Passing Grade in the LA Derby...

[derby1592]

This race looks wide open with a bunch of nice 3yo lines.

Clearly, Gradepoint is a play against. Given the post and his running style and the fact that most of the field is about as fast or faster than he is, he is a great play against if he goes off at his 5/2 ML or lower. That is not to say that Gradepoint still might make some noise in the Triple Crown given his solid line, good connections and nice breeding but he is a play against this Sunday.

The trouble is that you can make a good case for most of the others so there is no obvious horse to key.

I pretty much agree with the ROTW analysis with a few quibbles.

I like Borrego a little better than the ROTW. I think that 3/4 pt regression in his last is not that significant and he looks like he could be ready for another forward move and he is very likely to get a rail trip.

I definitely like Shadowland more than the TG analysis. True, he is slow going in but he has a very explosive line. The sort of line that could lead to a big forward move this time of year. A move that may be big enough to win this race. The question is - who is Ralph Nicks? I don\'t follow FG racing that much and had never heard of him until last weekend.

The regulars on this board know I like Shaniko as a Derby prospect. He certainly has a good shot in here but I will be more jazzed about him as the distances start stretching out and he has a little more time to mature. I would like to see him run well in here and pick up some graded earnings but what I really want is to see him stay healthy and wait to peak on the first Saturday in May.

There are a lot of presser types in here and some horses are likely to get a wide trip and there could be a lot of traffic as they turn for home so racing luck will likely play a part in the the outcome.

It should be a good race to watch and we will be able to watch it since it is not being run at a Magna track.

On Sunday, we will see who will get the passing grades and graduate on to the next step toward a Triple Crown degree.

Good luck.

Chris



Post Edited (03-06-04 00:50)