The Story of O

[richiebee]

Getting close enough to offer some pre post draw don\'t know what the weather
will be thoughts on the Derby. Since my main focus will be picking a small
herd of horses to use in the horizontals, I do not pressure myself, pre race,
to definitively make a single pick and stand by him. Having thus hedged, here
goes:

Orb: Logical off the TG data, number and pattern wise. Came to hand rather
alarmingly at GP this winter, obviously flourishing at Palm Meadows and loving
the GP surface. Looked awesome going into the Fla Derby, and if he maintains
his edge at CD he is an obvious contender at odds of 3/1 or so. Strongest point
for me is the man who will be saddling him. Shug has been a private trainer
for an owner who has not historically pushed colts into the Derby, but a Derby
win would mean quite a bit to this Lexington, KY product, who is right up
there with Mott and Allen Jerkens (two other Derby infrequent flyers) as the
best horsemen I have seen in nearly 40 years of racing.

Overanalyze: I think 2YO experience is a key in Derby handicapping. Overanalyze
not only has that experience, but also put up some fast TG#s as a juvenile.
TAP very satisfied with his quick Saturday breeze. TG data says the dam of
Overanalyze has not been overly productive, and the only full sibling was
rather pokey TG wise. St Louis Tgenerate Fairmount thinks this one could be
off at odds of 20/1, but hard to believe that a TAP trained Ark Derby winner
will be allowed off at that odds.

Itsmyluckyday: Extensive 2YO foundation, two very fast TG#s at Hallandale as a
3YO. The ratio of likely high odds 16/1, 18/1, 20/1 (?) to low TG#s makes this
one a must play TG wise given a good week of preparation at CD.

Revolutionary: Has the 2YO foundation and some fast TG #s as a 2YO, though not
as fast as Overanalyze. SW AP Indy dam a plus. Calvin hurts the price a bit,
and this one has been favored in all lifetime starts. Should be between 10 -15/1 on Derby day.

Frac Daddy: A must use for me only because I was alive with him in a large P4
on Ark Derby day (a P4 I was only alive in because the Arapahoe Park based
Colorado bred shipper who won the Northern Spur looked very good off TG data).
Has the 2YO foundation, reportedly doing very well at CD, but honestly using
him strictly for mental health reasons.

[Fairmount1]

My thoughts on the line have changed some the last few days.  Here is my best guess right now with a balanced line.  I do this only because I remember my first few Derby experiences being overwhelmed at the smorgasboard of odds that had my heading spinning on tilt on the Friday before the Derby and it would interfere with my handicapping for two days.  This way I already have a decent idea walking in on Oaks day even though I\'ll be off on several horses.  So not quite 20-1 based on last night\'s Trial results (the Pletcher CD issue was gaining steam in mainstream media, see Mike Beer\'s comments on At the Races) and his tremendous work yesterday.


Orb   3.30
Verrazano   3.50
Goldensense   7.00
Normandy Invasion   7.70
Revolutionary   10.10
Itsmyluckyday   12.50
Overanalyze   16.80
Vyjack   18.20
Mylute   19.40
Govenor Charlie   20.70
Will Take Charge   21.70
Oxbow   22.20
Palice Malice   23.30
Black Oynx   26.70
Java\'s War   28.40
Lines of Battle   37.40
Frac Daddy   40.60
Falling Sky   46.60
last entrant??   54.50
Charming Kitten   61.50

[vp612]

I will take 20-1 on My lute and Gov Charlie,right now.

[phil23]

Gov Charlie is all but declared I believe, BB not happy. MyLute is intriguing of course and probably agree that with Rosie (and the 60 min special on her tonight) very likely lower. Maybe CRAZY lower (like approaching singles).

Great stuff Fairmount in making a line. Would only just add that you\'re at 135%. CD goes off at around 120% so quite a few will go off at better odds than what you\'re speculation to make up that diference. But regardless, always great idea to do the work to make one.

