DeFRancis Dash for cash ROTW

[bdhsheets]

This weeks ROTW, besides the free Calder sheets, is Laurel\'s Frank DeFrancis Memorial.

I never read the analysis until I\'ve looked at the graphs myself. I\'m not certain who I like, but I know who I don\'t like. The fav Shake You Down at ML 4/5.

No doubt the critter has been extremely fast and that\'s the problem. -3\'s, -4\'s, -5\'s take a devastating toll physically on the horses. i.e.:

Harlans Hol put a couple -3\'s together before his on track injury.

Mineshaft retired after his 2nd ultra number -4 which dislodged a chip in his ankle.

Sightseek paired -3\'s, even with rest no go.

Perfect Drift, the juries still out on him.  Several -3\'s, was taken out by Funny C in the BC which didn\'t help.

Left Bank ran a monster -5 and died mysteriously.

Aldebaran puked after his -4, retired

Midas Eyes ran an eye popping -2.75 Mar 3yo fig and should be in this race [was on his agenda], but a no show.

Valid Video ran a gutwrenching -3 vs Shakey and while wining the Kings Bishop in \"slow\" sheet time, should be in this race but......

Which brings me back to Shakey. No doubt Scotty Lake has the best vitamins money can buy, but the horse is only human. ;-) His 2nd -4.5 was a solid 6 weeks before the BC and ran an \"X\". He\'s made his 2nd cross country trip, short rest, highweight spotting everyone .75-1.5 pts and should be parked wide in the race. So what\'s to like at a short price?

He might win by a pole, big deal. No real $$$ to be made. I\'ll toss him from the 1st two slots and perhaps \"use him lightly in the 3 and 4 holes\" [probably kick him from there also]

Good luck and may your next wager be a winning one.

I\'m not going to play the race, but I did take a look at it.  

IMO, Shake You Down deserves to be the favorite. Lot\'s of speed in the race, but he can stalk from his position.

Gators and Bears is a slowly improving 3 year old that could hit a new top today, but I don\'t think he\'s quite good enough to beat SYD yet. He will have to improve further.  
 
Boston Common was way better last year than it looks on paper. He was involved in some sensational duels with other fast sprinters, put them away, hung around late, and put up decent figures while still a 3 yo. IMO, he was on his way to becoming a top sprinter before they made the bad decision of putting him in the BC turf.  

He came back a little weak this year (maybe he was hurt. I didn\'t read anything), but he\'s starting to put it all back together now. IMO, one of his most underrated races last year was the duel against Thunderello, where Thunderello wore him down late. I played Thunderello out of that race in the BC Sprint (2nd at 50-1). OUCH!  There\'s at least some chance he\'s about to establish himself as the elite sprinter he showed the potential to become last year.
 
A Heuvo is an amazing situation. A  7YO gelding that came off a 4 year layoff?  Had a lot of potential, but IMO you just have to let him beat you. He\'s held together with a prayer.
 
The rest of them need for Shake you Down to not run his race and the wildcards to not reach new peaks. Anything could happen then.

[kev]

Outstander--A ouchy looking horse, no way.
Crossing Point--This might be the hardest read for me in this race. At 12-1 and a back number to run at and three 0\'s in a row??
A Huevo--12-1 seems to be way too low for this horse, pass.
Gators N Bears--The goods-does get a good weight break from the other\'s, has had many weeks from the top, top is good to win it in here, moving forward line in last two.The bad-is 6-1 really what I would take on him?? Not as my key horse, but a must use for the ex\'s.
Way To The Top--Does he keep playing the 0XOX game?? in this case OXOXO with maybe another X coming, even if he does pair up the 1 will it be enough, only if the others fall apart. The last X is worst than the one before, which isnt any good either.
Shake You Down--Oh yes the big 4-5 fav. unless he runs another -4 number, I really think this horse could get beat, and if he does win, he will have to earn it today. The bad news for the bettors trying to beat him is, I see him atless running a -1 in here, the good for us the weights will put that all out of whack.
Aggadan--I like horses breaking threw new tops just a little over the old ones, the problem with him is hes a 4yr-old and also he doesnt like to put back to back efforts, he does have some time coming into this race but at 8-1 seems a little low for me.
Take AChance On Me--I like his line into this one. It seems to me that the 3\'s are not hurting him anymore and he is ready to take off again, I think a -0.1 will give him a good crack at it, looking how the others might run. At 20-1 he is my top pick.
Boston Common--unless he goes up to 15-1 or more, I couldnt use him, I try to make it a rule to never key a horse who is coming off a top, unless its been paired and the timing is right and the 3yr-old breaking threw the 2yr-old top is always good to go. I\'ll play this one for the bounce.
Highway Prospector--I really think this horse should have ran his top in the last, I don\'t know if the dead rail had anything to do with that. Also the fact he bounce to the 4 which is worst that the other bounce he had been running, just over all I don\'t care too much about him, oh yes why hasnt he hit that 0 top of last year either.

