Pletcher Comebackers

[jimbo66]

As much as I hate to drop the discussion about how \"well\" Normandy Invasion ran in the Fairgrounds race and how the Remsen is not a negative key race, does anybody connect any dots as to why the top Pletcher 2 year olds are coming back so poorly.

Is it just precocious pedigrees that figured to not progress?  Just the law of averages with keeping these fragile animals in top form?

Shanghai Bobby ran fine, but the rest have been pretty poor.

[TreadHead]

I\'d still love to see some formal comments from the Delhomme camp as to what happened, as he was clearly amiss and didn\'t run anything close to his overall ability.  The only thing I\'ve seen so far is that he was extremely agitated in the paddock, perhaps knowing he was about to be thrown into a situation he hated last year.

Perhaps with him, Overanalyze, and maybe even NI too (we\'ll see) they all ran so hard in the Remsen at a too young an age and it was painful for them and created a negative mental block on racing during an age where they will never be right again.  This might explain NIs rankness in the Risen Star and Delhomme\'s paddock antics yesterday.

I\'m also reminded of another horse, think his name was Codoy, ran a turf route 2 as a 2yr old and seemed destined to be a major stakes player, but was never able to come close to duplicating it again on many tries.

Or maybe it caused physical problems (but with Overanalyze running back that doesn\'t seem to be right), I guess we don\'t really know for sure.  Some horses like Street Sense can run a big number at 2 and get back to it.  But as you mentioned, more often than not it seems they can\'t.

[Caradoc]

The first three finishers in the Remsen ran a number that is for most 2yos at best a stopping point and at worst a big setback point. Remember how long it took To Honor and Serve and Mucho Macho Man to get back to the big numbers they ran in the Remsen?  

Small point, but the Street Sense comparison is misleading as he ran his number in the pre-2009 steroid era.

[Fairmount1]

Jimbo66,

First time poster here, longtime reader for nearly a decade.  

Trying to make distinctions and fine line decisions (connecting the dots) about Pletcher horses is nearly impossble for me.  A friend of mine once stated a somewhat viable theory when you reflect on his 3yo\'s at Gulfstream (Florida):  Pletcher brings out his first timers at Gulfstream \"on top\" and they can maintain that form for only two races, **every once in a great while** three times.  

As for his 2yos that comeback as 3yos, I don\'t believe you can make a connection between precocity, law of averages, too fast too soon, etc.  However, I do wonder if the same idea applies:  That Pletcher brings his 2yo firsters out as fast as they can be and it is very difficult for them to maintain that level even with the big layoff.  I do believe that the large fields of the Points System Derby Prep Season has hurt his ability to find easy spots for grading earnings.  

Few interesting stats:  Pletcher has lost 15 in a row at Oaklawn according to Robert Yates of the Arkansas Democrat Gazette.  Equibase records show that at Churchill Downs Spring Meet 2012, Pletcher was 0-17 and the Churchill Downs Fall Meet 2012, Pletcher was 0-19.  At Gulfstream 2011-2012 Winter Meet, 40% winners and this Winter Meet at Gulf, 31% winners.

All I can discern anymore is that jurisdiction matters when Pletcher\'s name is listed as the trainer of record for an entrant.  Beyond that, I can\'t make heads or tail of his horses, this week\'s ROTW a perfect example.

[TGJB]

If those OP and especially CD stats are right they\'re pretty damn interesting.

It will be interesting to see what happens Derby week, he figures to have a starter or two.

[fjmb]

Who cares is my answer.  What\'s the big deal with these prep races?  It\'s just another race in my book. Everybody gets so damn uptight.  I read about every excuse and every stat about why a horse lost.  We should forget about the other 9 races on the card.  There were a 1000  races run yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit something big? Is anybody winning?  I say, Lets hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give out their own selection.  Otherwise all we\'ll read is more excuses about a horses\' performance, restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption, drug voilations, etc.  

