Some thoughts on the BC

[covelj70]

First, thanks to everyone on the board for the positive vibes. I really do appreciate it. I feel like team TG is my corner this weekend and thats really cool.

I just got back from clockers corner and wanted to post some thoughts on the races where I think I have a different view before things get too nuts for the rest of the weekend and I don\'t have a chance to post. Kudos to Jimbo for getting a great handicapping vibe going on the board. Much appreciated buddy.

In terms of the Friday races, my strongest opinion of the day is that Bobby\'s Kitten will win the juv turf and that outstrip is the biggest threat. The O\'Brien horses have an incredible amount of steam in this race and most are handing the race to them and either of them could certainly win tomorrow. That said, I am taking a stand against. Top jock Moore gets off one of them to go to the other who hasn\'t won on the turf yet. I absolutely don\'t mind playing euros to jump up figure wise on firm turf and more pace but I don\'t like playing favs who are being asked to do something they have never done before and winning a turf race is a minimum requirement for me for a fav in a 14 horse field! I will key Bobby\'s kitten on top in the race and in the verticals and box him with outstrip in an exacta

Next up is the dirt mile. I like taptowne and Bruno with Goldencents. Taptowne has strong figures and projects to save ground every step of the way and is 15 to 1 on the line. Bruno is definitely a wise guy horse having run against the bias last time but I really do see him being a factor here. Goldencents is an obvious include in the exotics but I like the others more to win. I will play a three horse e box. I will spread a bit deeper in the pick 6 and pick 4 as there are other horses here that could win if they work out a trip (ie pants on fire, Verazzano, etc)

I already posted my thoughts on the Juvy filly turf race so no need to belabor that point.

In the distaff, its a two horse exacta box for me with beholder and royal delta. No one is going to get rich playing that but there should be a bit of value in beating princess.  The pattern and her training suggest she already ran her bc race a few weeks ago. Amazing filly, can\'t wait to see her next year.

On Saturday, one of my strongest opinions is in the juv fillies and I love Rosalind here. Note that two back she ran the big figure for the first time she did it without lasix. Great rider switch, great post for her running style and great value on the morning line. I will play her with husion\'s horse and untappable who both have strong figure power

The Fugue is the most likely winner on Saturday in my view and I will key her on top of a number of others in the e and tri including vagabond shoes who is fast and who drew well. Don\'t leave out chads two horses underneath either.

The juv is wide open and I am playing for big balloons in that one. I am playing medal count and Smarty\'s echo along with the team valor horse. I will spread in exotics bc this race is wide open but I won\'t take a short price on anything I here

I loved Ron the Greek in the classic so I am back to the drawing board there and would frankly appreciate everyone\'s insights now into that race as I am clueless now that rig is out. I loved ft. Learned last year and played him heavily but there\'s too much pace in this years classic for him. He doesn\'t win when he doesn\'t have the lead and he\'s not going to get the lead here. Moreno is after than he is. I thought it set up for a closer but I can\'t find one I like alot other than the Greek. Flat out doesn\'t ship well and may be tailing off. I tempted to try the euro in this race but again, thoughts appreciated.

Great luck to everyone. Hit em hard.

Sorry for any typos, etc, rushing to get to a lunch.

[CHOWDERMAN]

good luck jim.....in the classic i have to believe a closer will win this...think drosselmeyer a few years back....too much speed, it\'s going to be crowded on the turn coming for home.....i think gunfighter and flat out are probably the ones, what\'s your thought on how they look out there...word from steve haskin is flat out looks terrific...need to know about gunfighter....if this pace isn\'t hot, oh well, but it should be a fast one.....that is all

[Tavasco]

I agree.
Note-Only three horses really running at the finish of JC Gold Cup. Ron The Greek, Flat Out and The Last Gunfighter. Something strange about Last Gunfighter\'s trip in that race? Why would Chad bring him? BOGO airfare? Of course even minor placings are profitable.

[TreadHead]

Hi Jim, good luck on Sat!  Definitely planning on using your horse, though the SA turf is normally pretty speedy, it does seem that closers are playing more favorably than normal this meet and with a decent pace setup your filly has a great shot.

Is there any usable info about Verrazano\'s on-track appearance there?  While I know the vast majority of people can\'t wait to play against him, my opinion is no surprise in that if he is right physically that there is no one in this field who can beat him (ground we\'ve all been over before).

And if he\'s not 100% right, then he probably will not finish in the money.

