My Preakness bets are not going to change

[toppled]

With Jerry kindly posting the post Derby sheets, we\'ve already seen most of the Preakness field #s, so I\'m not going to worry about last race #s on 2 horses whose pre-last race sheets I\'ve already seen & I\'m already tossing on class.  

The only thing I\'ll do is if it looks like it\'s going to be wet, I\'ll back down on my increments. I\'m at a little disadvantage because I\'m going to be away all week through next Sunday with people who don\'t play the game, and the latest I can phone my bets in is Saturday morning (When I don\'t reply it\'s because I\'m not going to have a computer all week once I hit the airport).  I\'m going to use the same philosophy that I used in the Derby-2 weeks before the Derby I told my best friend \"If I mention any other horse but Orb winning the Derby, smack me\" Well, I feel the same way about the Preakness & I\'ll forgive Itsmyluckyday for not handling the track.  So I\'m going to approach it the same as the Derby, with the only difference that since I\'ve lost the value, I won\'t put the Mega-win-bet(for me, some of you would consider it pocket change) in I put in the Derby & just shoot for the exacta & tri.

Yesterday I approached the Peter Pan with one philosophy-The Illinois Derby was the biggest collection of garbage seen in a graded stake in a long time, and the Bluegrass wasn\'t far behind. The 1st thing I did was throw out the Ill. Derby & Bluegrass horses & I was able to hit the tri by keying FC over SV,GGTB & I.  I\'ll take that theory again & toss Departing-that should create some value.  I also believe that the west coast horses are nothing to write home about, so out go the 2 GCs. Value is climbing with the Beyer enthusiasts taking the same view of Goldencents that I\'m taking on IMLD.  Out go V & TF because I think V is over the top & TF is nothing.

So I\'m left with Orb on top of Itsmyluckyday, Will Take Charge, Oxbow, & Mylute.  I\'ll put my main exacta on Orb/Itsmyluckyday & save with the rest.  The only reverse will be an IMLD/Orb, just in case IMLD runs his best, which makes the race a lot closer-similar to the Derby seminar where I basically agreed with most of what Jerry thought, only that I had I Orb as a few times more likely to win than IMLD (I put 2 win bets on the Derby, with Orb 5x as much as IMLD).  I\'ll be playing Tri\'s with IMLD 2nd & 3rd with the others left & hope I\'m right.  In terms of betting units, here are my plays:

Exactas: 10 Or/IMLD; 4 IMLD/Or; 2 Or/WTC,Ox,M
Trifectas 1 Or/IMLD/WTC,OX,M; 1 Or/WTC,Ox,M/IMLD
Total 26 units.

[vp612]

Oxbow a complete throwout departing ,goldenscents,gov charlie is where the value is.Orb has to bounce.

[justwin]

Based on the wynn odds IMLD will be the best value. Those Wynn odds included NI so it will be lower but with his number power he has to be the value. He definitely will be in my plays with & without Orb. Haven\'t seen Departing\'s sheet but Gov Charlie has a nice improving line but can\'t see him jumping up enough to win. he will be in my plays along with WTC. Tossing Mylute based on my belief that the slop aided his last number.

[bellsbendboy]

Great post.  Loved the prattle that graded stakes participants are \"garbage\".
From here, you are due to cash big; soon. bbb

[Tavasco]

I see zero value in playing Orb @ 6/5 (probably 4/5 by race time) in either the first or second positions!

So looks like exactas for me ALL (except Orb) with All (except Orb).

I project Orb to: A) Regress 2+ TG pts., B) Incur 2+ pts. ground loss, C) Get stopped if a rail trip is attempted.

I can\'t remember when I last saw a Preakness winner pass more than half the field....Red Bullet?

Let\'s face it, Orbs Derby win was popular mostly because of A) deserving connections, B) No suspicion of PEDs, C) He was the obvious contender D) Price looked to be 6/1 or even higher. i.e., he was a fair value and arguably an overlay.

@6/5 phewey

[toppled]

If this race was just a normal race on the card, I wouldn\'t ever bet it.  Because I now have a soft spot for Orb & want to see him win the Triple Crown, I\'m throwing some action bets in while I root for a horse that I admittedly am getting a little too sentimental over. The Derby was a much better betting race than the Preakness. I bet pretty good money on the Derby, but will only bet a little more than 10% what I bet on the Derby on the Preakness.
Realistically, it\'s not a good bet to bet on or against Orb.  He already trounced most of this field & the new faces don\'t have his number power.

