2013 Kentucky Derby / Oaks Probables

TGAB · April 17, 2013, 04:29:32 PM

Similar to last year, this Friday 4/19, sometime in the afternoon, we will upload as a Special, ($25--not included in discount schedule and caps), the final preliminary file of contenders for both the Derby and the Oaks.

There will be no further updates or upgrades before the Derby / Oaks seminar and regular Churchill Downs cards.

big18741 · April 19, 2013, 02:48:47 PM

Just downloaded it.

We already knew where TG was going with the 3/30 GP races.

La Derby was kinda surprising though.

Thanks

jerry · April 19, 2013, 03:22:56 PM

Download not working. Is it different for Mac users?

phil23 · April 19, 2013, 03:24:19 PM

Worked fine for me (2010 Macbook Air).

jerry · April 19, 2013, 03:26:39 PM

Thanks. I got it now.

JohnTChance · April 19, 2013, 03:27:15 PM

Fascinating. At first glance, the Derby seems to come down to interpreting this question:

Will VERRAZANO go backwards, or forwards?

I was all ready to bet against him for the top spot, thinking he\'d go backwards (at least somewhat - a burn-effect from his fast second start). But, ugh... could that be some kind of (gulp!) recovery thing going on here? Whereby he forges forward another .75 of a point back to negative territory? You make the call.

Jerry: whatever you say about it, either now or later, I urge you not to do a Len Friedman. That is, don\'t say VERRAZANO has a X% chance to go forward and a Y% chance of going back. Hope to hear you\'re \"all-chips in\" opinion on this.

John Chance

TGJB · April 19, 2013, 03:42:39 PM

John-- That\'s doing a Friedman?

You\'re right, that figure is a pain in the butt. I said it to Alan as soon as I did the race.

JohnTChance · April 19, 2013, 04:00:04 PM

Well, a few years back I attended a few of his Derby seminars and he\'d tend to conclude his handicapping opinions by saying that horse X \"has a 60% chance of going forward and a 40% chance of going back.\" Or something along those lines, giving percentages of probabilities. Now... I respect him a lot and I know his job is tough etc. etc. But I\'d leave wishing for more definitive all-chips-in opinions one way or another on the horses he discussed. Hey Len, do you like this horse or not? [It\'s just like reading the movie reviews from former NY Times movie reviewer Janet Maslin some years back. You\'d read her reviews and say to yourself: \"Hey Janet, do you LIKE the movie or not!!!!?\"]

JTC

TGJB · April 19, 2013, 04:19:53 PM

For the record, when I look at the races for myself I think in percentages.