One snake to jump for Orb

mbeychok · May 13, 2013, 08:17:48 AM

In my humble opinion, there is only one real snake to jump over for ORB on Saturday and that is Itsmyluckyday. He is fast. He looked great prior to Derby. He worked very well yesterday. And he has a positive rider change.

I\'m not saying he is going to win but I would like the opinion of those on the board if he is cycling back to the fast races early this year. If he is, he CAN win - not saying he will.

I think all decisions on betting Preakness revolve around Lucky as I consider him the only real threat to ORB. If he doesn\'t run his race - ORB airs this field easily - and he will be even money to do it so it\'s not a good betting race.

However, if IMLD runs his race we could see a real horse race. All the others are players for minor awards here - ORB is the real deal.

Michael

covelj70 · May 13, 2013, 08:19:06 AM

hah, Michael, I just posted pretty similar thoughts!

I am afraid I just jinxed you!!!!!

sorry about that!

mbeychok · May 13, 2013, 08:34:42 AM

Ok, so make that 2 snakes to jump now for ORB. IMLD and the Covel/Chok agreement jinx!

magicnight · May 13, 2013, 08:36:01 AM

He jumped that second snake at CD, yes?

covelj70 · May 13, 2013, 08:51:06 AM

hah, that is true, maybe this horse is really something special

phil23 · May 13, 2013, 08:57:20 AM

Is it really a positive rider change? Tujillo vs JV rider profiles: Overall-2.0/2.3 Dirt-2.3/2.7 routes 1.8/2.2 JV is miles worse when it comes to saving ground, in all categories. I kinda wish Plesa had stuck with Elvis.

big18741 · May 13, 2013, 09:03:20 AM

Mike Smith on a closer in a race with some pace is a positive replacing Court.

MonmouthGuy · May 13, 2013, 11:36:17 AM

My concern about IMLD is that over the last decade it is rare to find a horse that X\'d in the KD that came back two weeks later and ran well at Pimlico. Jackson Bend comes to mind as he paired his top at Pimlico, and he X\'d after chasing a hot pace at CD. Also Sun King ran a big number early in the year at GP \"0\", ran up the track in the Derby and then started cycling back to his top at Pimlico, where he ran a 2. I think IMLD is over the top, and this race will be the last we see for IMLD at two turns.

With NI out, I don\'t see any of the KD returnees as viable options. Out of all of them, I think Oxbow is the most likely to run well as he was the only horse in the lead pack besides NI to run on after the speed collapsed last weekend. Even at that, the best I could see him doing is moving forward from his last to a 3. Race looks like a pass.

justwin · May 13, 2013, 11:51:12 AM

Looked back to 2006. 4 horses x\'d the derby and ran in the Preakness. I excluded the horses with only 1 good number before the derby. the 4 were Jackson Bend, Flying Private, Friesan Fire, Gayego. thwe first 2 ran well the last 2 did not.

alang · May 13, 2013, 12:24:40 PM

Anyone else think this is a trap race for Orb? I think Small field of nine, two week turnaround, etc. If he is not close to the pace (provided they don\'t go very fast) I think he could be in trouble.

vp612 · May 13, 2013, 12:38:51 PM

I don\'t care how they run, I think he is in trouble.To think that with 5 weeks rest he paired his top and now on 2 weeks rest another pair or a forward move,I just don\'t see it.AND the amount of development, and lets not forget 6/5,who needs him.

Rick B. · May 13, 2013, 03:51:24 PM

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike Smith on a closer in a race with some pace is
> a positive replacing Court.

Not if a tiring horse make a sudden double lane change
and damn near comes to a stop in front of him.

Court became the fall guy for what was simply an
an unfortunate (but common) way to lose a race.

jimbo66 · May 13, 2013, 03:55:37 PM

Vito,

I start handicapping every race by looking at reasons to toss the favorite, so I can certainly appreciate that you have been the lead \"anti-Orb\" guy on the board, since the Derby ended.

I can certainly agree that new top, paired top, now two weeks rest would seem to be a general recipe for some type of backward move.

All that said, what do you make of the fact that so many Derby winners have run so well over the past 20 years, when they have run back on the 2 weeks rest. I have lost a ton of money betting against Derby winners in the Preakness, including betting against many who didn\'t NEARLY as superior as Orb does, and they still came back to win. (Charismatic, Silver Charm, War Emblem come to mind immediately, the 1st and 3rd because I didn\'t think they were that good, the 2nd because the competition seemed so tough)

The choices in this Preakness just don\'t seem too appealing to me. Do I bet Governor Charlie off the sore foot. Do I bet Itsmyluckyday off a complete dud in the Derby, believing he suddenly couldn\'t handle an off track, despite breeding that suggests otherwise and a nice wet track win. (I believe this horse is now over the top for sure). Do I bet Goldencents off his no-show in the Derby? Another horse bred beautifully for the slop that didn\'t run at all. Do I bet the Lukas runners who have to improve dramatically to win? Oxbow ran courageously, but I would give 2-1 he goes backwards. The other one had the bad trip that everybody saw, and will be an underlay, but I still like him in the Super, but don\'t think he can beat Orb.

I guess my feeling is that I expect Orb to win, can\'t bet him to do so at underlaid odds, but would love to get 6-1 or better on Dreaming of Julia to beat him in the Belmont after Orb squashes the Preakness field.

Jim

vp612 · May 13, 2013, 04:18:54 PM

I completely understand and believe me I am not afraid to bet 6/5 shots but this line is one I just don\'t like.Speaking of DOJ I didn;t like her in the Oaks and yes they cut her off and she lost all chance but thats just it who wants them at odds on.I will find somebody(I don\'t know departing\'s line)The gov at 15-1 or more not impossible and if I can\'t find anyone ,there are 8 other stakes and 4 other tracks for me to look at.

TreadHead · May 13, 2013, 04:27:56 PM

6/5? Ppl don\'t really think that right? 2/5 seems more likely. Jimbo and I are definitely on the same page here, way too much money burned on Derby winners I expected to bounce and did not. And this one seems one of the more less likely than others like Big Brown, Barbaro, etc.

Only hope at cashing any even reasonably sized tickets in this race is to hope there is some huge longshot before the Dixie and load up on all/SwiftWarrior/Orb pk3s.