Peter Panic -- Opportunity Knocks

[richiebee]

Big fields in Saturday\'s 300K guaranteed P4. Sun shining brightly here in
Manhattan, uncertain about tomorrow, need some help from board meTeoroloGist Frank
D.

Since there is no ROTW this week, and no one has commented on the Shermazin Board,
I\'ll break down the first leg in a way Tgenerate in training Vito can appreciate:
The 15, 15, 15 favorite is likely to stop as he has in his last 3; the
18², 12¹ on the rail gets a huge positive rider switch off
the  claim.

In Race 8, leg 2, the 6/5 fave is a RudyRod who jumped up big off the claim in his
last; up in class off that win, Quiet Power has liked Aq better than Belmont
throughout his career. Will look to beat him with Trombetta\'s Irish Moon (6/1).
These two seem to have a decided TG edge over their rivals.

Interesting feature, any PRE RACE opinions appreciated: Battier, a 13K Timonium
2YO who has won 4 of 6 starts and now goes first time TAP (33% strike rate DRF,
52% top or pair TG trainer stat); Fear the Kitten, claimed from Ramsey/Catalano
first out, ends up with Miracle Maker; Declan\'s Warrior, only graded stakes winner
in the field, Zito not sure if he wants to go this far, if not this is a great
prep for 7 furlong Woody Stephens on Belmont Day; Incognito on a two race win
streak with competitive numbers running without LASIX; and Infinite Magic, for
Team Valor, first Lasix and first main track. Thankfully I can hit the \"ALL\"
button here because...

In the final leg, its Ramsey/Rosario/Miracle Maker\'s Scandalo, who had two bad
starts as the favorite over the Gulfstream lawn and now meets a very slow field.
The \"banker\" in the P4 at a short price.

[vp612]

You left out the winner in the 9th,Freedom Child.

[richiebee]

... thats the one who finished behind Orb and in front of
Revolutionary in a maiden race? When I hit \"All\", he\'s in!

[vp612]

He has a nice line(throw the last out) coming in.good luck.

[TGJB]

It\'s an interesting feature and an interesting pick four, all right. Small chance I\'ll get over being lazy and do a ROTW, though I really want to leave the Derby figures there.

Worth pointing out re Freedom child that unlike Ragozin we don\'t adjust the figures for OP\'s, that last effort would probably come out somewhere around the one that preceded it.

[vp612]

I am not saying you should adjust your figures but if you look at the start of the race(I have looked at it several times) he lost all chance and to me the number he ran is irrelevant,therefore I am willing to play through that number like it doesn\'t exist.

[TGJB]

I would disregard that last one under any circumstances, but in fact the figure would come up okay adjusted for what he lost at the start. He\'s also effectively first lasix, and clearly a strong contender tomorrow.

[vp612]

Ley\'s not forget the 12-1 and the strong trainer,we agree.

[Fairmount1]

Richiebee,

After considerable thought/study/replay watching on the Peter Pan, my pre-race thoughts:

I think Incognito could be the real deal in the Belmont if he runs a decent race tomorrow but I don\'t think he can win at the 1 1/8 distance against this field without lasix.  Lasix and a race good enough to get him in the Belmont and I\'d use him for sure underneath Orb if he Orb is still alive in the triple crown.  

As for the win in the Peter Pan, My Name is Michael and Declan\'s Warrior are the most likely winners on my tickets.  The question marks for the win are Battier and Infinite Magic.  I\'m not sure how to view the move from 33% trainer to Pletcher and Infinite Magic obviously is a question on dirt but a had a nice turn of foot at Keeneland turf.  I am strongly against Abraham and Saint Vigeur.  I can\'t see Freedom CHild winning but hanging around for a piece.      

So two deep on a small, cheap ticket and four deep on spread tickets with 2A\'s and 2B\'s using the Crist structure.  

I think the first leg is pretty wide open and I\'d use several including the first time Jimmy Jerkens horse on the outside of his brother Steven.  

Good Luck.

[FrankD.]

Nobody likes a red board weather man!!!!

