Barislow wins Toccet appeal

[bdhsheets]

Toccet was reassigned a lower impost for the Strub stakes at SA, which makes him look at a tad bit better in the ROTW. From highweight of 123 to 117lbs.



Post Edited (02-06-04 23:12)

[derby1592]

At the new weight, I think Toccet has a pretty good shot in the ROTW.

I also agree with the TG analysis that Formal Attire is an obvious play at the morning line. My one disagreement with their analysis of FM is that Serpe is cold right now. His %win stats seem to imply that (only 8% winners in last 90 days) but if you look at his figure-based training stats, his horses have been running at or better than their tops about 55% of the time in the last 90 says (22 starters), which is pretty good and probably means that Serpe\'s horses have been firing but he has been running them in tough spots (which he is doing once again). A good example of how figure-based stats can provide insight you don\'t get from win percentage.

I pretty much agree with the rest of the analysis with the exception of Eye of the Tiger. I think his line looks potentially explosive and a new top gives him a shot at a likely big price. I agree with the analysis in that a wide trip is likely, which is a concern. However, if Espinoza can work a decent trip with the long run to the turn, he just may pull the upset.

The favs all seem to have question marks so this one looks playable although During is about as game as they come. I just hope that he and Midas Eyes make each other work hard early from the outside posts.

Good luck

Chris

[TGAB]

Good points all Chris. Glad you brought up Serpe\'s record in the last 90 days in the figure-based profile. His horses have been running well, overall, which makes the case for Formal Attire even stronger. We might see a union between the figure-based and run-based profiles today.

Can\'t argue that at 15-1 Eye Of The Tiger offers some value. He hasn\'t bounced on dirt which is to his credit but I have a more negative slant of the line than you. We\'ll see.

Good luck.