[Michael D.]

no idea what the odds will be on these horses, and i might be coming up with a bunch of worthless favs, but........

race 5 - gill speedball looks ouchy, especially at low odds, but the other half might be looking at a jump up. bred to go long, and caught a rather slow pace last out.
AR will have to improve 3 or 4 lgths to contend, but with the two entered, i have to use them. Richetta has been beating up on mules, but has the figs to run with these, and should appreciate the stretchout. SM could run by them all late i guess, especially with the best rider aboard, but the two fast sprints in the slop just confuse me. i will try the 1 and the 3 in the exotics.

race 6 - prob looking at 3 favs here. expecting a rather fast pace, so i will try to beat the most likely favorite, GM. the dickinson horse probably had a bit left in the tank in his last, and is bred perfectly for the distance, have to use him. the dutrow horse is also bred to go long, and has a quick race under his belt, must use.
i will also toss in cape, since i am using 2 of the 3 favorites. the horse caught a sloppy track on 9/13, then had energy to spare when winning last. looks a tad slow on figs, but might improve. i will use the 1, 4 and 5 in the exotics.

race 7 - don\'t know much about patterns, but jorgie has paired a couple of fast routes, and has decent rest, i must use him. JTB also has good number power, and should benefit from a fast pace, use him as well. FB looks a tad slow, but has nearly two months rest, and should also benefit from the fast pace, i will use him. Mr O has some nice #\'s, but i am not sure he will hang on at the end of this tough race. LI also looks fast, and would be no surprise, but i will try to beat him. MKOT has very nice tactical speed, and a few #\'s that fit well with these. likes Lrl, and gets top jock. a use for me. so i will box the 4, 6 and 8, and use the 1 in the bottom slots of exotics. (keying on the 4 i guess).

race 8 - on paper, looks like a 2 horse race.
RC has the nice fig from 6/24, and gets an average pace scenerio here. i am hoping for a nice two wide stalking trip, and a win. DU looks like a good one, and should get better as she gets older. i will use here second though, hoping she does not get up in time.
the rest of the field looks a tad slow, but i will use VOTG, Alch, and Ret in the third and forth slots in the exotics.

race 9 - i see a wicked pace here, so i will try and beat a few of the fast front running types. Wil looks like she should get a decent trip, probably closing three wide. her figs match up well here, and should be flying late. i\'m not sure what to make of BYF. tough read coming off the turf tries, but she also matches up well fig wise, and gets a nice sit still rider in prado. use her as well. Gaz also fits well here, and i will toss in the 1, 2 and three on bottom. so the 8, over the 7, over the 5, and toss in the 1,2,3 in the bottom part of the sup.

race 10 - i like the ROTW analysis. SYD is the best, and i will use him as everyone else will. i will also use Agg. he closed nicely into a very fast race last, hitting the 6f mark in around 1:08.3. what would his fig had been if the race was only 6f? GNB is my third choice. nice figs, and loves 6f at Lrl. the only other horse i will toss in is AH, who looks awful ouchy, but if fit, might be flying at the end. so i guess i will go with 6 and 7 on top, and also use the 3 and 4.

I don\'t what you can say about Michael Dickenson. A Huevo was obviously a horse of great potential in 1999. But this horse was away close to 4 years before returning. A 7 year old gelding held togther with spit, bandaids, Scotch Tape, and a prayer. What a marvelous training job to get him to move forward and win this race.

[Michael D.]

race 5 went as expected. i used the winner on top, but still used the gill horse after the speedball scratched. i think SM needs to get back in the slop.

race 6 went as expected as well. the dickinson horse is one fast animal, a touch faster the the BC winner i imagine. boxed the 1,4 and 5 to cash a small exacta.

race 7 was ruined for me when my first two picks scratched out. i made a small win bet on FB, and cashed the win and pick 3 when his entrymate won (the one i tried to beat).

race 8 was also ruined when mt top pick was scratched. i wound up using DU and Retro sml in the exotics. even though i didn\'t think DU was all that good, i was surprised at how bad she flattened out. bad betting.

race 9 .... i used the winner, but not with BA, and i did not use the winner in the pk3.
looking back, Gaz did look pretty good on TG. if you tossed the 5 1/2 f effort, which was obviously just a tune up, the horse should have been used as much as Wilz... bad betting there.

race 10 was an amazing race. i boxed the 3, 6 and 7, and cashed a decent exacta (although i bet Agg to win). i thought for sure SYD was going to get beat out for second.... probably the luckiest bob i have ever won. dickinson is just unreal. absolutely unreal.

[jbelfior]

It pleased my heart to see a master like Dickinson beat out the vitamin man Lake. At times there is justice in this agme.



Good Luck,
Joe B.