A few thoughts about Excelebration

[richiebee]

1) Can JP O\'Brien tack 126 pounds? Have heard that this tall lad has been fighting
the weight all summer.

2) Most of Excelebration\'s mile runs have been on straight courses; how will he fare
in a tight turned, two turn event?

3) If Excelebration puts in a non effort, will the Frankel skeptics come out of the
woodwork?

Not knocking this obviously talented runner, who I think has more upside than Wise
Dan. Just asking questions.

[MO]

I am not thrilled with the quick turnaround/short rest.

[phil23]

He\'s a great horse, but from a sheet theory pov, hard to like no? Just 2 week turnaround, intercontinental ship, pre lasix not as fast as WD (or the ahem...obvious...lone speed), coming off a top, and he\'s the fave!

Aren\'t we supposed to toss this guy and all make lots of money when he\'s off the board?

The one point in his favour would be his 3yr old to 4yr old Sire profile grow up of 3.25pts. Even with the new top, he still has 2 more points in him, in theory. Which would put him on par with Wise Dan (who certainly has not exactly been rested himself...3rd race in 7 weeks).

But gotta think the 14 day turnaround & ship mitigates that.

[richiebee]

The two week turnaround plus ship would worry me more if the horse weren\'t in the
hands of a top trainer/ owner. If anything, looks like they chose an easy $1.6
million Group 1 prep for this race; it looked like he coasted in that prep.

Now to Wise Dan and I am going to get away from the numbers here so if you like Kool
Aid stained lips, stop reading. Who has WD beat in his smashing mile turf victories?
Willcox Inn, G2, G3 winner in Illinois who was a suck up second in the Shadwell? Gr 3
winner Corporate Jungle, who has won a Gr 3?

Knocks on Danny Boy: Toughest field he has faced, shipping East/West, short priced.

Liking more I look: Moonlight Cloud, beaten length and a half by Excelebration with
a \"rough trip\" comment at Deauville, beaten a head by Black Caviar at equal weights
at Ascot. Hoping the fans are all in on the two faves and this filly floats to 10/1.

[milwmike]

In the WO Mile, WD beat Cityscape by 4.25 lengths (catching 3 pounds).  In his last, Excelebration beat Cityscape by 3 at level weights.

[MO]

I think the home court advantage is a huge edge here this year, and look at those raw times put up by Obviously. Not many here who can run a sub 132 mile. Thinking he\'ll wire this field.