In terms of Saturday, from everything I\'ve been seeing, there isn\'t much reason to play against the Fugue or Wise Dan, and I think the bookends of that pk4 could be quite chaotic.  I have no solid advice to offer in the Classic and will be spreading very deep there.  While that is an extremely uncreative play, I think the best we can do is hope a horse like Last Gunfighter or Palace Malice wins at larger odds and can provide a marginal payoff.  

Hopefully there are some better prices to be had in the first part of the card, but haven\'t gotten that far yet.  Good luck.

[CHOWDERMAN]

know you\'re busy, however, any word on who looks good on track would be greatly appreciated...thanks...

[P-Dub]

Jim,
Appreciate the thoughts on the races, best of luck to you on the track and at the windows. I\'m just starting to look at Friday\'s card and hope to add something later.

Hopefully we get a chance to meet up after your filly runs. Anybody else attending the races this weekend??

[P-Dub]

What do you guys think about starting a separate thread for each race?? Might be easier to follow discussions. Just a thought...

[covelj70]

Honestly, things have been so chaotic that I haven\'t gotten to see alot of the other horses. I spent most of the time in chads barn and I think Bobby\'s kitten looks sensational but other than that, I would be really stretching to give helpful opinions.

It\'s funny how different this is than derby week where you can focus on only 20 horses and they all hit the track at the same time. There are dozens of horses on the track at the same time and only a few of them are bc horses so its really hard to get a good read.

Wish I could have been more helpful on this front

[P-Dub]

Race 1: If #13 My Slew draws in the 8\'1 ML looks good.

Race 3: I\'ll take the longer of the Hollendorfer horses, #2 Life Is A Joy (9/2). Should show speed from an inside post, speed been very good in 2 turn races on the dirt. Forward moving line, has kept good company, not too worried about the BO in last.
Using 3,5,11,13/2,10,13/2 in an early P3.

Race 4: #4 Meinerthageni (8/1) looks interesting. Figures are as good as anyone else in here. Acted up last race, had trouble and was eased. EX with 8,9

Race 5: the 2 and 12 look best, but not a lot of value here unless the ML favorite takes money. Solid keys in horizontals.

Race 6: Wide open race, going with Hollendorfer\'s #8 Blueskysnrainbows. Spreading in P3 with the 1,3,4,5,6, hoping to skinny up some of the other legs.

Race 7: Agree with Jim C, $5 Bobby\'s Kitten looks very tough.

Race 8: #1 Taptowne at a price. Plenty of speed lined up, but his rail draw may allow him to get the lead and play come and get me. At 15/1 ML, I\'ll take my chances. Competitive on number power.  Again, speed very good going 2 turns lately.

Race 9: #2 Al Thakira (6/1) gets a nice inside post going a mile, doesn\'t race on Lasix, has a forward moving line, and has done nothing wrong so far. Anything close to the ML is a solid key for me. Jim\'s horse is a must use as well as the longshot JB mentioned in the seminar. #13 Sky paynter also is a use.

Race 10: Royal Delta is the best filly,  no reason to think she won\'t fire her best shot. Princess of Sylmar ran her big race last time, as this race was an afterthought. I have a soft spot for her, as the Great Mike Smith brought hew home for $78 in the Oaks, making my day. (Yes, I am allowed one Mike Smith reference). Beholder loves the track, but don\'t see her getting the best of RD.

Its way past my bedtime, looking at 4 hours of sleep before getting up and catching a flight down south. Looking forward to a fantastic 2 days of racing, and wish everyone the best of luck. hope to meet up with a few of you this weekend.

[Rick B.]

Thanks, Paul -- your easy to read, quick-hitter style

is a big help for those of us that have been way over

the Information Overload redline for days already.


Good luck this extended \"Horseplayer Heaven\" weekend!

[Rick B.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Wish I could have been more helpful on this front

I don\'t know how you are finding the will to post.
I would be on straight vodka and Red Bull, right up
to post time, if I had on the line that which you do.
You have supplied plenty of info already. Thanks!

Again, Best of Luck today, and don\'t worry at all about
your post 12 -- if you have enough horse, Lezcano can figure
out the correct trip; he\'s a turf wizard when he wants to be.

[mjellish]

Couple of general thoughts about Friday.

