Illinois Derby

[Tavasco]

Finally a great test of strong opinions.

Many have posted their certainty of Midnight Hawks inability to win at distances greater than a mile. Myself included.

Another discussion argues speed biased surfaces vs tiring tracks effects on brilliance.

So a test of a speed merchant vs unaccomplished foes at a questionable venue looms  Saturday!

Got to admire Bafferts choice of races, $500K here and $1.5m that night @ CT.

I have to bet my mind so in an effort to create a life long memory - I\'ll invest in career maiden Irish whatever to win.

[jimbo66]

Tavasco

Yes, but not sure that midnight hawk winning means he can get the distance.  That is an awfully common field. As one of the leaders of the \"midnight hawk is a miler at best\" camp, I have looked long and hard for a horse to bet against him with.  I may do it, but it wil be a reach as it is a hungry field.

Now, if he wins while running a big figure. Then time to reconsider my view on him (and upgrade Chitu)

Jim

[TreadHead]

Yep, several things wrong with the comparisons.

The only reason we\'ve gotten into those discussions is due to the extremely tight grouping of the ability of several horses, and attempts to separate them on some sort of criteria.

When youre Big Brown and 4pts faster than everyone already, then it doesn\'t really matter much.

The other issue is (and I absolutely never play Hawthorne and have no idea what its reputation is like) that BRIS is showing me that out of 91 route races this meet that 31% (!!) are won in wire to wire fashion, so I would have to question whether or not you are really seeing much of a surface change there.

[jbelfior]

what to do with King Cyrus?

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Tavasco]

Since I haven\'t a clue in this race other than a disbelief in Midnight Hawks stamina.

I went searching, queried various talking head sites and discovered:
 
a) Midnight Hawk is a stand out (apparently he has better class also)

b) King Sirus could maybe win if Rosie and blinkers help a lot.

c) my choice is a tomato can

d) The horses that are actually winning races are mostly local runners, and don\'t really matter.

e) TAP is tricky, he can afford to ship and sometimes jumps up with 41/1 lightly raced young 3 y/o\'s

Yawn! the race is of little interest yet it has a $500K purse?

[Acesover]

Midnight Hawk crawls home His final fractions are atrocious. He would have little chance in Kentucky.

[number5858]

The show pool sure is big on Midnight Hawk

[Rick B.]

number5858 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The show pool sure is big on Midnight Hawk

Only 65% of the pool is bet on MH.

You\'ll want 90% or more before playing the \"steal the bridge
jumpers money\" game.

[TGJB]

LeDuca said a lot of the show money was taken back out of the pool. Which is a big story in itself.

MH was lugging in pretty good, looked to me. First two well clear, maybe another 3 for the winner, but I doubt they go on to the Derby.

[Tavasco]

Jimbo,

Well, I think he (MH) was unlucky to lose. But thank goodness he did! Luck of the Irish.

Won\'t help Chitu\'s price but encourages me on his chances. TGJB estimates another 3, the effort surprised me.

Mostly, what I take away is that the appearance of a race can be misleading. A runaway winner can be a mediocre effort outrunning slow horses. Or, a great effort outrunning mediocre horses.

Trust the number not the race appearance. There will be big derby value if one of the artificial surface horses could step up?

I doubt we\'ll see anymore good chances to make money on a race with MH in it. I think BB will shorten him up and I don\'t want to try and beat him again.

[touchgold]

why would MH losing at 2/5 hurt chitus price?

[Tavasco]

As a Midnight Hawk doubter, I thought he would run worse than he did Sat. Jimbo had mentioned (in an earlier post) that he would upgrade Chitu if Midnight Hawk ran impressively. Chitu, as you must be aware, has been outrunning Midnight Hawk.

So some have uncertainty about the Sunland #\'s. That race and those #\'s are important in evaluating Chitu. who is lightly raced. Since Midnight Hawk did not embarrass himself @ Haw.  Chitu is not embarrassed by association.

Since I now have less doubt about Chitu #\'s, I expect that opinion to be shared  by others.  Less doubt (more confidence) may translate to a shorter price in the derby.

Losing @ 2/5 proves he had a whole lot more supporters than detracters.  Jimbo & JBelfior & I may have been the only ones! Yet, if your point is that the two horses had so few doubters that any change in opinion would be irrelevant to derby prices - looks like you are right.

[jbelfior]

Dynamic Impact did not win the Illinois Derby, Midnight Hawk lost it. Agree with TGJB that its unlikely that anyone out of here will go to Kentucky.
IMO, Chitu will end up a pace casualty with the likes of VIT and Wildcat Red,none of who appear likely to carry their speed any further than they already have.

Good Luck,
Joe B.

[touchgold]

well I like chitu and I hope people look at MH race as a bad race. Either way I think Chitu will be near 25-1 derb day unless he looks spectacular derby week.

[Marlin]

I was watching that show pool & thought I saw the same thing, the number decreased dramatically on MH.  Someone was cancelling tons of show tickets.