Illinois Derby

[TreadHead]

I would draw an entirely different set of conclusions out of the race.

MH lost to a horse whose previous best was 3pts slower than his, and he had already developed 7pts from Nov.  It\'s pretty easy to \"not embarrass yourself\" when you are 3-5 points better than everyone else in the field, any of the legit contenders on the Derby trail would have destroyed this field.

I\'m also drawing the complete opposite conclusion if we have actually validated the Chitu number (have we?).  Yes, I suppose you could use yesterdays race to help validate that Chitu ran something like a 2.5 or a 3 in the SUDerby.  And what good is that?

It leaves him a couple points behind a large cluster of contenders, which means he would have to run a significant new top and hope that none of the 6 or 7 horses in front of him do, while also getting a better trip than those 6 or 7 horses.  That seems like an extremely far-fetched hope.  While it has certainly happened in past Derbies, the horses that make that move are almost always deep closers like MTB and Giacamo who have been racing all spring on speed-favoring tracks and become unleashed on the fairer and more demanding CD surface, and not speed horses like Chitu.  I can\'t remember many early speed types that ran a 2pt or better top in the Derby, might be worth a look thru the archives.

[touchgold]

I went thru the archives for probably the last dozen derbies or so, and suprisingly a 2 gets you in the trifecta about half the time....so, if chitu did in fact run a 2 or so, his line will look good...slower but forward. And if he runs a 2 or even a 1 in lousiville, with a trip, it may take a 0 to beat him....and I am going on assumption he went forward in sunland and that he will be a huge price in kentucky.

[jerry]

When you have an entire thread devoted to Chitu you can forget about him being an overlay.

[touchgold]

well, he closed at 31-1 in pool 4, which closed a week after the sunland win. Im pretty confident, he will not be one of the top 5 betting choices....where that lands his odds, who knows...but im not interested if its under 20-1.

[TreadHead]

Keep in mind that MH raced outside him on both turns in the Sunland Derby, so I wouldn\'t expect chitu\'s fig to be much better than MHs.

[touchgold]

very true...so maybe in the 3 range, in which case I wouldnt be as excited....We will find out soon enough.

[miff]

One of very few sporting a Beyer of 102(like TG zero) JB has the Sunland race slower than Beyer.Other services split.

[TreadHead]

I\'d say by the supporting evidence since:

1) This race
2) commissioners Ark Derby
3) The relative efforts of other horses they raced against this winter (like everyone else other than Hopp being so far back in the SA Derby)

That TG overwhelming has the right of that argument.

[miff]

1.This race came up on the fast side 102 Beyer

2.Commissioner Ark Derby irrelevant, confirmed slug

3.Hopp, like 3rd choice, and was FAIRLY close to by far the racetrack fastest CC

[TreadHead]

1) I hope you aren\'t suggesting that the Ill Derby winner went from a TG6 to a TG0

2) Confirmed slug or not, Chitu was only 6 in front of him in the SU derby on a better trip.

3) The point is, Hopp wintered in FG and OP and didn\'t race against MH and Chitu more recently like some of the others that got crushed in the SA Derby did

[miff]

Thread,

The prior race, same distance, confirms the Ill derby fast.If the winner jumped up 5+points, then its something in the air. See jump up of winners of Wood and Ark derby.

Good luck

Mike

[TGJB]

Limited data since, so far looks like I got it right. Covello\'s crush (Commissioner) paired the 7 at OP, MH unlikely to have gone forward at Haw. Still watching, but feeling pretty good about that one.

There are LOTS of other differences this year, between all three \"name\" services.

[miff]

\"MH unlikely to have gone forward at Haw\'



...pretty difficult to get there unless ignoring the clock/prior routes.

[TGJB]

Just looked, you\'re right. This is the stuff that gives figure makers stomach aches, I\'ll be working on it for a few days.

That track is notorious for split variants, by the way, but it usually happens earlier in the card.

[miff]

Interesting, your exact sentiment was just expressed by another sharp fig maker.