I know why I am here, to make money betting horses!!!!!  I get no extra credit for hitting the Derby or any of its prep races.

BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses in the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.

[ajkreider]

Revolutionary and Violence ran just fine.  And Palice Malice and Capo Bastone haven\'t covered themselves in shame either.

If you have a lot of good two year olds, you\'re going to have a lot of three year old busts.

[Fairmount1]

Shanghai Bobby:  2nd by 2 lengths behind track record setter in 1:41.81. Fast pace from rail at even money (1:10.69 through 6f), competitive when challenged, well clear of 3rd place.  Winner reminiscent of Hey Byrn....Bobby continued to fight after being passed.

Violence:  Competitive when challenged, ran \"admirably\" but fractured his ankle in defeat to Orb, who according to some had a perfect setup pace-wise while others say Orb was the only closer on the day running against a bias.  Violence continued to fight after being passed.  Grade 1 winner\'s career is over, Stud Value.  

Verrezzano:  No 2yo form.  3 top notch efforts that look almost \"effortless\" all in Florida.  I hope he makes that starting gate as heavy fav in Louisville cause I\'ll be betting AGAINST.  Has never been passed in the stretch.

Overanalyze:  An absolute \"no show\" in Gotham at 8/5.  Appeared to have no response whatsoever in the stretch.    

Revolutionary:  Unusual four tries to break his maiden for TAP but once he dd he fired another big shot with so-called \"adventurous\" trip in Withers from last to first stretch run.  Ran \"bravely\" in stretch to split horses.  

Palice Malice: Interesting first two turn route in Louisana on a track I deem quirky based on moisture that weekend and raw time issues compared to other races on the day.  Finshed 3rd.  Continued hard to the wire despite deep close by winner past Baffert charge and this one.  

Capo Bastone:  Not in TAP\'s care as a 2yo.  Comeback was an amazing time of 1:48.16 if only it was at 1 1/8 miles, not 1 1/16.  In his defense, he was wide throughout both turns, possibly 5w first turn. But was able to get past the loose on the lead winner in the stretch and stay on to defeat that horse who has done nothing since when being placed over his head.  

Forty Tales:  Just missed in the Hutcheson after closing with a rush to get 2nd.  Ran an abysmal 5th at even money at Gulf in the Swale. Winner Clearly Now of the Swale came out of the Holy Bull race with Bobby and \'luckyday.  One huge effort at Gulf for Pletcher, then an \"off\" effort.  

Park City:  Ran terrbly at Tampa when Pletcher said he would scratch if all was well with Verrazzano.  Did he lie to us?

Delhomme:  Ran terrible at Oaklawn after 3 months off.  \"Distanced.\"  

Those are the 3yo\'s I\'ve paid attention to thus far from Pletcher\'s barn this year.  Verrazano is this year\'s Eskendreya, Uncle Mo, Dunkirk, Gemologist, Etc etc although I will note that one noted vet tweeted after Verrazzano\'s big Tampa Bay Derby win. This is the same story every year with the same result excepting Super Saver.  An interview with Pletcher about how game Delhomme and Overanalyze were in the controversial (on this site) Remsen stakes is on HRTV\'s website.  Watch the replay of the stretch run of Delhomme and Overanalyze in the Remsen, neither of which replicated that \"gameness\" in their comeback 3yo races as jimbo probably is referencing to start this thread.    

On an unrelated note, has anyone seen a famous vet discuss Ken Ramsey using the product Lubrisyn for humans for his own knees to avoid knee replacements?  You can\'t make this stuff up. Just start with a table spoon......

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYQV9-8t3KU

[Silver Charm]

What did a noted Vet tweet after Tampa?? Clarify please.....and thanks

[Fairmount1]

Cut and pasted from Twitter, with a date of March 9

Dr. Steve Allday ‏@Fourlegsdoc

Just in case you missed it today, Verrazano showed us what the BEST stable in America does in Derby preps. Team Pletcher does it AGAIN!
_____________________________________________________

Then on March 15, his next tweet which I find somewhat \"cryptic\"

Dr. Steve Allday ‏@Fourlegsdoc

Under the impression that lots of trainers across America are having difficulty racing without Salix? \"Everything changes with time!\" Adapt!