I think there\'s value to be had in the Pick 4, and for me it all centers around playing against Verrazano.  I can\'t believe how much this colt reminds me of Quality Road.  He has freakish talent but can\'t seem to hold it together.  I think that big one in the Haskell set him back some and I don\'t he\'s been right since.  Not only do I not see him winning here, I don\'t see him hitting the board.  I could be wrong, of course.  But he\'s also not been very impressive in the mornings.  He\'s been working on more or less even terms with Capo Bastone except for his last work.  For that, Verrazano switched workmates and worked with a maiden claimer.  I think the barn was looking for a confidence builder there, and to me that\'s a bad sign.  Especially because Princess of Sylmar then got Bastone as her final workmate and she made him look pretty ordinary the other day.  Verrazano is going to take a lot of money in the Pick 4, not necessarily because everyone likes him to win but more because they are afraid to let him beat them.  I see it as dead money, and so I am going to toss him and hope that gives me an edge.  Plus there\'s the whole \"Off Pletcher\" at the Breeders Cup angle, which I\'m not going to get into other than to say that it is an angle that I tend to subscribe to with his horses that have hype around them and are coming off of unusually big figures.

To me, that leaves the Dirt Mile sort of wide open, so I am going to spread in the Pick 4.  But I do like Brujo de Olleros as key in the verticals and I am going to lean that way a bit in the Pick 4 as well.  He should get a good trip from the 4 post and I thought he ran very well in the Kelso.  Lot of buzz about Goldencents in this race, who I think could win but is going to go off at shorter odds than he should after the tough draw into the 12 post.  That\'s a pretty tough spot to break from and not get hung out wide all the way around the first turn.  He could run a strong figure and not win.

I know a few people are talking about singling Bobby\'s Kitten in the Juv Turf, but I am going to go a little deeper here.  As I have said on this board before, I think the way the Euro\'s run tends to compress their overall figures.  They tend to go much slower early and it\'s all about the finish.  There\'s rarely a need to go fast early.  When the fig\'s are based partly on the final time, that gives them a slower overall figure because horses can\'t come home in 21 flat to make up for a 50 sec first half mile.  So I tend to adjust for this, sometimes, and by about 2 points on TG.  That puts 3/4 of the Euros right there.  And almost anything can happen when you put 13 two year olds on the grass in front of a big crowd.  So I will use Bobby\'s Kitten a little stronger on some tickets, but I am going to spread a bit here.

In the Juv Fillies Turf I think Vorda is going to take some beating if she handles the turns.  The one she lost to, a colt named No Nay Never, looks like he may be kind of a freak. For the rest of the Euros, I really liked the way Chriselliam finished strongly and went from last to first in her last race, which was a slow early pace race.  But I don\'t like how she let Chief Barker come back and beat her in the Ascendant Stakes.  I think the connections have figured out that this filly needs to be taken back and allowed to make one big run.  She looks great on the track from what I hear and gallops powerfully.  The other Euro, Al Thakhira, is very highly regarded and could be any type.  She hasn\'t lost yet.  I don\'t know how you can\'t include her.  I think Jim\'s filly has as good a chance as any if she can work out a trip from the 12 hole, which may take some doing.  I don\'t like how Ready to Act had to be really asked to finish in her last work, so she\'s a toss for me breaking from the 11 spot.  Another spread race for me with a slight tilt towards Vorda, and Vorda is also my key horse in the verticals.

In the distaff, I am going to single Royal Delta on most of my tickets.  I am of the opinion that Billy Mott is about as good as anyone about pointing for a race (my favorite trainer for that angle is Carl Nafzger).  Mott seemed to back off Royal Delta in the AM after the Personal Ensign and use the Beldame as a prep for this.  Just look at her works.  But ever since then Royal Delta has went right back to being her usual dynamo in the mornings.  Her last work was about as good a work as anything you will ever see, period.  And if she runs her A race I don\'t think anyone else has a big enough forward move in them to beat her.  Sure she could lose, but that loss in the Beldame should add just enough value to make it worth the risk.  And other than Wise Dan, I make Royal Delta the most likely winner of all the BC races.  Even though there are only 6 in here this is going to be a fantastic race!

I have no opinion in the Marathon.  Hope to have time to post some thoughts on Saturday tomorrow.

Let\'s get \'em!

[P-Dub]

I hate Mike Smith.

Why would I include him in an exacta? Not a good day so far.

[P-Dub]

Wide Mike, huh??

Another winning ride from the winningest BC jockey of all time. Great ground saving trip around the turn. Nice start to the late horizontals.