Derby Picture

[miff]

Rank   Horse   Trainer   Points   Non-Restricted Stakes Earnings
1   California Chrome   Art Sherman   150   $782,250
2   Vicar's in Trouble   Mike Maker   120   $760,000
3   Dance With Fate   Peter Eurton   108   $600,000
4   Wicked Strong   Jimmy Jerkens   102   $640,000
5   Samraat   Rick Violette Jr.   100   $650,000
6   Danza   Todd Pletcher   100   $620,000
7   Constitution   Todd Pletcher   100   $600,000
8   Hoppertunity   Bob Baffert   95   $576,000
9   Intense Holiday   Todd Pletcher   93   $527,500
10   Wildcat Red   Jose Garrofalo   90   $665,500
11   We Miss Artie   Todd Pletcher   60   $544,000
12   Ride on Curlin   Billy Gowan   55   $354,387
13   Chitu   Bob Baffert   54   $440,000
14   Tapiture   Steve Asmussen   52   $470,378
15   Midnight Hawk   Bob Baffert   52   $320,500
16   Ring Weekend   H. Graham Motion   50   $260,000
17   General a Rod   Mike Maker   40   $240,000
18   Medal Count   Dale Romans   40   $226,500
19   Candy Boy   John Sadler   30   $380,000
20   Cairo Prince   Kiaran McLaughlin   24   $520,000
21   Uncle Sigh   Gary Contessa   24   $180,000
22   Vinceremos   Todd Pletcher   20   $191,666
23   Harry's Holiday   Mike Maker   20   $152,622
24   Commanding Curve   Dallas Stewart   20   $140,000
25   Pablo Del Monte   Wesley Ward   20   $102,000
26   Bayern   Bob Baffert   20   $100,000
27   Social Inclusion   Manny Azpurua   20   $100,000
28   Big Bazinga   Katerina Vassilieva   14   $92,149
29   Coastline   Mark Casse   13   $131,346
30   Strong Mandate   D. Wayne Lukas   11   $479,166
31   In Trouble   Tony Dutrow   10   $190,000

[big18741]

I think Medal Count is interesting.

Maybe not as a Derby winner but his FOY wasn\'t horrible.
He finished a distant fifth dueling We Miss Artie into submission on the turn and holding off Commissioner late(I know big deal)but he was chasing the pace thru the first six furlongs which isn\'t what he wants to do.

Bluegrass had to be a new top and he\'ll be coming from off the pace on a surface which has been kinder to these poly types.Paddy O Prado and Dullahan were the same idea for Romans.

[miff]

Danza,102 Beyer, slaving off a common performance by Will Take Charge(more weight and ground loss) Another breeding mystery by sprinter Street Boss out of a closing route mare from Hastings Park.Street Boss has never sired a runner to race 10f on any surface.

Dance With Faith,97 Beyer on the brilliance robbing polyrug at Kee(sayonara) where early speed has been horrific.Five of the first six finishers in the BG were towards the back of the field early.

[TreadHead]

I guess I\'ll have to paint the contrarian view once again for the runaway freight train of praise I\'m seeing for CC on twitter and other media.

People seem convinced that yesterday only strengthened the position that CC is far and away head and shoulders above the rest of this field, but I would suggest the opposite.  The only thing yesterday did is completely call into question anything that happened in Arkansas this winter/spring, opening up the question of \"who did Hoppertunity really beat in the Rebel?\"

If you start to question Hoppertunity, you then in turn put more scrutiny on the question of \"who has CC beat in Cali this year\"?  A question that currently is largely bolstered by Hoppertunity in many people\'s eyes, that I would argue looks less impressive the more you look at it.

Chitu beat absolutely NOTHING in the Sunland derby, unless you are going to make an argument that Bourbonize is a good horse by winning an undercard stakes yesterday where most of the horses were running between 7s-10s.  We all see what Commissioner was/is.

And I won\'t even get into the topic of Bayern and the narrative of \"world-beater at SA, good but not good-enough to win away from SA\", as this provided yet another example.  But that\'s ground we\'ve been over before.

I find the irrational exuberance for CC downright amazing.  It\'s as though solid handicappers and journalists that should know better thru experience have completely forgotten that visually impressive winners of Derby prep races fail in the Derby more often than they succeed.

No one seems to want to hear that there is a large cluster or horses all in the same ability range right now (at least on TG), and in a race so closely matched, it comes down to pace, trip, ability to get the distance, and ability to handle the surface type.  This view is in direct conflict with the public view that seems to think CC is already at least 5 lengths better than everyone else.  I guess I shouldn\'t complain, because it is going to create great value on everyone else.

[ajkreider]

Indeed.  Huge race by Pablo (if a bit painful for my 8/3 exacta).  Clearly able to run on multiple surfaces.  A horse to watch for 7F/mile distances.

[Michael D.]