[richiebee]

fjmb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Who cares is my answer.  What\'s the big deal with
> these prep races?  It\'s just another race in my
> book. Everybody gets so damn uptight.  I read
> about every excuse and every stat about why a
> horse lost.  We should forget about the other 9
> races on the card.  There were a 1000  races run
> yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit
> something big? Is anybody winning?  I say, Lets
> hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give out
> their own selection.  Otherwise all we\'ll read is
> more excuses about a horses\' performance,
> restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption, drug
> voilations, etc.  
>
> I know why I am here, to make money betting
> horses!!!!!  I get no extra credit for hitting the
> Derby or any of its prep races.
>
> BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses in
> the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.

The fact that the activity increases here at certain times tells you all you
need to know. While a lot of folks probably bet cheap horses at cheap tracks,
as I\'ve said before, its like boinking a hefty lass or riding a MoPed: Ok
fine, but probably something you\'re not going to share with your friends.

The Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup races are where it all comes
together. Big fields/Quality horses/lots of vertical/horizontal wagering
opportunities (plus the overnight doubles ie Oaks/Derby). The chance to see a
horse or horses which are historically significant. The chance to see a long
standing track record be broken (How good was Bright Thought at SA on
Saturday?).

Also, future wagers on the Derby. The initiator of this thread has had some
tantalyzing near misses and miserable bad luck with KY Derby future wagers;
for people involved in the futures trade the Derby season starts 9 or so
months before the race. A unique wager and eventually CD will wake up and have
at least one pool where all nominees are in the pool individually.

Neither God nor JB forbids you posting your selections, though the latter
would probably ask that said selections be accompanied by some TG figure based
theory.

My fellow Staten Islander Miff and I are responsible for the most NYRA bashing
on this site, but I\'ve stopped. I also haven\'t bet a NYRA race since January 1.
Waiting for quality thoroughbred racing to return to NYRA, which should be
Wood Day, Memorial Day, Belmont Day. Otherwise, so long as the Campo regime is
responsible for racing, I see month after month of cheap turf sprints.

As to drugs and drug violations, can not discuss racing without discussing
PEDs. If you are betting the races without handicapping the hop, good news, TGs
soon to be available in Braille.

Deep thought of the day: I want to die peacefully, in my sleep, like my
grandfather, not screaming in terror like the passengers in the car he was
driving.

[shanahan]

That one never gets old...

[TGJB]

Richie-- God switched over from Rags a long time ago, he says he wants the handicapping to be TG based too.

[P-Dub]

-------------------------------------------------------
> fjmb Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Who cares is my answer.  What\'s the big deal
> with
> > these prep races?  It\'s just another race in my
> > book. Everybody gets so damn uptight.  I read
> > about every excuse and every stat about why a
> > horse lost.  We should forget about the other 9
> > races on the card.  There were a 1000  races
> run
> > yesterday, didn\'t anyone make a score or hit
> > something big? Is anybody winning?  I say, Lets
> > hear some Chatter!! God forbid somebody give
> out
> > their own selection.  Otherwise all we\'ll read
> is
> > more excuses about a horses\' performance,
> > restaurant recommendations, NYRA corruption,
> drug
> > voilations, etc.  
> >
> > I know why I am here, to make money betting
> > horses!!!!!  I get no extra credit for hitting
> the
> > Derby or any of its prep races.
> >
> > BTW ... If Pletcher had 19 out of the 20 horses
> in
> > the Derby I still wouldn\'t bet on him.
>
richiebee Wrote:
 
