Frac Daddy

[TGJB]

Putting aside your apparent need to discuss homemade figures in a venue frequented by people who use professional ones, if you look at the TG sheets for last years Derby you will see a) the California horses were as a group the fastest going in, and b) did not run new tops in the Derby, which you would think they would have if we had their prior figures slow. We didn\'t like IHA, but it had nothing to do with thinking he was too slow. Check the seminar, in the archives here.

[alm]

What makes a figure \'professional?\'

[vp612]

Boy do we disagree on frac daddy.He is a throwout for me and I am not crazy about IMLDAY either.Orb is a dangerous horse in that he could go forward again so I am not dismissing him at all.

[TGJB]

The fact that people who make a living in this industry (and others) are willing to pay for them. The fact that they are made by people who do it for a living.

[Wrongly]

Completely agree Vinny.  Also surprised at the similarities between Three Rings sheet and IMLD.  Sure IMLD is faster but the sheets look similar and I\'m hoping for a similar fate.

[slewzapper]

Wrongly Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Completely agree Vinny.  Also surprised at the
> similarities between Three Rings sheet and IMLD.
> Sure IMLD is faster but the sheets look similar
> and I\'m hoping for a similar fate.


Similar fate? Hope you\'re just talking her Derby performance...the 1999 Mother Goose was a tragic end to a game filly.

Meanwhile, who now will take the 20th spot in the field? Tiz a Minister? A filly? Hornung\'s horse?

Irony choices (for fun):

Departing (Ill derby winner wins and makes for an interesting trophy presentation
Baffert\'s Oaks filly - \"It was the easier spot\"
Uncaptured - KJC winner, another canadian 2yo champ

[Wrongly]

Slewzapper

I was referring to Three Rings finish in the Derby, wouldn\'t wish her demise on any horse or their connections.

[alm]

With all due respect, and I do mean RESPECT, the people who make BRIS speed numbers are also professional people who make a living at this.  And the real art in all this is one\'s interpretation of the numbers, from wherever they evolve or are produced.  For my part and I say this in all humility, it is my interpretation of and adjustment to the BRIS figures that helps me arrive at betting decisions, not the numbers alone.  On their own, they are mostly (but not completely) meaningless.  You have to watch a lot of races to make adjustments that mean something.  That\'s what I do.  I\'m an amateur for sure, in the best sense of the word (Latin roots) --- I love handicapping as much as anyone on this site.

I have another question for you and ask this with respect: Have you always taken horse to horse and race to race comparisons into the numbers that you make?  Have you done this at the same rate over all these years?  Have you been doing more of this in recent years?

I ask this because I am confused about what you did with Dreaming of Julia\'s last race.

[TGJB]

Alm-- Okay, now I have some time.

The BRIS figures, like the Equibase figures, are automated, using pars and averages. They are not professional figures-- they are add-ons for a company that makes its money other ways (mostly pedigrees), and when dealing with handicappers is dealing with a much less sophisticated and smaller betting segment of the market (in general, and meaning bets less money, not a comment about you). It\'s not hard to create a program that can make grossly accurate speed figures, but that\'s all it does, aside from the issues of wind, ground and weight that differentiate speed from performance figures.

I\'m not sure what you are asking about DOJ. We are doing more computer checks circuit to circuit (the right time to use averages, large sample studies), but that had nothing to do with DOJ\'s figure.

If you are asking me have we always use the \"projection\" method (a terrible name Crist came up with that confuses everyone and makes them think we simply assign numbers we want to give out)-- yes. When you set up your data base to start you use pars because you have nothing else to work with, and develop a crude data base to work with that way, of figures for each horse. At that point you throw the pars away-- you don\'t use the average 10 claimer, you use the horses in THIS 10 claimer, who can be faster or slower than average. That\'s all the projection method is.

An example of why you don\'t use them can be found in Beyer\'s figures for SoCal, and probably BRIS as well, since evidently they have that circuit too fast as well. A 25 claimer (or any claimer) in SoCal is far softer than average-- the fields are smaller, made up mostly of Cal breds, and people out there have a lot of money so 25k is nothing. Claiming prices there are greatly inflated. This can happen in NY too, but a) there are a lot of feeder tracks, which doesn\'t happen in SoCal due to geography, and b) unfortunately there are a lot more drugs being used here, making those races tougher to win, and forcing people down in class.  Beyer said (correctly) at the 2004 DRF Expo that it is wrong to use pars-- but in talking to one of the guys who makes figures for them it became clear they do anyway.

If you use those pars it will not just affect the claiming races, but all the other figures for the day, including stakes, since all the figures are based on a variant that is based on the claimers.

Another problem with pars is it makes figures useless for historical comparisons. If you use 10 for par for a 10 claimer, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy-- pars make you pull figures to par, by definition. If horses are getting faster (or slower) over time you can\'t see it.

[gteasy]

This is the most arrogant, politically incorrect name for a racehorse that I can remember...little surprised that New Yorkers aren\'t more sensitive to this issue due to recent fracking threats to their water table...or is all of this just old news?...sure, I\'m more interested in who might win the Derby...I\'m just saying.

[RICH]

are you serious? Threat to the water table?. What Cuomo is doing is a crime aginst NY and the communities that need it most.

[Holybull1]

Jerry, I\'m a small time lurker on this board mostly.  But this is something that has come up several times.  Is it POSSIBLE that the reason horses (or TG figs) have gotten faster is due to the projection method?  I\'ve seen you say several times that it is unlikely to have most of the field run bad, especially in a G1.  But it is still possible.  The cumulative effect of not letting thst ever happen would mean inflated figures, no?

[TGJB]

There are several answers to this. One is that regardless, what we know for sure is that the alternative (pars) makes figures unusable for comparing generations, by definition, so even if that\'s possible all you can do is try.

Another is that figures for one race are made in the larger context of a day-- lots of data points. If you break a race out there has to be good reason-- meaning not just that it looks wrong tied to the day, but because its clear what it should be. That\'s hard to explain to someone who hasn\'t made figures using a serious data base.

But yes, figure makers have tendencies. And in some cases blind spots. You have to keep from going off the rails