TreadHead Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess I\'ll have to paint the contrarian view
> once again for the runaway freight train of praise
> I\'m seeing for CC on twitter and other media.
>
> People seem convinced that yesterday only
> strengthened the position that CC is far and away
> head and shoulders above the rest of this field,
> but I would suggest the opposite.  The only thing
> yesterday did is completely call into question
> anything that happened in Arkansas this
> winter/spring, opening up the question of \"who did
> Hoppertunity really beat in the Rebel?\"
>
> If you start to question Hoppertunity, you then in
> turn put more scrutiny on the question of \"who has
> CC beat in Cali this year\"?  A question that
> currently is largely bolstered by Hoppertunity in
> many people\'s eyes, that I would argue looks less
> impressive the more you look at it.
>
> Chitu beat absolutely NOTHING in the Sunland
> derby, unless you are going to make an argument
> that Bourbonize is a good horse by winning an
> undercard stakes yesterday where most of the
> horses were running between 7s-10s.  We all see
> what Commissioner was/is.
>
> And I won\'t even get into the topic of Bayern and
> the narrative of \"world-beater at SA, good but not
> good-enough to win away from SA\", as this provided
> yet another example.  But that\'s ground we\'ve been
> over before.
>
> I find the irrational exuberance for CC downright
> amazing.  It\'s as though solid handicappers and
> journalists that should know better thru
> experience have completely forgotten that visually
> impressive winners of Derby prep races fail in the
> Derby more often than they succeed.
>
> No one seems to want to hear that there is a large
> cluster or horses all in the same ability range
> right now (at least on TG), and in a race so
> closely matched, it comes down to pace, trip,
> ability to get the distance, and ability to handle
> the surface type.  This view is in direct conflict
> with the public view that seems to think CC is
> already at least 5 lengths better than everyone
> else.  I guess I shouldn\'t complain, because it is
> going to create great value on everyone else.



yeah, the more demanding surface/extra eighth of a mile thing certainly reared its ugly head in the Ark Derby.

and Bayern was bred fine to get that extra 1/8.

[jimbo66]

will disagree with that.

Bayern ran like a short horse.  He was seemingly \"put away\" by a lousy longshot, then found a bit more run in the stretch. Don\'t think the distance was the problem. Either not as good as some thought or a short horse.  Take your pick.

Tread,

You keep saying \"a bunch about the same on figures\", and this is the thorograph board, but so I guess that is in accurate statement in the context of where you are posting it, but in \"performance\" on track, this is not even close.  

Any fool that thinks that General A-Rod is as faster or faster than California Chrome shouldn\'t be playing this game, I don\'t care what the TG figure is.  

I am not necessarily saying TGJB has the figures wrong, but you have to assess the performance holistically.  PHony ground loss that isn\'t relevant in the way the race was run will inflate a figure.  Running with or against a bias affects a performance but isn\'t part of the figure.  Pressing a pace will affect a figure.  Lots of factors.

There is no way that anybody out there is in the same league as California Chrome right now.

That doesn\'t mean he has to translate that form to Churchill or at 1 1/4.  But he is the best right now. Period.  There is no \"bunch of horses at the same ability\".

[FrankD.]

Jimbo,

I couldn\'t agree more; It\'s CC and everyone else. That said his figures are Cali speed friendly, distance is a question and lots of early foot potential in this Derby.

Knocks aside he is a very legitimate Derby favorite whom I will definitely bet against on the majority of my horizontals. He is a must use but as I\'ve said here before this is a Giacomo, Super saver year with whomever is left doing any running in the lane picking up the pieces.

Sad but true our speed for a mile breeding, drug weakened, babied crop of 3 yr olds each and every year makes the country\'s biggest race only the last leg of a pick 4 that we\'re spreading like whores into a mega pool looking for a score!

I could have never imagined myself saying that about the Kentucky Derby.

Frank D.

[jimbo66]

Frank,

I hear you.  he is a horse I would usually bet against as well, but am having a hard time getting enthused about anybody else.  I had high hopes for Bayern, but he was ugly yesterday.  

I don\'t know that california Chrome is a front runner.  I really don\'t.  He rated kindly in many of his races.  I have no problem seeing him sitting 5th to 7th early, at the head of the second flight or the back of the first flight.  I think he has been near the front the last two races just because he is so much better than the competition and has been \"on his toes\".

Right now, I have two other horses I can consider and that is it.  I believe Constitution can run faster than he has shown.  What he did first time out amazed me, his second race was solid albeit bias aided and he was gutsy although not fast last time, fighting the bit for a half mile, then coming through a hole on the fence.  If he improves, he is interesting, at least to me.  The only other horse I can play, albeit while holding my nose, is wicked strong.  He would be my \"pace collapse\" horse.  I have to believe he \"hated Gulfstream\", as opposed to being \"pro-Aqueduct\".  I do like how he ran the last 1/8th of a mile in the Wood.  yes, it was visually enhanced by the others looking for a place to lie down, but he was running.  And if we get the \"giacomo\" type race, I would take my chances with him.

