Oaks Workers

[mjellish]

For what it\'s worth, Silsita outworked Unlimited Budget this morning.  Dreaming of Julia had a strong, double gallop out after her work and looks to be coming up to the race very well.

[ruthlessman]

mjellish,
Can you post the combo/cost for the supers like you did a few years back?
I found it very helpful in putting together tickets for derby.

[mjellish]

Would be happy to, but I don\'t know what you are referring to.  What was it?

[streetbull]

ruthlessman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> mjellish,
> Can you post the combo/cost for the supers like
> you did a few years back?
> I found it very helpful in putting together
> tickets for derby.

Here is the link to the old post: If it is what you are referring to:


https://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,66214,66214#msg-66214

[streetbull]

Re: Derby Post Mortem (728 Views)
Posted by: mjellish (IP Logged)
Date: May 09, 2011 09:43AM

Here it is Plastic. I\'m still not over this one. Can\'t help but to feel I let a big one get by me somehow. Thought it was an excellent race to bet and felt pretty good about my chances going in.

DI was very vulnerable having to get a pace to run at, pass 15-18 horses (meaning traffic or wide trip), was a little slow coming in and he did hurt his left hind training last week. UM was also very vulnerable and I figured he would take a lot of dead money. His scratch hurt, but then Calvin\'s horse was way overbet anyway to make up for it. Thought AAA was most likely winner until he drew the rail. Figured if he broke fast, got out and over and relaxed he was still most likely winner. If not he was probably dead. So I had to split my bankroll and pick another Key horse because I didn\'t want to bet everything on AAA knowing he had the rail and I knew better, but I also didn\'t want to toss him and then watch him win. Really sucked.

But anyway, I decided on SHAK as my other key horse because I loved his sheet, he was training like a monster, and I loved how he re-broke as soon as he saw DI coming in the FL Derby. He drew a neutral post and I hought he was very likely to be the last of the speed horses to hang around. I even figured he could possibly win if the pace was slow enough (which it was, he just wasn\'t good enough at 1 1/4).

Of the rest the only one\'s I thought could win were AK - worked like an absolute monster last week, had dirt in his pedigree, bred to love the added distance, outstanding connections, right style, and he\'s obviously a very nice horse that gives his all every race. MI had an outside shot if he paired or moved forward and got the right trip (I had his SA Derby faster). And POF drew really well and was likely to get a good trip, so if he paired or moved forward he could have got there too, although I thought he was really overbet as well.

I thought NEH, MMM, STAY and SOL were better than the rest and more likely to hit the board than anyone else. Was a little worried that SOL could spoil my whole bet and win outright, but decided to take my chances coming off an 0-2-X. NEH looks like a horse that loves to take second and never wins, so I figured I would use him but if he won I would let him beat me. MMM was training well, had lots of rest, a good number to run back to, but not really bred to run a new top at 1 1/4. STAY had a good number to run back to as well and was bred to love 1 1/4, so he scared me a bit but I decided to let him beat me as well.


So the structure was like this.

5x K/K/A
4x K/A/K
4x A/K/K

3x K/A/A
3x A/K/A
2x A/A/K

2x K/K/B
2x K/B/K
1x K/A/B
1x K/B/A

1x A/K/B
1x A/B/K

I effectively used ALL in the supers for the 4 spot, but I only had $1 Supers to DK, TWIN, WMG, CTTT, TTA, DM, SA, BS, MOH.

I also played some savers with TTA and MOH coming in 3rd since I didn\'t know much about MOH and I\'m just afraid of Calvin in the Derby.

The total bet cost $24k, of which half of that was mine, and was a complete miss.

[alm]

If the concept of \'bounce\' has any meaning at all Dreaming of Julia is dead certain to bounce in the Oaks.  And if TAP\'s comment on the Silsita/Unlimited Budget work today is at all accurate, Budget may actually have outworked the other.  In any case, both of them had faster works than Julia, relative to all other horses who worked at their respective distances.

