There shouldn't be weight allowances in derby prep races

[covelj70]

That\'s all I have to say about that

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> That\'s all I have to say about that


I never thought about it before because i\'m on the handicapping side of things but wow as an owner that has to suck to not get into the derby because you get beat by a horse with a 7 pound advantage

[richiebee]

Hey Jim:

As an owner with a filly nominated to the Derby, I am sure you would agree that
fillies should receive a weight allowance in preps, as they would in the Derby.

See where you are coming from, but racing secretaries might argue that removing the
weight allowance might have an adverse effect on field size.

[covelj70]

Richie,

Funny you mention that.

I think Keenland has it right, no weight allowances of any kind for the Ashland and the Blue Grass.  Every Blue Grass runner carries 123 and Ashland runners 121.

Testa Rossi wouldn\'t get a weight break if we ran her in the Blue Grass according to the stakes conditions listed on the Keenland website and I am fine with that.  I think that\'s how it should be.  

We gave up a bunch of weight to Verazanno with Falling Sky last year in the Tampa Bay Derby (which was a total joke given the difference between those two in the first place) and then we gave up a bunch of weight to the two horses that finsihed just ahead of us in 2nd and 3rd in the Arkansas Derby.

It all worked out and we got to be in the Derby anyway last year but there was a very real chance last year that the weight we had to give up in the Arkansas Derby could have kept us out of the Kentucky Derby.

Now, I understand people\'s arguments that if the margin of error to make the Derby is that close in the first place, you probably shouldn\'t be running but as I always tell people when they say that to me, you probably haven\'t paid the bills for 50 awful horses that never win a race in the hope of one day getting to walk a horse over in the Derby if you take that stance!

The Gotham weights are completely unfair in my mind and I have aboslutely no skin in the game on that one.  Why should the stakes winners be penalized like that in a race where the winner goes to the Derby and the loser is on the outside looking in?  That\'s dumb.

In large part because of the weights, I like Pletcher\'s horse on the outside tomorrow. The Sam Davis was alot faster on the TGs than on the Beyers and so there\'s value on the outside Pletcher horse.

good luck

[richiebee]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> The Gotham weights are completely unfair in my
> mind and I have aboslutely no skin in the game on
> that one.  Why should the stakes winners be
> penalized like that in a race where the winner
> goes to the Derby and the loser is on the outside
> looking in?  That\'s dumb.
>
> In large part because of the weights, I like
> Pletcher\'s horse on the outside tomorrow. The Sam
> Davis was alot faster on the TGs than on the
> Beyers and so there\'s value on the outside
> Pletcher horse.
>
Jim: I think there is plenty of value in the race, but it does not have to do
with lead in the saddlepads. Your point is very well borne out in the Gotham
though because you have a 7 pound split between Uncle Sigh and Saamrat who
were a length apart in the Withers

The 3 favorites in the Gotham are all NYBs. Now there are some very good NYBs
running all over the world, but I would be surprised if any of these three
prove Derby worthy or even Wood worthy.

Guess I won\'t be getting any discounts at Barnes & Noble.

In the Withers, Uncle Sigh and Samraat dueled with Sam showing some ability to
sit off of a pacesetter. Behind them in third in the Withers was Scotland,
still a maiden. In fourth was Classic Giacanroll, who was dull after pairing
tops in his previous starts.

Sigh and Sam should be joined tomorrow by In Trouble and at one point or
another Extrasexy. If the track is kind or at least fair to closers, I like
Financial Mogul and Harpoon.

I think Harpoon\'s value will be deflated with TAP, King of the Derby Prep,
calling the shots from somewhere in the clubhouse at GP.

Financial Mogul is not particularly fast TG wise with these, but he probably
got a lot out of the Holy Bull, his first two turn try and his first race in
83 days. FM was beaten about 2 lengths by the Risen Star winner in the Holy
Bull. The pedigree is there.

So there is no Kool Aid on my lips. I like a slow TG colt who is eligible for
NW2 LT. I do not know how Bridgmohan ends up back on this guy, and I do not
know why he moved from Palm Meadows to Fair Hillperbaric. Because he is slow
and relatively unproven, I will demand odds slightly above his 10/1 ML.

[jimbo66]

Richie,

As i read your post, trashing the NY Breds, it kind of reminds me of when my wife and daughter occasionally make chauvinistic comments (about women....)

I think it is a VERY UNFAIR statement to say that Uncle Sigh and Samraat may not even prove Wood worthy.  Poppycock.

Both horses are fast, have speed, and carry their speed well around two turns.  They are already Wood-worthy and the top figures they have run make them \"derby relevant\".  

Personally, I am stuck being a bit more of an Uncle Sigh fan, and will press him tomorrow again in the multi-race bets, but won\'t be surprised if Samraat beats me and runs well again.

As for Harpoon, he is a slug, with no speed, a style that makes him lose ground regularly, along with a post that is sure to help that ground loss be significant.  So he will get another good figure, while really not being a contender tomorrow, at least that is what he looks like now.  The only I see him relevant is if you get a very fast, contested pace, with a strung out field.  

Richie, please be kind to your fellow NY-Breds.........

Jim

[richiebee]

Jim:

Numbers wise Sam and Sigh are certainly competitive, but they are coming out of
restricted races and a very weak (my opinion) Withers.

Sigh obviously very sharp based on last Monday\'s training track move.

If you fancy Sigh you have to hope Nakatani can make 116 and can get a clear
lead.

[jimbo66]

Nakatani won\'t make 116.   Will book that.

But I believe u have a bad read on uncle sigh.  Don\'t think he needs the lead.  Will be shocked if he is sent tomorrow.  He was sent last time because it was basically a two horse race.  And he was inside.  Expect him to be several lengths off the pace and make a move on the turn.

But we will see.

As for the withers being weak. The fact that both of them were in it means it wasn\'t too weak.  As opposed to the disgusting race at Tampa harpoon came out of.  A crowded finish with a horse that looked dead on the turn, winning.  

No thanks.

The Dutrow horse is interesting and so is extra sexy hipster.  

Jim

[TMW]

I believe Nakatani is closer to 116 than you think. Not sure wise to book it.

For instance, he made 118 the other day at SA.

[Topcat]

TMW Wrote:
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> I believe Nakatani is closer to 116 than you
> think. Not sure wise to book it.
>
> For instance, he made 118 the other day at SA.

118 remains Corey\'s best golfing weight.