[Silver Charm]

The first \"Best Post of the Week\" and it wasnt even 8AM on Monday yet....well said!!

[Tavasco]

Agreed, and I share your TC sentiment. I\'m backing down to just Baffert over the herd less Orb. I\'ve worked so hard to develop a contrarian viewpoint sometimes I just can\'t ignore that voice.

[alang]

Could be some good value in the undercard races. I understand that at least 13 are in the box as of about 15 minutes ago for the Dixie.

[covelj70]

yeah, everyone in the pool for the Dixie since no Wise Dan and no Point of Entry to contend with

[Perfect Drift]

No, Orb doesn\'t have to bounce (whatever your definition of that might be... more than 4 points?). Your statement infers 100% occurrence, which in this game couldn\'t be more false.

He has better spacing than most horses entering Preakness...after his initial 2013 race, the next three were on five weeks rest.

His trainer is ultra-conservative, but he can\'t stop talking, especially after yesterday\'s workout.  Is this anecdotal, maybe, but to me it\'s evidence of supreme confidence, like Charlie Whittingham when he showed for a big race.

We\'ll know in three days, but money is made betting against these horses in the Belmont, when Orb will be 1-5 and the rest of the field stupendously overlaid.

[Perfect Drift]

Afleet Alex - 10th after 1/2 mile
Curlin - 7th after 1/2 mile

[Larchmont]

Many horses who win sit midpack, then make huge move on turn.  Other than Curlin (7th) and Afleet Alex (10th) who were already mentioned, Charismatic was 10th after 1/2, Red Bullet was 6th down backstretch, Lookinatlucky was 5th/6th down backstretch (of 12), Real Quiet was 8th down backstretch (of 11).

Orb has typical style of many Preakness winners - relax early, stay in contact down back stretch, big move turn, strong finish.  Just like his Florida Derby win - sat in 5th about 3 1/2 lengths off leaders.

[Tavasco]

Reference 2007 Preakness Value Scenario

Facts: Curlin\'s win, by a head, over Street Sense (who came from 8th) in one memorable and furious finish.

To a pace oriented player it would seem the top two were helped by the blistering pace that day :45.75, 1.09.80. (similar to this years derby) Hard Spun (the pace presser) hung on for 3rd.

Others would say the two fastest Derby horses were the two fastest Preakness horses at any pace. Curlin improves 2.5 pts from a series of O\'s (3 in the 7 weeks culminating with the CD). Street Sense pairs up his -2 from the derby. Hard Spun is the 2+ point regressor.

C.P. West (The new shooter, Mid pack plodder) jumped up 5 pts to be 4th creating a $340/1 spr behind a 10/1 tri touted by everyone S. Wonder included!

The relevant consideration of this saga is .... finally Titletown Five brings some opportunity to the race he could be a 250/1 4th in the super or  100/1 3rd in tri under TC candidate Orb + see TG race of the week. TT-5 may even get win odds GT 40/1 igniting more confusion. hah

What a nice recovery? pattern, and no Rosie groupies to beat the price down 20pts on race day. So 4th does not seem impossible albeit strange to cheer for three others to pass him in the stretch.

[Tavasco]

2005 Afleet Alex Preaknes

After getting out finished in Derby by Giacomo AA gets back to his -2 top in Preakness note AA blows by everyone at about 1M and disappears to win easily.

What I find interesting is again an unaccomplished new shooter jumps up to create a $75/1 ex under the fav & $435/1 tri w/1st @ 3rd choices while the shooter - Scrappy T @ only 13/1.

So using the 2005 Preakness model for value I expect Orb to move earlier Sat and make the lead near the top of the stretch (as others have previously predicted) and draw off with another top.

One or both new shooters under in exactas/tris. Surely the party people will beat down the price on BBB by post time. regardless I believe he\'s running GC because he thinks he has a contender and that makes GoldenCents a throwout for me.

In general this exercise (looking back at 2005 and a like style Preakness winner) convinces me that A) the value is with the new shooters to outrun the already peaked also rans from KD and produce OK ex & tri prices. B) Orb will win