Jimbo dodges a bullet

[TGJB]

Looks like Midnight Hawk is going to Illinois.

[louisvilleguy1111]

This is a smart move by Baffert and Pegram. They have Hoppertunity already in the Derby and it doesn\'t look like there is anyway this horse can get 1 1/4 so go to Ill. and if you win drawing off then think about the Preakness.

[touchgold]

baffert still has chitu. I guess I am only one giving him a chance. Having no idea what he ran at sunland but he had 4s as 2yr old....and a 4 fist route. Seeing that commissioner ran a 7 and lost by 7 to chitu at sunland, I would think chitu maybe ran a 2 or so....so he will be going forward...and with a trip and another move forward may take a 0 to beat him...and im guessing he will be 25-1 or higher.

[touchgold]

maybe even 30-1

[Acesover]

Considering who owns the horse, having him  in the Illinois Derby will be big  for Hawthorne.

It will be talked about and be  on the local news quite a bit etc

[jimbo66]

U baited me.  And I am biting.

U think maybe Baffert who has a pretty good record with 3 year old decisions might agree with me and know the horse couldn\'t get 1 1/4 on roller skates, and is putting that as a bigger factor in his decision than the \"methodology fast\" figures the horse is getting!

It wasn\'t the workout this weekend.  By all reports he looked better than Chitu.


Now if Baffert can get in touch with general arods trainer and tell him to pull his mediocre miler out of derby consideration, then u will be off the hook

Jim

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I absolutely loved this post

One of the best ever

so so good

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- or, maybe it\'s because he buys our sheets for his horses and the comp, and knows 3\'s don\'t beat zeros...

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I have an idea. Since our prop was Wee Miss Artie v Hawk, why don\'t you give me some other longshots you don\'t like, and I\'ll pick one to use in his place? Ride On Curlin? Uncle Sigh?

[jimbo66]

Lets see what other horses u like in the seminar

I don\'t like Wee Miss Artie.  At all.   I was making a different point.  That midnight hawk is a can of shit.  And his figures make him look better than he is, especially beyond a mile.

I don\'t dislike uncle sigh. Don\'t think he can win, but like him as a horse and would not argue with his figures.  As a matter of fact would take uncle sigh against general Arod as well.  Feel similarly about ride on curlin.  A horse I will use underneath.

[TGJB]

I\'m not trying to find a horse I like. I\'m trying to find one you don\'t, probably based on distance limitations or \"not passing horses\", but that I\'m confidant will run a 4 or better. My position is on the other horse being able to handle dirt.

[covelj70]

JB, serious question

how long can General ARod go without breezing before you discount his good pattern (putting aside some of this groups skepticism about his numbers for a minute)

This is an issue that Phil has been all over on Twitter.

Weird that the horse hasn\'t worked since the Florida Derby.

Probably only time for two breezes before the race which might leave him a little short.

I mean, I don\'t think he has as good a chance as you do but he\'s one of two in the race I have futures tickets on (not going to talk about the 4 I tore up already) so I would like to see this fella coming into the race the right way.

[TGJB]

First of all, I haven\'t taken a position here about the horse other than for a prop bet with Jimbo. I\'ll save my opinions for the seminar.

But sure, all the physical stuff matters. There was a horse a few years ago I otherwise absolutely loved but was coming off being sick, don\'t remember his name. Went from being my play to just a light use. Ran bad.

[covelj70]

maybe Soldat?

I know he was one that was sick and had some antibiotics but I don\'t remember if you liked him or not before he got sick

remember the whole firestorm the antibiotics debate created on the board?  that was fun.

[mjellish]

That was probably Smooth Air.