The Oaks finish may very well be a reprise of the Fair Ground Oaks.

[mjellish]

It\'s not about the time of the work.  It\'s also about how they do it.  

Unlimited Budget was under a lot more pressure to finish her work than Silsita and shut down quickl afterwards.  Silsita blew by her shortly past the wire.  But DOJ was the best worker of all three.

DOJ galloped out extremely strong, throwing in another 2F in 25 change after the work.  That\'s a whole different kettle of fish than working 4F in 48 change.  This is very similar to what Rachel did a few year ago (not comparing the two fillies, just the works).  It was the best work of those 3.

I agree about the bounce thought though.  But whether you think she ran -8 or -4, she could still bounce and win.

[alm]

I know it\'s not about the time of the workouts, but read TAP\'s description of the choice they made about putting the two fillies in different paths.  And his speculation about the inside being deeper, where Budget trained.  It could be that she got more out of this work than meets the eye.

But the interesting thing about nearly every filly going to the Oaks is the fact that most hit big new numbers in their final prep and are bounce candidates to one degree or another, including Budget.  One who had a small, but important new top was Midnight Lucky...she can be considered unlikely to regress.  And then there\'s Close Hatches who has made smaller progress in each start and Beholder who keeps running at the same level (albeit too slow to beat most of these unless they all come back to her.)

[big18741]

Alm

Small new top for Midnight Lucky and the La Derby for Revolutionary much faster than any previous race he had run?

What #\'s are you using?

[miff]

www.thoroughbredchampions.com/showthread.php/16605


...... for those who prefer to look at the derby/oaks works for themselves,go to the above link. hope you find a nugget.

[alm]

Mine.

[big18741]

Now I sorta remember from last year.

Something having to do with Brisnet and your own formula?
Was curious since TG and Beyer have the La Derby really slow compared to Brisnet.

[alm]

What can I say?  Beyer\'s been making numbers for years and hasn\'t had the Derby right in a century or so. TG thoroughly missed the Derby the last few years.  This approach isn\'t as easy as it seems, because you need to make hard judgments about ground loss.  For what it is worth, the LA Derby outcome had about everything to do with ground loss.  Mylute and Revolutionary were about equal.  Their numbers were topped only by Goldencents in the SA Derby.  We all want to consider that he will bounce, but O\'Neill gets them to a spot and seems to keep them there (better living through chemistry or something like that.)  There are a lot of other horses in a tight range, very tight range.  When all is said and done the favorite Verrazano will have to jump over about five others to win.  Revolutionary is TAP\'s best shot the way I see it and he may bounce off the Louisiana race.  I mentioned the horses who seem to be moving up a small bit, race by race, and they seem most likely to get the job done: Orb, Normandy Invasion and, possibly, Verrazano.  I don\'t think Verrazano does it mainly because he seems stuck at his level.  For some reason and it may be physical he started late and he\'s been kept in the Pletcher hothouse.  It says to me that there may be a constant battle to keep him racing sound.

[ruthlessman]

You put together the cost associated with multiple combos of superfecta plays.

i.e.
4/567/5678/56789

[mjellish]

There are a number of free ticket calculator out there.  Just google them.  Or PM what you are considering and I will tell you how to figure out the cost.

But in essence, you take the number of horses in each segment that you are planning to use and multiply them.  If you are repeating a number from a different bracket you would subtract 1.  if repeating again, subtract another one.  So

1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4
costs 4 x 3 (4-1 for repeat) x 2 (4-2 for repeat twice ) x 1 (4-3 for repeat three times) = 24

1,2,3,4/5,6,7,8/9,10,11,12/13,14,15,16
costs 4 x 4 x 4 x 4 = 256

1,2,3,4/5,6/1,2,3,4/5,6
costs 4 x 2 x 3 (4-1) x 1 (2-1)

and so on...

Hope this helps.