Tapit

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Andy Beyer just wrote a glowing report about Tapit\'s Kentucky Derby potential so I decided to look into the horse. He\'s won his two races by a combined 13 lengths and was covered up for much of the last. (The Laurel Futurity)

Beyer called Tapit\'s female family \"Regal\" so I elected to start with pedigree. The first thing that jumps out of the page at you is that he\'s bred 3 x 4 to Mr. Prospector. Apparently the \"Best Blood of Pulpit\'s Dam\" they elected to \"return to him\" was Mr. Prospector. (Noting it returns \"Tail Male\".)

But he is also line bred to Nijinsky 5 x 3 and Nijinky\'s blood does trace Tail Female.

Pulpit\'s dam of course was a horse named Preach. A horse I bet with conviction against as soon as the distances grew long. Pulpit himself was another. The first time I beat him was in the Florida Derby with Captain Bodgit. I haven\'t seen him throw a quality distance horse yet. Perhaps Tapit is the one. But if he is the one I\'m not fully supportive that he is based upon his  Mr. Prospector breeding.

Tapits dam (Tap Your Heels) is a 3/4 sister to Rubiano, who was sired by Fappiano. They share the same dam \"Ruby Slippers\". Rubiano was by far Ruby Slippers best foal and he was a sprinter/miler much in the mold of Pulpit. Tapit\'s dam \"Tap your Heels is also linebred 4x3 to \"In Reality\" (Rubiano was 3 x 3) and you have in my opinion is more evidence of a sprint/miler oriented pedigree. Rubiano was a grey and he was precocious at two years old. The same is now true of Tapit. Though Tapit has even more Mr. Prospector blood. So though I like the Nijinsky inbreeding its near effect to me is one of speed and I\'m not sure with the Prospector inbreeding more speed was what was needed.

Now as a caveat Tapit may freak. I can\'t say with certainty yet because I have not analyzed his Laurel Futurity win. I know nothing of the times, (other than 1:43:81...if i recall accurately) his conformation etc. I do know however that the competition in Maryland can be suspect. Just what kind of horse did he beat in the second place finisher \"Polish Rifle\"?

The Nijinsky blood did not help Pulpit, but if Tapit does freak I will attribute it to the 5 x 3 linebreeding to Nijinksy. Until more race data is available, I\'m of the opinion that \"IF\" he stays together he\'s gonna be a nice sprint/miler. Rubiano was grey and he stayed together.

CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Sorry forgot this:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=tapit&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n\">

[Michael D.]

tapit\'s pedigree reminds me a lot of take charge lady. by a young sire who was bred to go long, but had distance limitations, out of a mare from the ruby slippers line. i see tapit being a lot like TCL down the road.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think I know what you mean Michael. Pedigrees are debatable things and I think it can be argued that Take Charge Lady\'s Top-Side \"Dehere\":

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=take+charge+lady&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n

is as strong or stronger than Tapit\'s Top-Side \"Pulpit\":

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=tapit&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n

Where I begin to question Tapit\'s pedigree is in the 3 x 4 linebreeding to Mr. Prospector. That said, I do like Unbridled in the Bottom-Side.

Take a look at Tapit\'s 5 cross pedigree above and note that \"grey\" in his coat descends in direct \"Tail Female\" back to his great, great, great maternal grandparents: \"The Axe\" and \"Silver Song\". I think Tapit probably got his grey from this branch of the family. I believe Rubiano got his grey from this branch as well. However, with the Mr. Prospector linebreeding, I haven\'t yet ruled out the fact that they grey in Tapit\'s coat may be a genetic throw back to a grey of a different era:

 http://www.thoroughbredchampions.com/gallery/NativeD.htm

If you wish to view this horse\'s pedigree note how the grey in his coat appears to have been passed in direct genetic Tail Female as well:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=native+dancer&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n

They\'re all gone now, Native Dancer, Raise a Native, Mr. Prospector, Fappiano and Unbridled. Gone also are Alfred Vanderbilt and Eddie Guerin. Upon his passing, I read that Guerin was a teller at Calder Race Track in his later years. I cut my teeth on this tough game there and had I known he was about, I\'d certainly have sought him out for a cold drink of his chosing and I\'d have dearly loved to chat with Audrey Wallace as well.


