Derby Five

[Fairmount1]

I\'m going to go ahead and open Pandora\'s Box.  I do this because I have bet TAP\'s horses in the Derby in the past believing they are great \"value\" and well you know the stats.  I hear people even on this board say that many of his Derby horses had absolutely no shot going in to explain his Derby record.  So before the race, let\'s hear it now from all of the people that say his horses in the Derby are sometimes not a good fit for the race or weren\'t supposed to be there.

Which of his horses truly don\'t belong and can\'t win?

Verrazano--negative TG territory, m/l fav, undefeated.  Dist. challenged? Jock not in rhythm yet?  
Revolutionary-3 wins in a row, closing style, ability to maneuver through horses
Overanalyze--has a 0 on his resume, but largely unliked b/c of his Ark Derby
Palice Malice--3rd two turn race coming up, horrible trip supposedly in La (i still don\'t think he wins or is close), second in bluegrass, etc.
Charming Kitten--turf/synth horse

So, I see the first four as horses with potential angles to be used--now watch the Kitten come on up and get third.  Narrowing it down, I only like Revolutionary and Overanalyze on my tickets.  But again, I\'ve bet the TAP horses in Derby that looked like value so I\'m curious people\'s thoughts on his horses that don\'t belong before they run.

[big18741]

Maybe he pulls a Zito from 2005.

Bellamy Road
High Fly
Nobles Causeway
Sun King
Andromedas Hero

None of them sniffed the board.

[Wrongly]

Think the horse is TAP best shot but don\'t see Revolutionary as value with Calvin aboard!

[miff]

Verranzano was rank? I missed it.Also missed the pace of the Wood not being slow(headwind noted)

So, Julia ran Neg -8.25..... A standing O for JB!

[TGJB]

Any other approach to that day gave a lot of really good horses a lot of really bad figures. Don\'t focus just on the winners of the routes, especially that one. I predict that on Beyer and Ragoizin 80pc of the horses behind the route winners \"go forward\" next time out.

[miff]

\"I predict that on Beyer and Ragoizin 80pc of the horses behind the route winners \"go forward\" next time out\"

JB,

Agree, beause in their opinion and mine some of those horses behind X\'d more than your take on the routes.For example,Live Lively only went back like 1 point on your stuff from her previous race, from defeating DOJ by a length to being defeated by 21+. Tough to get my arms around, esp looking at the ORB race/raw times/splits.

Neg 8.25 or neg 4 isnt going to hepl much in assesssing what DOJ is apt to do in two weeks.

Mike

[TGJB]

Live Lively wasn\'t the problem. Aside from the rest of that race look at the older males behind the winner, and Fla Derby. The day looks fine except for one filly, and I can\'t justify chickening out to avoid giving one figure to a horse that won by 12 points. We\'ll see how it looks in 2 months.