> The fact that the activity increases here at
> certain times tells you all you
> need to know. While a lot of folks probably bet
> cheap horses at cheap tracks,
> as I\'ve said before, its like boinking a hefty
> lass or riding a MoPed: Ok
> fine, but probably something you\'re not going to
> share with your friends.
>
> The Triple Crown races and the Breeders Cup races
> are where it all comes
> together. Big fields/Quality horses/lots of
> vertical/horizontal wagering
> opportunities (plus the overnight doubles ie
> Oaks/Derby). The chance to see a
> horse or horses which are historically
> significant. The chance to see a long
> standing track record be broken (How good was
> Bright Thought at SA on
> Saturday?).
>
> Also, future wagers on the Derby. The initiator of
> this thread has had some
> tantalyzing near misses and miserable bad luck
> with KY Derby future wagers;
> for people involved in the futures trade the Derby
> season starts 9 or so
> months before the race. A unique wager and
> eventually CD will wake up and have
> at least one pool where all nominees are in the
> pool individually.
>
> Neither God nor JB forbids you posting your
> selections, though the latter
> would probably ask that said selections be
> accompanied by some TG figure based
> theory.
>
> My fellow Staten Islander Miff and I are
> responsible for the most NYRA bashing
> on this site, but I\'ve stopped. I also haven\'t bet
> a NYRA race since January 1.
> Waiting for quality thoroughbred racing to return
> to NYRA, which should be
> Wood Day, Memorial Day, Belmont Day. Otherwise, so
> long as the Campo regime is
> responsible for racing, I see month after month of
> cheap turf sprints.
>
> As to drugs and drug violations, can not discuss
> racing without discussing
> PEDs. If you are betting the races without
> handicapping the hop, good news, TGs
> soon to be available in Braille.
>
> Deep thought of the day: I want to die peacefully,
> in my sleep, like my
> grandfather, not screaming in terror like the
> passengers in the car he was
> driving.


Absolutely agree that the big races are more fun to talk about, and create great interest on the board.  I check in regularly to read all of the divergent and interesting comments

Yeah, its nice to tell someone you had Giacomo (ridden by the worst jockey, per TG \"experts\", ever to ride in a big race. Interesting that on a board that relishes numbers and statistics, the guy with more BC wins than any other jockey gets ridiculed on a regular basis around these parts. And for the guy that brings up his ROI, his derby ROI is pretty good).

But other than an offhand remark you had it, does it really matter??  If you dinged a 20k super on a maiden race at Tampa Bay, that aint boinking some fat chick. I hit a dime super for $1500+ on a $2.40 ticket at Penn last year. I\'ve hit other large win mutuels, vertical/horizontal bets. I\'ve shared them with plenty of people that have asked about big scores and such. A score is a score.  Bragging about hammering a 3/1 shot??  Now thats like boinking a \"hefty lass\".

I love the conversation, but I wouldn\'t look down on someone making a score at Penn, Sam Houston, or any other lower level track. The money spends the same no matter where you get it.  And the stories about them no less interesting, IMHO.

Lastly, awesome performance by Bright Thought....and congrats to Jorge Gutierrez for his first Graded Stakes win.

[JohnTChance]

For me, the best reason to read @Fourlegsdoc\'s tweets was last August when considering DULLAHAN in last year\'s Pacific Classic after a 7th in the Belmont and 5th in the Haskell. He tweeted:

\"A week of travel to SoCal (Del Mar Racetrack), Louisville and back to Saratoga today! Phew!!! Travel is starting to get to me.\"

Del Mar? So Dr. Steve flew 3000 miles to Del Mar, eh? To put the good wood to... who? DULLAHAN, of course! All doubts I may have had about the 3-year old\'s chances in the Classic vanished. That was the play! [Slow zoom in to me as the realization of what\'s gonna happen here come\'s over my face. This boy was gonna run!] The tote board said tilt early, drifted up to 5-1 and DULLAHAN indeed ran a beauty. 5-wide far turn move to run down GAME ON DUDE.

Let us now praise social media and all good men.

JTChance