Kentucky trainers at Spa

[makomaniac]

The Kentucky trainers at Spa are performing poorly.Hard to believe that LB\'s Expression could look that good in today\'s 3rd race and run that poorly. She was not 100% fit but completely outlooked the field. With any improvement from two to three years of age she should have wired this field with no problem. I have to put her in my stable watch. I suspect that Tom Amoss will ship her to a venue where he is not afraid to give the filly \"whatever\" she needs. She will probably run off the TV screen.So tough handicapping if drugs are on or off.

[bellsbendboy]

Hi Mako,

A few questions.

How \"could a horse look that good\" if it was attempting a QUANTUM leap in class and had not raced in ten months?

From my keyboard Amoss does a superb job of training for his owners, and when you post a different venue where would you send her.

Lastly, I can certainly see where you find handicapping difficult.

Sorry to be a bit harsh but you earned it.  bbb

[richiebee]

BBB:

Was thinking of you briefly during the running of Saturday\'s Sword Dancer,
because as I recall you put a lot of emphasis on the placement/ removal of the
inner rails on various turf courses. The brief moment I was thinking of you was
in the stretch when Euro invader Nutello burst through on the inside, seemingly
drawing on even terms with Twilight Eclipse for the lead.

I had read earlier that the temporary rails had been removed (this should be
noted in the charts) and there was my strangely named Euro, who I had a large
double onto the Alabama chalk with, there on what should have been the best part
of the course, right on the hedge. Of course you would instruct me that the
error in my logic was that the inside part of the course, which has been
protected by temporary rails, is not necessarily the best going.

Not that Nutello enjoyed a dream trip waiting for an opening on the hedge.
According to the DRF chart for the race, Nutello \"was a bit eager while inside
on the first turn, became rank while dropping back a bit first time down the
stretch, was rated along the hedge, came under urging on the final turn, drafted
behind rivals leaving that bend, steadied at the top of the stretch, dropped to
the inside then made a bid along the rail, battled into the final sixteenth,
then was outkicked but finished with good determination for the show.\"

Nutello is owned by Wertheimer et Frere and the trainer of record was Carlos
Laffon- Parias. The Wertheimer\'s American runners are trained by Pletcher, so
will be interested to see if this one stays stateside with TAP.

Also of interest: DRF PPs said Nutello would not be administered Lasix, and
their chart confirms this, but one of the TVG yappers mentioned that it had been
announced that Nutello HAD been given Lasix. Obviously becomes more interesting
next time if this one comes back first time Lasix, first time TAP.

Also also of interest: The filly Tannery, a half length behind Nutello, lost
ground on all three turns and was seven wide into the stretch.

[makomaniac]

I guess that breaking your maiden at Delaware vs open company in a maiden special weight on the lead in 21.4 45.3 57.4 104.1 in debut would make this filly outclassed in any NYbred NW1X allowance. Really! Some quantum leap. That field was mediocre at best for that level, as evidenced by the winner who was a 20K claimer.Her top figure was a TG 9. To think that a filly who ran TG 11 at 2yo could come out and run a 7 or 8 is unreasonable?
 Please follow this filly\'s next start. I guarantee she will run a minimum TG 6 if it is somewhere like Delaware or Kentucky. My point is the filly should have run much better because the trainer can definitely have them ready off a layoff. If this had been Kentucky or Louisiana this filly would have been long gone.
I know what I am looking at in the paddock and post parade. Amazing that this trainer can\'t get anything to run anywhere close to an out of town performance in NY.He has failed this meet with some very fast horses at short prices.There is obviously some issue holding her back but when she gets that little extra help out of town she will win.

[Rick B.]

makomaniac Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I guess that breaking your maiden at Delaware vs
> open company in a maiden special weight on the
> lead in 21.4 45.3 57.4 104.1 in debut would make
> this filly outclassed in any NYbred NW1X
> allowance. Really! Some quantum leap.

FWIW, I never expect any shipper from Delaware to be
able to replicate their good races at ANY other track...
and I honestly don\'t remember the last time I got burned
by a Delaware horse.

Draw your own conclusions.

[makomaniac]

That definitely doesn\'t apply to Graham Motion, Michael Matz, or Jonathon Sheppard. If you are talking about dirt racing I might agree. There are a few cheaters who have ruined racing there. Very similar as to what has happened at Monmouth. Certain trainers, three in particular have defied logic all meet with their claims and overall percentages. It is like they reinvented how to train a thoroughbred.
Play a Monmouth dirt race at your own risk. It won\'t be addressed  until a former $7.5k claimer wins a graded stake and embarrasses a big name horse.
 Lucky these guys didn\'t claim any 3yo colts. Verrazano may have had his hands full.

