California Chrome now 1 to 3.5 to not win Derby

[miff]

Thread,

First mistake, no such thing as right or wrong, zero science.At best, you end up with reflective of performance or not reflective, quite subjective some of the time.

In measuring reflective or not reflective, you must at the very least, understand track speed, raw and adjusted,the different methodologies, the people who make figs and their differing style of creative license.For about 10 years, that\'s what I\'ve done.Waiting for the next race to be run to affirm a certain fig, sometimes yes, but a horses whole body of work,no.

At the end of the day,when a speed/performance figure does not reconcile amongst the top fig makers, I have a pretty good idea why.

By the way, if someone suggested that 1 + 1 equalled 3 would you believe them? Me, I don\'t believe figures that say that either.

To each his own.

[pizzalove]

If Candy Boy did indeed run a 3 his last race I would move him way up in my Kentucky Derby wagers.  Coming off two long layoffs in a race that may not of been much more than a workout.  He may relish Kentucky.  I am curious as to what you all think of his breeding?

[miff]

Pizza,

Even if you gave CB a 3, it\'s ground loaded and he was drubbed by 8 3/4 lengths by 2 rivals he will face in the SA Derby.At no point loomed a late threat in the Derby.Whats to like?

Breeding info at Downey profile/Romans dosage site good if you are into that.


Good Luck,
Mike

[boston]

Thank you for your thoughtful reply.  Why do you think the SF should be faster? Of course, if you are correct CC will look incredible and Hopp will look much better also.

[pizzalove]

Mike I appreciate your comment.  My question is do you really beleive that CB was cranked up for this race after having run once in 112 days?  Wouldnt you beleive that his Derby effort should be much better.  Baffert knew he was going to the derby with this horse so I doubt he was pushed much.  

The other point I would ask (and trust me I know this doesnt mean much) but he sure has the look of a derby winner.  Big, strong, in my opinion I think he has the frame of a Point Given (who did lay a derby egg i know).  Let me know if you think I am crazy.

[miff]

Pizza,

Look pretty much at the game as either fast or not. CB has never run fast so you have to expect a substantial forward move,which has been happening with this group lately.Nothing wrong with CB or Hopp physically(rare to see a smallish Baffert horse, he prefers big)


Not much of a believer in the not fully cranked excuse put out there by trainers before a race.The old trainer on/off switch is folklore,like Bigfoot imo.They\'ll intentionally run one who they think is short,time to time.More often than not, a kinda hard fought tightener is what they are looking for.


Mike

[jp702006]

Miff,
I posted a question/observation last night regarding Vicar vs CC and got no replies. However, Jerry addressed it somewhat in some of his dialogue with you. Am I to deduct from some of your posts that you are in the CC camp? I am just curious. I do enjoy your posts.

[miff]

If CC draws to my liking, I\'ll stand with him, if he draws poorly, I\'ll toss. Draw means not only where he starts from but who surrounds him, esp speed to his outside. Check the head on of ALL of his races and you will note he is not great in the gate all the time. A stutter step and pinch back for him makes him history. A clean break and his A game makes him very much the one to beat.

Good Luck,
Mike

[jp702006]

Miff,
 The draw is everything. All of us are debating the merits of figs and the speed of certain races and it could all be for naught after the draw. As of right now, I am leaning towards CC with a few others underneath. And I am somebody who never bets the favorite in the derby!

[miff]

JP,

There is so much soft money in the derby pools, the odds seem less relevant.If you can cash the derby you will not receive underlaid value, esp in the exotics.

The Oaks/Derby DD this year looks a bit uninviting with the Oaks having a filly faster than all the colts in the derby.

[jp702006]

miff,
I know all about the soft money in the pools. Anytime you can get $4 or more to show on logical horses it is remarkable. I always play the tri\'s and pick 4\'s. This year I may venture into the superfecta market. Someone is going to make money on this years Derby, might as well be us on this forum:)

[pizzalove]

After seeing a derby live (Lil E Tee) and a breeders cup classic at Churchill (Invasor) I dont think draw is very important.  I understand in like every other race why it is sooo important but the facts are in the derby they have like 4 football fields to get the position they want.  If you get hung out wide in the derby it is more due to a poor ride rather than post position in my opinion.

[jp702006]

I don\'t entirely disagree with you. However, the 1 hole is not a good place to be in the 20 horse field. The stats back that up. Are you going to the Derby or cup this year?

[TGJB]

What stats?

[jp702006]

I cannot remember the exact website I read the data on, it was either drf or bloodhorse, but since the advent of the 20 horse fields it was something like 1 for 19? I read the article by one of their contributors, and this was perhaps 2008 or 2009. Please correct me if I am wrong.