Frac Daddy

[Fairmount1]

Anyone\'s thoughts on him?  I know the bo notation isn\'t the greatest heading into the Derby but....

Am I crazy to think this horse is sitting on a move forward at a big price?  He loves the Churchill surface presumably.  

Or were his Gulf races so bad it\'s hard to see him moving forward a whole lot more?  I know he isn\'t as fast as his stablemate\'s Sam Davis but I still think he has a move forward to get a piece.  

I really think I see this as one of the horses I will use prominently in 3rd and 4th spots.

[JoseOcon]

I have played him three times.  When he lost to uncaptured. And his last two races.

In the Arkansas derby I played wps with good payback.

Horses I like at this moment are ORb and NI.  Do not like to play favorites and Frac Daddy is going to be seriously considered in my bets, still need to take a look on the numbers and race day conditions with post positions.

[modpirate]

Ran OK in the Kentucky Jockey club, but has been less impressive since then. Did get second in the Ark Derby behind overanalyzed, but I'm still not sold on overanalyzed as the contender that some feel him to be.

[Silver Charm]

This horse has been a bit of bad boy on race days most of the winter/spring. Mind of his own when saddling and loading. Talented and always working well and was placed in an ambitious agenda becasue the trainer felt like he was up to it.

Ripped off half his quarter in his first outing at GP and acted up saddling and before loading. Some small equipment changes were made and a small throat surgical procedure was performed. After the Florida Derby Day debacle even the Owners were unsure but the Trainer insisted there was a breathing issue somehwere as he cooled the horse out. It was his insistence that convinced them to give the Arkansas Derby a shot.

The Onwers are from Montana. Nice as can be. Good horse people. Told me half of Billings bet on him Florida Derby Day so they had some \"explainin to do\" when they got back. When he ran 2nd in Arkansas to get in the Derby a text reply indicated they thought they had won the Kentucky Derby. Hell YES THEY ARE GOING!!!

These are the types of Onwers who get in and dream of running a horse in the Kentucky Derby. The primary guy was an intial investor in the Bakken Shale Region. Hence the name \"Frac\". Do these types think they will wake up Sunday and say we won....probably not. Do they know they will wake up Saturday morning and say \"we can dream\". For sure. Frac Daddy is a huge longshot. Most of Billings doesnt care. He is theirs and they will be watching......

[mjellish]

After watching his races I don\'t think he likes to take dirt, and he hates to be crowded.  If he stays out in the clear he seems to run well.  But if another horse comes over on him or he\'s stuck in between horses and behind otehrs it seems like he gets intimidated.  

I think he has some talent, and he shows it in the morning, but I don\'t think a 20 horse field is going to be his cup of tea unless he gets a dream trip.

[Fairmount1]

I have believed ever since posting this that post position will matter for him and he needs to be outside of horses.  I normally don\'t really care a whole lot about Derby Post Positions like many people unless it\'s the one hole (which is death now apparently).  But in this instance, I\'ve read exactly what you said mjellish in an article about him....., that he HAS to be outside of horses to make his best run.  This results in a ?w,?w trip with big numbers in the question marks most likely.  But visually his TG numbers at Churchill as a 2yo looked way better than his Ark Derby to me where he paired those numbers....I believe he has a right to improve upon that Ark Derby number which puts him in contention for a minor piece.  But it will be a tall order with the wide trip but I am hoping he gets an outside post so he has a chance to run his best--in which case I will use him.

[mjellish]

I took a long look at him and a few others like him.  One thing that concerns me in this field there really isn\'t a lot of early speed.  And a few of the natural front runners probably don\'t want the lead in this race, or at least they aren\'t training like they do.  That may mean that the field won\'t string out.  Rather, the pressers and mid-pack stalkers will probably bunch up closer together.  And IF that happens (and I think it somewhat likely) it will mean more traffic/kickback issues and more ground loss.

[covelj70]

MJ,

Couldn\'t agree more. Made same exact comment in another string.