[vp612]

I have to disagree with you on My lute. Orb,VZ,Gold,NI,ITSMYLDAY,REC,OVERANY,all figure to be lower than him and if they are he could never be that low.I have him at 25-1.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks phil23.  I\'m looking to improve upon the exactness.  Can you help me out with your thoughts on the correct formula since you obviously figured that out pretty quick.

I was taught to make it 100+16+20=136 for a 20 horse field.

16 percent takeout at CD on win bets.

1 point for each entrant (20 entrants).

And I\'ve struggled with if it works out exactly. A true morning line must \"balance\". If there wasn\'t any takeout from the 'win\' pool, the base for the point system would be 100. But the line maker must factor in takeout to his formula to arrive at a mathematically correct morning line.

I might have my formula in excel incorrect but I think this is a matter of the total number to use, 136 vs. 116 let\'s say?  Thoughts.

_________________________________________________

http://www.arlingtonpark.com/node/10222

The takeout in the win pool in Illinois is 17 percent. Therefore, by adding 17 to a base of 100, we arrive at 117 points. Then, by designating an additional point per horse, the morning line will generally balance between 125 and 129 points for fields consisting of eight to 12 horses.

Once each race is assigned a point value, the oddsmaker must now balance the field of horses to add up to the designated total (give or take a point or two). In an eight-horse field in Illinois the point value is 117 + 8 = 125.

[phil23]

Fair point Vp. Other than what I would classify as the big 5 (O/V/NI/REV/GC) think we could see almost anything in the betting. Which of course is good if they let some good ones get away at big prices. For instance I could see Lucky as high as say 17\'s or as low as 11\'s. Just have to wait. God love big pools.

[phil23]

No probs. Real easy. Let\'s say your ML is like this, which just happens to be my guess (yes I realize V seems high but I really am starting to think Orb is going to get pounded...regardless for the example the exact number is not relevant):

Orb           4.0
Verrazano   7.0
Norm Invasion   8.5
Revolutionary   9.0
Goldencents   10
MyLute           13
Overanalyze   14
It\'smyluckyday   15
Java\'s War   15
Vyjack           18
Palice Malice   20
WTC        25
Lines of Battle   30
Oxbow           35
Frac Daddy   35
Black Onyx   40
Charming Kitten   40
Golden Soul   40
Falling Sky   60

Take each horse\'s odds and express it as a percentage ie Orb\'s 4:1 = 1/5 chance = 20%. Add them all up. It needs to come to apprx 120% (which is what you get given Churchill Downs takeout rate on WPS), rather than 135%.

Quick end note: Should also make a line to 100%, which would be their \"true\" odds. Then compare to actual. If you believe your line represents the true chances of each horse and then you see any that are going off higher, bet them. Simple game right.  Lol.

[touchgold]

Mylute @20-1 at las vegas hilton....was 35/1 last week. Departing winning illinois derby hurt his odds

[TGJB]

Rosie will hurt his straight odds a lot (at least 5 points), but only in the win pool, those people don\'t play exotics.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks again Phil23.  After some more investigation, calculating the third race at Belmont with one of the flashes of the win pool amounts, odds, and total, I was able to figure out how to do it exactly to the best of my understanding with the win takeout amount at 16% at Belmont as stated on DRF\'s track information page.

Joe Kristufek\'s method on the Arlington website is wrong I believe.  

The formula for determining the exact amount of the total is as follows:

1 divided by (1 minus .xx) with xx being the takeout on the win pool.  

For example, 1/(1 minus .16) equals 1/.84 or 1.1904 or 119 when the win takeout is 16% at Churchill Downs (and also Belmont coincidentally).  

Here is where I found the formula before testing it on actual amounts in the Belmont race:  

http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/tools/wt_ml.php

[touchgold]

went casino shopping and found mylute @ 35-1

[modpirate]

I can\'t see mylute better than 20-1. Personally I like mylute and will have him on 1 of my tickets. ...but... if he went off any less than 15-1 I wouldnt even bother.

[touchgold]

I think he goes off 15 to 25/1..happy to get 35/1 today

[Tavasco]

Good move, after 60 minutes publicity, race day price could drop 10 points due to rosie association. Good Luck!