If "ifs" and "buts" were candy and nuts....

[PapaChach]

I usually stand aside and let the big boys play in this here sandbox, but what with a little too much wine in the bloodstream, a lack of comments here tonight, a bruising fifteen rounder with the wife (verbal only, folks, I ain\'t no Chris Brown; she threw a self-indulgent hissy fit on the ride home from the Breeder\'s Cup party in a total overreaction to the seven year old\'s mouthy misbehavior, I called her on it, and it went sideways from there), and a thoroughly frustrating day of chasing the BC snake in the books, well, with a steady stream of psychic acid reflux plaguing me, just thought I\'d vent a bit.

Had two strong opinions going into the day: that Laugh Track and Za Approval would run big at overlaid odds.

I have a very set way of handicapping. I look at the Form first. If I like the day and think I might bet what for me is a lot, I will purchase the TGs; if I\'m not crazy about the day and think I might bet, say $80-$120 on the day, I don\'t spring for the $25. I know this probably sounds pathetic to the whales out there, but to my mind, if you\'re going to bet $80 for a day, spending $25 on performance figures is overkill. I also realize the flip side of this is that if I spent the $25 I might see something to convince me to spend more than $80 on the day, but past experience has taught me that if I can\'t get a good read on the day just looking at the Form, I wind up doing stupid things like chasing random TG numbers out of context, essentially misusing the product and wasting my money.

Anyway, I was tickled pink when, after looking over the BC Form, both Za Approval and Laugh Track looked good on the figs; when they both got at least mildly encouraging comments in the write-ups, I felt even better.

My best friend threw the party this year, and a few of us pitched in a few bucks to bet together. We had about a yard to play with. Of course we all played our own bets on the side, but anyway, we decided to spend $500, half the bankroll, on the late pick four, and the rest on verticals.

I was put in charge of putting the plays together.

Spent most of my time thinking about the plays before Baffert won the Juvenile so was hedging toward his stock $hitting the bed a la 2012, and thought we\'d have to play against The Dude in the finale.

Basically decided to play it four ways, for varying amounts: one ticket with The Fugue and Wise Dan winning, one with either of them winning, and one with both of them losing.

Used Magician in the tickets with The Fugue losing so had two of the four tickets going into the Sprint. By the way, I don\'t know about the rest of you, but on BC horizontals where I\'m spreading, I am pretty much using any Euro entered in any turf race no matter the TG figs, no matter how bad the form looks. If I happened to see one who\'d been beaten an average of 78 lengths in eight straight I might consider leaving it off, with the operative word being might.

Leaned heavily on Laugh Track in the Sprint; hated Secret Circle at that price, knew even when putting in the picks they\'d bed the snot out of him. Went $50 win/$20 place on Laugh Track on my own account and considered going $100 win on him with the syndicate funds but sat chilly.

I\'ll just say, had Laugh Track had the luck to draw posts anywhere from, say, maybe, two through eight, I think he gets up. Saw him explode late and we all started screaming, but alas, as we say in the world of collegiate admissions about kids who don\'t start getting top grades until halfway through their junior year, too little, too late.

A little frustrated, a little shaken, and a little too involved with the spread my buddy had laid out, I didn\'t focus on getting down on the Mile until late in the game. We still had about half our bankroll left and I thought about going exactas, $100-150 of Wise Dan over Za Approval, reversed for $20-$30, but decided I needed to calm down after the Sprint. Chickened out and went $40/$10 instead. One of the few places I disagreed w/TG was on Silentio, who ran 3rd at a zillion to one. For whatever reason, I didn\'t like him. Not sure I want to see what the tri paid, though I guess with Wise Dan on top it couldn\'t have been that much.

Decided at that point to preserve as much of the syndicate capital as possible; many of the participants are total novices to whom a single $25 \"share\" is a big deal, so we keyed Mucho and The Dude in varying, good-sized exactas over Last Gunfighter and Flat Out, and threw in a tri keying Mucho, The Dude (after Baffy won two, I no longer felt The Dude was a lock for an STB, which he ultimately achieved) over a few; to shave a few bucks off the ticket I moved the Lukas horse from the place/show spots into the show spot only, one of the few other spots I disagreed with TG was on the O\'Brien horse in the Classic, I thought he had a shot and had him in there...

If ifs and buts...

If Laugh Track had drawn a better post...

If I\'d gone bigger on the Mile exacta...

If I\'d kept Will Take Charge in the 2-hole...

Well, back now after ducking outside into the wind and the cold for one of life\'s great pleasures, the late-night, drunken cigarette. Through the headphones, on repeat, a live acoustic version of what may well be my favorite song of all time, Springsteen\'s \"Atlantic City\" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kNT9uP5bW7g for those of you scoring at home).

Another swig of wine, and I think back to a Breeder\'s Cup day from not all that long ago, 2007. I made one token bet on that one, $50 win on my best friend\'s account, the friend who hosted the party today, on Purim, who I\'d hit on in his prior race at Keeneland.

I spent that BC day in an overcrowded intensive care unit waiting room, with the life of my first wife shockingly hanging in the balance, and while she made it through the day, she didn\'t make it that much longer, and I found myself widowed, at the not-so-ripe age of forty-one, with three kids aged 8,3, and fourteen and a half months. Talk about ifs and buts: if she\'d gone to NYC or Boston for operation, as I\'d begged her to; if her brain hadn\'t swelled; if they\'d caught the clot a half hour sooner, before it dropped into her brain stem.

When I look at it like that, the day doesn\'t seem so bad, I suppose. The new wife and I will make up over a pot of coffee tomorrow; whatever happened tonight on the ride home, on the whole she\'s pretty spectacular and I\'m lucky to have her. A day spent with dear friends eating high quality food and just missing on some bets is a pretty good one; looked at like that, I'll call the day a big win and let the frustration dissolve into the deep red wine and the deep dark night.

[P-Dub]

PapChach,

Your posts are always a great read and heartfelt. Your outlook on all things is amazing, considering what you have been through. Great respect for you.

[Topcat]

Great stuff.

[alydar61]

Great post!