One thing I think consensus has wrong though is that Orb won\'t be compromised by slow pace. He has tactical speed and Rosario is riding like a total freak. He\'s not gonna let himself be too far back against a slow pace.

[Fairmount1]

Goldensense being trained to relax but i disagree a little bit here.....i think he guarantees pressure on falling sky earlier than most realize.  His last race suggests he can continue on even if takes that approach (siiting second til a bold move entering the second turn or just before)...

I see verrazano just off goldensense in third with oxbow right there as well.  My problem with mylute is he makes a winning move from the backfield as john dooley is apt to say but never gets it done.  

Orb will make his own pace i think.  If he is good enough he will be around.  

Frac daddy likes to be fairly close so if he can sit behind oxbow into a moderate pace as i envision in about 5th or so i think he can carve out a trip to give an improved effort off his previous tops.

[Tavasco]

Rarely do I see a Baffert horse taken back. I see Govenor Charlie as a key pace factor. Remember last year when lightly raced Bodemeister was thought to be compromised by the presence of Trinniberg and he ran that one off his feet.

I expect the same strategy. How else can he win. Those who expect  a slow pace will be surprised. Catch me if you can. SoCal racing.

Stevens will try a winning colors, He\'ll gun for the lead and try to throttle back. When he does or when Jim\'s horse does the same. Govenor Charllie will go right by if he hasn\'t already.

I think Baffert went to Sunland for the points and purse of course but also to mask how fast this horse is. The two CA speedballs guarantee a faster pace than the east coasters want. Frac Daddy benefits.

Rosario jeez loueez he must use ? magic!

[alm]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rarely do I see a Baffert horse taken back. I see
> Govenor Charlie as a key pace factor. Remember
> last year when lightly raced Bodemeister was
> thought to be compromised by the presence of
> Trinniberg and he ran that one off his feet.
>
> I expect the same strategy. How else can he win.
> Those who expect  a slow pace will be surprised.
> Catch me if you can. SoCal racing.
>
> Stevens will try a winning colors, He\'ll gun for
> the lead and try to throttle back. When he does or
> when Jim\'s horse does the same. Govenor Charllie
> will go right by if he hasn\'t already.
>
> I think Baffert went to Sunland for the points and
> purse of course but also to mask how fast this
> horse is. The two CA speedballs guarantee a faster
> pace than the east coasters want. Frac Daddy
> benefits.
>
> Rosario jeez loueez he must use ? magic!


You had me up until Frac Daddy benefits from your scenario.  Why?  There are a half dozen faster horses in this race who can beat Frac Daddy under any scenario and if they don\'t beat him, the early speed will.  They are MUCH faster than he is.  The big question in this Derby is whether or not O\'Neill can keep Goldencents from bouncing.  I don\'t think that he can pair up his SA Derby, but if he does, he wins.

[Tavasco]

I say benefits, I didn\'t mean wins. A fast pace  eliminates all the wanna be close up ones except the survivor.

[Fairmount1]

Two days of energetic movement this week according to Welsch and then a decidedly better work than Java this morning.  He sure seems like he is thriving (peaking as Welsch said earlier this week) at the right time.  Is anyone starting to believe he can move forward off that pair up of his 2yo top(s) that happened at Churchill?  He is still in the mix for me in the third and fourth spots.

[ajkreider]

How common is a new top in a third race in 5 weeks?

[covelj70]

Fairmount,

The horse I like more and more out of that race is the one that beat Frac Daddy while carrying 4 more pounds and earning alot bigger TG figure and galloping out like a monster.

I liked his breeze this morning and I love his numbers and pattern going into the Derby.

I have obviously been on Orb for months and I see absolutely no reason to deviate from that view at this point and I like Overanalyze along with him alot.

Frac Daddy definitely seems to be thriving out there but let\'s not go nuts over him and forget about the horse than ran 3 TG points faster while beating him in his last race.

Best week of the year