ROTW: Questions for JB or AB & JC

[toppled]

Now I know the write-up on River Rocks talks positively about his synthetic TGI, but while River Rocks\' TGI indicates he should perform better on synthetic, his sire is only 2/46 on synthetic, a paltry 4% win percentage.  So with that good a TGI, but that poor synthetic win % what\'s the best way to interpret the data.  

Also-since the owner is Jim Covello, I\'ll ask him:
Jim,  
How\'s the horse\'s action on synthetics vs dirt?  How do you feel about his ability to handle poly?  
Good luck tomorrow & in the big one.

[covelj70]

Hey Toppled,

He\'s trained really well over the surface so we expect him to run his race.

Now, in my experience, training over it and running over it are two very different things as you really don\'t know how a horse handles it until they are set down for the drive and are really forced to dig into the surface but, as far as we can tell, he likes it alot.

I am flying down there for the race and I wouldn\'t do that if I wasn\'t confident he would handle the surface.

Thanks all,

Good luck

[drbillym]

Covelj70,  It is sporting of you to share your thoughts publicly, and we on the board are also fortunate to have the input from Pure Fun\'s 1/4 owner, who implies that winning is not a top priority for them.  That probably is a favorable thing for River Rocks as a front runner.  good Luck.

[richiebee]

Doc:

I thought it was great to get the owner input on Pure Fun, but then read in
DRF that McPeek says she\'s in it to win it.

That being said, given her wide post, a potential short price and the fact that
(according to DRF) she pulls no weight from her male rivals, I\'ll toss her out
of the horizontals.

Also in the Lexington, I am more positive on Pletcher\'s Winning Cause than the
ROTW analysis. WC is 2/2 at Keeneland in a field where most of the field has
never been on synthetic, and the only two runners to have won over it are
posted in outside stalls.

[toppled]

Thanks.  
Have a good trip & day.
And in the words of the late Al Davis-Just win baby.

[TreadHead]

It\'s difficult for me to see anyone betting this race with any sort of confidence.

Sunbean - has some very talented family, but absolutely no synth family racing history and those that did go on turf were much better on dirt.

Pick of the Litter - has a huge dirt figure and synth breeding that if he gets anywhere close back to that dirt fig probably wins this

Pure Fun - Fastest prior synth figure, 2nd time out at 3 after a very good 2yr old year, and similar horses in this pattern have fired very good races (Normandy Inv, Overanalyze, etc)

Winning Cause, River Rocks, Examine, Cerro, all solid forward-moving patterns who could like synth better based on breeding and have jump-up potential here.

And even General Election has a decent synth figure and some really good turf/synth sibs

If you can make heads or tails of this race, more power to ya.  I can\'t, other than to say I think those who are auto-tossing Pure Fun from the Tri are making a mistake

[plasticman]

Why would McPeek say \"we\'re not trying today\"?

Trainers always say \"training great, looking good, all systems go, etc\"