CtC

I like the fact that Tapit is already running successfully in routes.

I find that trainers (and horses) often tip their hand about distance abilities by the type of races they debut in, their running style in them, and when in the season they actually debut.

When I see a 2YO wiring 5F races in May, I am immediately suspect about its chances to stretch out for the classics regardless of the pedigree. If the pedigree is suspect, then forget about it.  

On the flip side, if he debuts in late summer or early fall at 7F or longer and wins from off the pace, I view that as a more positive sign.

I like to use clues like these \"in combination with pedigree\".

I also like to examine the horse\'s performance figures as they stretch out for signs of improvement or lack thereof.

IMO the very best trainers have some insight into their horse\'s stamina etc... and spot them accordingly. I also find that it is a very rare and special horse that can wire 5F in May and then win at 10F the following May.

I\'m not a pedigree expert, but if Tapit\'s pedigree is slightly suspect for long distances, the evidence so far counters that based on my personal views. If I had to guess right now, I would say tapit will get 10F in May. Now he just has to be good enough.



Post Edited (11-28-03 09:19)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Class,

I tend to agree with you about late year route racing showing more Derby potential than early year 2 year old sprints. Additionally, I never said pedigree alone was my yardstick for determining a Derby winner. I\'ve tried to be somewhat reserved about Tapit. The reason is almost every Laurel Futurity I can recall was run in 1:44 or slower. (Caveat: as the race has fallen a bit from significance I haven\'t stayed on top of it) T-Graph has a number for the race. I think it\'s a fairly fast number. I am already so impressed with Tapit that I\'m about ready to concede that he will be a good miler in the mold of Rubiano.

However, Tapit is not the first precocious 2 year old to run 8.5 marks like a good thing in November or December. Though he may be one of the more lightly raced to do so. Theres been plenty of others. Recently, I\'d point to Afternoon Delites, Favorite Trick and a Pletcher trained 2 year old by Southern Halo whose name I can\'t recall just now.

As for trainers having any idea on just how far their horses may run I like to think we handicappers are a better judge of that. My principle is to ignore almost everything a trainer says about a promising horse.

Dickinson is obviously a good trainer. Da Hoss and El Huevo shed some light upon that, but standing alone, his decisions upon where to place Tapit won\'t carry the horse those last two marks in the Derby when he\'s under the pressure of quality competition. Dickinson is being very careful with Tapit. It seems the plan may be to have perhaps two more races in him prior to the Derby. If so, he\'d be coming into the Derby with a total of four starts under his belt. That would be significantly fewer than the two year olds I mentioned above. But training a horse up to the Kentucky Derby in a conservative Irish Darby manner will not impart to that horse the ability to run further in quality company than he would otherwise be capable of. Which is not to say just yet that Tapit doesn\'t have that stamina.

This is an interesting year. Many horses skipped the Breeders Cup Juvenile and as of now there is no Derby standout. Is it Action this Day? The leading prospect may be Tapit, but right now I\'d project an out of the money finish for him and that projection is based upon pedigree.

As Beyer implied theres a timetable to make the Derby and a trainer that is used to picking his spots can\'t expand that time to his benefit by insulating his horse from  competition and seasoning until the big day. Baring misfortune, I\'m sure Tapit will run 9 marks by Floridy Derby or Wood or Santa Anita Derby or Arkansas Derby or Blue Grass time. Lets see how he fairs there before we begin seriously considering his ability to win the 2004 Kentucky Derby.

I guess I\'ve belabored this a bit...but Beyer started it.

lol

CtC