Orb draws the rail

[Perfect Drift]

How does this change anyone\'s thoughts?

[justwin]

The rail has not had a good % for the Preakness. I think its a negative as he may have to wait and get shuffled back before making his wide run.

[ajkreider]

I\'m sure it\'s not what they were looking for, but he won the FOY from the rail.  The 2 and 3 horses should show speed so I don\'t think it\'s an issue.  Liked WTC\'s draw.

[vp612]

I think it\'s a good post for him,no ground loss,let\'s the race unfold and then make his run.He\'s got a good jock,i would rather be there than 7, 8,or 9

[mjellish]

I disagree 1000% percent.  This colt makes a living galloping along at steady 12sec 1/8th\'s and then circling the field.  If you pin him down inside he\'s got two choices, try to go faster to get out, or drop back to get out, into his comfort zone.  Either way, he may have to do something different early on than he has been.

Now no one can say for sure how the race unfolds.  U never know, maybe the two speed horses just to his outside break quick, he gets out into the 3 path and lets whatever happens from there happen.  Maybe he gets a good spot midpack or towards the rear on the outside.  But I would bet everything I have, EVERYTHING, that Shug would have taken the 9 hole over the 1 hole in a heartbeat with this guy.  

He\'s not worried about ground loss.  Only trouble.

[MO]

Before the draw, Shug on record saying he wanted the 8 post.

After the draw : \"Oh well, we\'ll be alright\".

[mjellish]

By the way, this is a great draw for Goldencents.  He hated the kickback in the Derby.  Watch the replay and watch him toss his head.  He can go now or let Titletown Five have the lead and stalk him from the 2 path.

[TGJB]

Him being worried about it doesn\'t necessarily make it the right thing to be worried about. If he were 3w4w and someone else got a rail trip he\'d be spotting them 5 lengths.

But I don\'t think the draw made much difference one way or the other. There are enough different running styles in this field to spread them out.

[mjellish]

I get it TGJB.  But horses have a comfort zone.  You take a horse who hates being pinned inside and give him a rail trip where he can\'t get out and I don\'t care how much ground he saves.  He probably won\'t run his race.  Much like you take a horse like Goldencents who\'s used to being up front and throw him out there with 3 or 4 other horses who can out sprint him the first 1/4 mile and watch him take the kickback for the first time and see how he runs.  

There\'s more to it than just saving ground.  I\'m not saying Orb can\'t run his race.  We don\'t know that yet.  I\'m just saying the rail draw adds another variable and a reason for consternation.  Just my opinion.  

They never make it easy in this game.

[vp612]

You are saying you would surrender  a length to a length and a half on the \"chance \"that he could get a bad trip from the rail. Boy You are some optimist.

[mjellish]

Glass is always half full of Bourbon, Vito.  And when it\'s gone I always know how to get more, no matter what time it is.

By the way, I think you are a great addition to the board here.

[vp612]

Thanks,when you  have lost as many races by a neck like I have,you are very aware of ground.

[mjellish]

I agree.  Ground loss is important.  Trust me, I get it.

But IMO, running styles/comfort zones when it comes to horses are also important.  The trick is knowing which variable supercedes the other one in any given race.  

I don\'t know the answer to that, for sure, with regards to Orb in the Preakness.  But what I do know is he seems to run his race when he is outside in the clear galloping along.  What I don\'t know is if he will run his race if he doesn\'t get that kind of a trip.  On the plus side, he won the FOY from the 1 hole in a race that had a lot of early speed, much like the Preakness.  He also won his N1X after having to check off heels into the first turn and being shuffled back.  So it\'s not like if it all hits the fan he doesn\'t have any experience at all.  

But to me, having an outside post and a likely trip in the clear - as he has been running and winning with - would have been much better.  It eliminated a variable, and that\'s sometimes the difference between being able to pull the trigger on a big bet or not.  There\'s only 9 in here and almost half of them are early speed types, so I wasn\'t really worried about ground loss.

[MO]

From DRF:

In hindsight, McGaughey felt the rail post did hurt Orb's chances. Since 1961, there has been only one horse – the D. Wayne Lukas-trained Tabasco Cat in 1994 – to win from the rail.

"When I look at it now, it probably did hurt us because we couldn't get him out," McGaughey said. "I think he probably would have had a little more clear shot than he had today."