[makomaniac]

BTW check the result of yesterday\'s 9th at the Spa. The winner came from Delaware and beat a good allowance field on turf at 18-1. Her last race was a prep at Delaware for Motion.

[Rick B.]

makomaniac Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> BTW check the result of yesterday\'s 9th at the
> Spa. The winner came from Delaware and beat a good
> allowance field on turf at 18-1. Her last race was
> a prep at Delaware for Motion.

The guys that are tuned in to what is going on at
Delaware are obviously \"thumbs down\" on Del shippers
with only one big number...and from the last race,
as well (even if it is a Motion horse).

How else do you explain the huge 18-1 odds?
 
Even if it is only \"a few guys\" at Delaware that are
up to no good...see how it casts a shadow over the
whole program? I still say it\'s safer to throw all the
Del shippers out, or just pass the race(s) instead...
even if I see the trainer listed as \"J. Christ\".

[TGJB]

First of all, I\'m still kicking myself for not betting the Motion filly or tri/super two races earlier. Started watching the Met game and lost track.

My guess is we had that filly much faster than other figure makers, and in general shippers tend to be underbet at Saratoga. This one looked to the public like a filly coming in off a weak third at a minor track.

Regardless, Motion and Shepphard are a diferent ballgame from the jump-up guys at Delaware and Mth.

[bellsbendboy]

Hey Richie,

I do not have much comment on the race you mentioned; but appreciate you thinking of me; no matter how briefly!

Turf course configuration is a major forecaster of how the race will be run and largely ignored by almost all cappers; especially on the smaller courses. Courses are crowned by design and always drain in both directions.  Sometimes the outside ( depending on the placement) is better and if you are not there physically it is tough to discern.  

On the Lasix issue, horses are extremely claustrophobic and when they are down inside, rank, or otherwise uncomfortable, they stress and that causes the bleeding.  Extra attention to first time Lasix if this is the case, always.

As for this thread, it seemed to start with \"Amoss is not using so therefore I lost\" so that is why I jumped in.  In this era of instant gratification the handicappers are dying off and the new breed often \"caps\" integers rather than horses; its quicker and sometimes they cash a ticket.  I mentioned a \"quantum leap in class\" and got back Delaware Park and past speed figures as if they made a difference in evaluating class on this particular runner.

How far is the refrigerator from living room downs? bbb

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> Not that Nutello enjoyed a dream trip waiting for
> an opening on the hedge.
> According to the DRF chart for the race, Nutello
> \"was a bit eager while inside
> on the first turn, became rank while dropping back
> a bit first time down the
> stretch, was rated along the hedge, came under
> urging on the final turn, drafted
> behind rivals leaving that bend, steadied at the
> top of the stretch, dropped to
> the inside then made a bid along the rail, battled
> into the final sixteenth,
> then was outkicked but finished with good
> determination for the show.\"
>
> Nutello is owned by Wertheimer et Frere and the
> trainer of record was Carlos
> Laffon- Parias. The Wertheimer\'s American runners
> are trained by Pletcher, so
> will be interested to see if this one stays
> stateside with TAP.
>
> Also of interest: DRF PPs said Nutello would not
> be administered Lasix, and
> their chart confirms this, but one of the TVG
> yappers mentioned that it had been
> announced that Nutello HAD been given Lasix.
> Obviously becomes more interesting
> next time if this one comes back first time Lasix,
> first time TAP.

Nutello comes back in the Joe Hirsch. First time Lasix, Graham Motion, not TAP, at the controls. For me, second half of a cold Flower Bowl/ Joe Hirsch double with:
 
> Tannery, a half length behind Nutello, lost
> ground on all three turns and was seven wide into
> the stretch.

Nutello is 8/1 ML. Tannery is 8/5, she being coupled with the speedy Laughing.
If uncoupled, Tannery as an uncoupled interest also might be the same 8/1.

NYRA\'s lack of imagination -- or apathy towards what would make horseplayers happy -- evidenced by the following:

1)Coupled entries in Grade 1 stakes.
2)No all G1 Stakes P6.
3)No all G1 Stakes P5.

All of which would have increased interest and handle on what is a very interesting day of Racing with a capital \"R\".