I was busy all day and did not read any posts yesterday but yesterdays yielding course and overnight rain with lot\'s more in the forecast for today should take 2,4,5,& 10 off the turf today.

Making Golden Buffalo & Horatio the choices in the 7th, Quiet Power and Amberjack live in the 8th, Abraham, Saint Vigeur, Declan\'s Warrior & Incognito in the Peter Panda, with Dapper Draper,Moonshine Ridge & Freight in the finale.

Good luck on an ugly day,

Frank D.

[catcapper]

Hello Richie, I had planned on keeping quiet for awhile, but since you asked....and I owe you one for previously speaking after the fact. So I am offering my two cents on today's 8th race at BEL.  I am primarily a turf bettor and knowing the rains were coming I havent looked at  card  very much. I've only looked at one race so far, the 8th, a very ugly race. As slop is imminent, I haven't sprung for the TG sheets yet, I study the DRF first, then look to TG for deeper insight and further confirmation or otherwise. The story of the 8th as I am reading it so far ...
 I realize everyone will be jumping on the 2, and I agree with trying to beat it with the 4. But allow me to put forth a few arguments in favor of the 9 to win. This is a young horse and looking at his  development so far, his workout tab, and his connections, this is a horse poised to run his best race to date. Will it be enough to win this race?  He is poised for that 3yo leap forward. He hasn't raced since the winter so he has had the last 5 months to grow up and mature. His last work was relatively sharp. He is going to come back a biggger, stronger horse than we last saw him. I think he is well spotted, and he has serious connections. What I know of the owner is that he is a excellent horseman himself. He is not a businessman claiming horses for a hobby. Mike Hushion makes a good living stealing candy from babies in races like these.  Very serious connections. These guys don't waste a race. Plus he is getting 4lbs less than in each of previous two starts, and 6lbs less than his older rivals here. And Rosario sure doesn't hurt. This horse  is poised for a new top even in the slop. Will it be enough?

 If the 2 and 4 have the TG edge,  I think Maragh is a big upgrade for the 4. I have liked Maragh a great deal for several years. For me, he adds value to a horse. The 4 ran poorly twice as a 2yo, then came back 10 months later and broke his maiden at LRL on first asking as a 3yo. Then he was entered at 1 1/8 at AQU and ran poorly. I will throw this race out. Next out he goes up in class, gets Maragh and goes on the grass. Nothing stellar, but a better effort. Now he is cutting back in distance and going back to Plan A, running on the dirt. I think he is running for redemption. And Maragh is sticking with him. I like this guy far far better than the 2. I just can't bring myself to bet a horse like the 2 at 6/5 to win no matter what. Plus the 2 is carrying 4 and 9lbs respetively more in this race than in his previous two starts. The 2 might beat me, but that is a loss I can live with....  

It seems slop is imminent. I don't see many if any of these guys scratching. And I don't think the connections on the 9 are too worried about the slop.

So, my pre race thoughts on the 8th. Forget the 2, not worth it. 4,9 to finish first and second, (or second and first) . Not seeing the TG figs, I can't quite choose between the two yet, but if you hold my feet to the fire, I 'm going with the 9 on the outside, in the slop, looking for a big new top under Jo-el Rosario.

As a exotic bettor, I would be using the 3, 5, and 7 also. I like 3yos in this situation. Good jocks on 5 and 7, and a weight break for the 5. But it's the 9 to win for me. I think he is the only horse unequivocably looking forward and many positives angles to him.  And It's killing me this track is sloppy today. Arrrggghhhh!

Here's to a profitable day at the races for you, Richie!  Good Luck!!!

[Silver Charm]

Nice pick guys. I guess the Maiden race at GP (day after Tampa Derby) is looking like a Key Race with this one and next 2 out winner Bellarmine!!

[aceriley63]

Yes nice pick gentlemen.  And the Pick 4 is paying pretty decent to Richiebee\'s \"banker\" single in the last.  I hope he\'s right about that one...

[gagoots007]

\"You left out the winner in the 9th,Freedom Child.\"

Nice call Vito.

[vp612]

Thank you.