Those are slim pickens.  Was really hoping to make a case for somebody else.

The only other horse I have \"open\", if he gets in the race is Cairo Prince.  I hated his last race, no matter how much ground loss gets padded into his figure.  he was horrible, horrible. But he was so good before that, if he gets into the Derby, works well over the surface and draws OK, he has to be considered.

The rest are garbage to me.  All of them.  

I don\'t remember feeling this way about the Derby horses in the last 10+ years.

[Michael D.]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> will disagree with that.
>
> Bayern ran like a short horse.  He was seemingly
> \"put away\" by a lousy longshot, then found a bit
> more run in the stretch. Don\'t think the distance
> was the problem. Either not as good as some
> thought or a short horse.  Take your pick.


if \"found a bit more run\" means slowing down, then I agree with you. a :13.1 final 1/8 with the place horse cruising right on by.

but sure, Bayern could have been a short horse. Baffert was behind schedule. but a short horse that would probably be running in the Ky Derby (for better or worse) if the Ark Derby had been an 1/8 or even 1/16 shorter.

either way, he\'s a May foal that should have some pretty good development left (and the pedigree for distance is there).

 
> Tread,
>
> You keep saying \"a bunch about the same on
> figures\", and this is the thorograph board, but so
> I guess that is in accurate statement in the
> context of where you are posting it, but in
> \"performance\" on track, this is not even close.  
>
> Any fool that thinks that General A-Rod is as
> faster or faster than California Chrome shouldn\'t
> be playing this game, I don\'t care what the TG
> figure is.  
>
> I am not necessarily saying TGJB has the figures
> wrong, but you have to assess the performance
> holistically.  PHony ground loss that isn\'t
> relevant in the way the race was run will inflate
> a figure.  Running with or against a bias affects
> a performance but isn\'t part of the figure.
> Pressing a pace will affect a figure.  Lots of
> factors.
>
> There is no way that anybody out there is in the
> same league as California Chrome right now.
>
> That doesn\'t mean he has to translate that form to
> Churchill or at 1 1/4.  But he is the best right
> now. Period.  There is no \"bunch of horses at the
> same ability\".

[jimbo66]

Michael,

he ran poorly.  I just don\'t think this is the \"use case\" you seem to want to make as an example of a California horse that couldn\'t get the extra 1/8th of a mile outside of Santa Anita.

And has nothing to do with California Chrome.  

Different cases completely.  One is a seasoned horse with 2 year old foundation and classic prep races.  The other had two starts, missed time and was off schedule, trying to make the dErby

And no I don\'t think he would have made it if the race was shorter.  Different pace, different race.  Who knows.

[Bet Twice]

Jimbo- I don\'t disagree with what you\'re saying but I don\'t understand the constant reference to \"trip inflated\" numbers.  If a horse is wide and therefore traveling a farther distance than if he were in the 1 path shouldn\'t the figure reflect that?  How is a \"wide\" number any less legitimate than a \"non-wide\" number?  I get the argument of not liking a horse because he has no tactical speed and always runs wide but I don\' get looking at a number that was earned during a wide trip as somehow inflated.

[TreadHead]

We are obviously going to agree to disagree on much here.  Visually impressive is only meaningful if the horses the winner was visually impressive over weren\'t tomato cans.

Intense Holiday had to run down a lone pace setter who was busy running a 1.5 (pulled from the ROTW archives) in the Risen Star.  Constitution and Wicked Strong had to perform similar feats in their last races where the pace was more strongly contested, but the pace setters were running very good figs even in defeat.  

CC has never had to do anything even remotely that difficult in his California races.  He got to sit just off tomato can pace setters and draw off on a track that is extremely biased to horses on/near the lead most days.

Hoppertunity may still end up being a good horse, as I\'m sure moving back to Cali on 3 weeks rest and changing from a muddy OAK surface to the SA drag strip (and coming off a new top) meant he was not on his A game that day.  But him aside, Im not seeing anything at all CC has faced that would even finish in the money east of the Mississippi in a G1 route race against some of these NY/FL/LA horses.  CC might be able to beat GAR (I\'m not convinced of that at 10F, but whatever), but GAR would win by open lengths against anything CC has beaten this year.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- you\'re not going to bait me on individual horses. That\'s what the seminar is for.

But I have a question re \"phony ground loss\"-- how have horses who saved ground in the preps done? Ark Derby, Fla Derby, La Derby...

And the prop you said you wanted, Artie v Hawk-- are we going to bet on that? They\'ll be roughly the same price.

[ajkreider]

This crop doesn\'t strike me as particularly slow.  Don\'t have all the figures of course, but an awful lot of these have run a 1 or better.  Since a negative 1 is good enough to win just about any Derby (pace Hard Spun), a bunch are in play.

As far as the distance, three of the final prep winners got the last 3/8ths in under 37 seconds.  Danza right at that number for another, and Wicked Strong in a very solid 37 and change.  Doesn\'t suggest they will be limping home in the Derby.