

Not to mention the possibility for underlying injury going from no starts to zero in a route so quickly.

Plenty of reasons a backup of a few points makes sense.

Luckily, he just arrived at CD and we will get to see a workout over the track.  Using this one will largely depend on his on-track appearance week of the race.

[miff]

\"Plenty of reasons a backup of a few points makes sense\"
 


....not even close!

[boston]

Ok he paired up.  Why do you want to see this from the TGs?  So that you can bet CC to bounce?  Hop and Candys Boy to move forward?

[miff]

Hopp backed in the SA derby, no argument.Do it any way you wish and at worse he gets app a 2. The reason he went back 3.25 points had to do with CC pairing a fig which was on the slow side in the SF.

[big18741]

Mike

Then you\'d have to give Candy Boy a 3 for the SA Derby which seems generous.

[TreadHead]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hopp backed in the SA derby, no argument.Do it any
> way you wish and at worse he gets app a 2. The
> reason he went back 3.25 points had to do with CC
> pairing a fig which was on the slow side in the
> SF.


... not even close !!!

[miff]

Thread,

You may want to debate the \"accuracy\" of speed/performance figs with someone else or face getting very embarrassed.

Have a nice day.

Mike

[TreadHead]

No worries here at all, as I find debating the \"accuracy\" of figures to be an extremely abstract concept to start with that is almost impossible to prove.  There are several different shades of attempting to analyze this from:

1) Horses running over the same track that previously ran on the same track, but on different days

to

2) Horses coming from completely different tracks each going to a brand new track and facing each other.

In scenario 1, you might be able to make some sort of arguments about the accuracy figures in a debate over who got the variant more \"right\" on those individual days, but it still doesn\'t account for growth, improvement, or new ailments that may be impacting performance that day which means you are making an apples to oranges comparison in trying to justify if that horse\'s previous figure was really \"correct\" or not based on what happened today.  Seems more like art than science.

In scenario 2, there\'s just too many variables in play to be able to make an argument that previous figures were \"wrong\" based on any results.  If a horse ships to Churchill and hates it, it doesn\'t necessarily mean that all his previous good figures were \"wrong\".  Conversely, if he ships there and loves it, it doesn\'t meant that all his previous slower figures were \"wrong\".  

Or if a horse is trying a sloppy surface for the first time.  Or a new distance/surface combo.

All that said, if you\'d like to go on the record about what figures you see you are certain are \"wrong\" and some detailed reasoning behind it other than taking annoying pot-shot drive-bys and simply saying \"not even close!\", I\'d love to hear more about this methodology and line of thinking and how you can come up with a firm opinion on how recently run figures are wrong before the next set of races has even been run.