Bouncing Wise Dan?

[drshillito]

Lets get back to handicapping as Keeneland opens on Friday and this Kentucky boy is very glad to see the doors open after a month of horrific Turfway fare.

I\'ve always kept a mental note to keep an eye on Charlie Lopresti runners off of huge efforts.  I think sometimes his runners will regress off of monster efforts and short turnarounds.  Now, obviously Wise Dan is a special animal with probably the most talent of any horse that Lopresti has ever trained, but he has turned in four monster efforts this year (2 on turf, 1 on dirt, 1 on poly).  And as TGJB has warned us over the years, those huge figs can take a toll on a horse over time.

To add fuel to the fire, I recall a TGJB lesson on how horses will sometimes miss the break or bear in, bear out, etc when they are \"over the top\".  For example, I Want Revenge\'s near disastrous break from the gate in the Wood Memorial foreshadowed his subsequent injury that led him to be declared from the KY Derby.  Well, Wise Dan was designated with the \"op\" last time and it makes me wonder if now is the time to take a shot against him on Saturday.

And last but not least, Dan is 0 for 1 on the Keeneland turf, finishing 4th last year behind Gio Ponti in the same race (probably a tougher spot than this year\'s version).

All this adds up to me taking a shot against Wise Dan in horizontals.  Will likely include Dominus, Data Link, Worthadd and Corporate Jungle.

Thoughts?

[richiebee]

drshillito Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lets get back to handicapping as Keeneland opens
> on Friday and this Kentucky boy is very glad to
> see the doors open after a month of horrific
> Turfway fare.
>
> I\'ve always kept a mental note to keep an eye on
> Charlie Lopresti runners off of huge efforts.  I
> think sometimes his runners will regress off of
> monster efforts and short turnarounds.  Now,
> obviously Wise Dan is a special animal with
> probably the most talent of any horse that
> Lopresti has ever trained, but he has turned in
> four monster efforts this year (2 on turf, 1 on
> dirt, 1 on poly).  And as TGJB has warned us over
> the years, those huge figs can take a toll on a
> horse over time.
>
With a Grade 3 win on synth, two graded wins on turf and a narrow loss to Ron
the Greek on dirt in the Foster (G1), this guy has to get some HOTY consideration
if he wins a BC race. If you are trying to beat him, you have to hope that
Lopresti is focusing on a BC race and will not have this one fully cranked for
the Shadwell.

> To add fuel to the fire, I recall a TGJB lesson on
> how horses will sometimes miss the break or bear
> in, bear out, etc when they are \"over the top\".
> For example, I Want Revenge\'s near disastrous
> break from the gate in the Wood Memorial
> foreshadowed his subsequent injury that led him to
> be declared from the KY Derby.  Well, Wise Dan was
> designated with the \"op\" last time and it makes me
> wonder if now is the time to take a shot against
> him on Saturday.
>
> And last but not least, Dan is 0 for 1 on the
> Keeneland turf, finishing 4th last year behind Gio
> Ponti in the same race (probably a tougher spot
> than this year\'s version).

I\'m all over horse for course angles, but you have to give me something more
to work with than a one race sample!
>
> All this adds up to me taking a shot against Wise
> Dan in horizontals.  Will likely include Dominus,
> Data Link, Worthadd and Corporate Jungle.

Of the ones you mentioned, my only comment would be that Dominus got an
incredibly easy and relaxed lead in the Baruch and probably will have pressure
to contend with on Saturday.
>
> Thoughts?

I\'m focusing on Belmont Saturday, but two Keeneland runners in the 10th race
caught my eye: Azorina, who trailed the field in her first start at Arlington,
gets a total makeover (blinx, Lasix) for David Carroll stretching to two turns
with outstanding breeding. Bird Swing, for Ian Wilkes, goes sprint to route, turf
to synth after being well beaten at 4/1 at Ellis. Must have been shocking to see
the iconic Whitney colors at the Pea Patch. Both fillies are 15/1 ML.

[covelj70]

Hi guys,

Hope everyone is well.

I think the thoughts on Wise Dan are very interesting and I obviously agree given that I am taking a shot in there with Swift Warrior.

Let me say upfront that Wise Dan is an amazing horse and anyone would obviously be blessed to own a horse like him.

That said, I don\'t see him winning this race tomorrow.  I honestly have no idea who will win but I would be surprised if it was him.

There are two reasons:

1) a backwards trending pattern with not enough time after his last to think he will reverse the backward trend

2) what could be a suicidal pace scenario and he is typically near the pace

Now, my original thought in entering Swift Warrior was that if Wise Dan went in the race, alot of others would get scared off but it seems like there are too many wise guys (pun inteded) like myself who are thinking the same way.

I think the race sets up for a closer but it\'s tough to figure out which one.  Corporare Jungle and Data Link look like the obvious ones but in my experience, when a race falls apart on pace, the entire form of the race falls apart (think Giacomo Derby) so it\'s not always the fastest closer or 2nd fastest figure horse that wins  the race.

With all of this said, I probably just guarenteed another open length victory for Wise Dan but here\'s hoping for a different outcome.

Good luck to everyone.

Jim

[Silver Charm]

Good Luck Jim! You cant win if you are not in and that is a big purse.

Ritchie with more wins he certainly gets consideration but he hasnt won a Grade One in America yet this year and he appears to have distance limitations or the guy would be stretching him out not shortening him up. That is a good card at Keeneland.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Richiebee....

NC Tony Live in Lexington....FWIW watch out for kentucky down preps for Kee meet especially on younger horses. Seen it all to often that horses that fade at KD got great conditioning @ KD> They tend to get overlooked. Especially like the #1 in Race 4 today. If horse takes to poly with the short stretch they use for the 8.5 race....and if you can get the ML and it has a fig it can run back to.....well.

The other one is the Lukas horse in Race 6. A stab for sure....but again may have gotten the conditioning it needs for this race.

NC Tony

[TGJB]

Doing the race for ROTW.

[Wrongly]

Jim

Best of luck with Swift Warrior maybe I\'ll run into you tomorrow.  Like the fact that Swift Warrior is 2nd off the layoff and won pulling away last time.  There is a bunch of speed in the race but I kind of like taking a horse who might get first run at them rather than a deep closer.  I keep coming back to Corporate Jungle, sure he got beat by 5 lengths by Wise Dan but Chad Brown is very good with this layoff type of runner.  Will use him, Shug\'s Data Link and your horse.  Good Luck.

[richiebee]

Silver:

WD has won 3 graded stakes at nine furlongs in the last 12 months, so it is hard
for me to view him as \"distance limited\". Are you saying that a horse has to be
successful at the so-called \"American Classic\" distance of 10 furlongs to be
considered for HOTY?

Hoping that a certain 3YO Japanese stallion prospect does not back in to HOTY honors.

Enjoy the good racing tomorrow...