took my lumps today

[justwin]

My only play that ran well was Fort Loudon. Wasn\'t really playing the race so i used him in doubles and in exactas with the 2 faves. I figured either one of Currency Swap or Trinniberg would run 1-2. So a big zero for the race. should have had the front/back wheel which I like to play with longshots. Motts horse in the last killed me. Looked like he towered over the field but not a good ride by Lezcano. Ran up on horses shortly after the start and ran wide. If he gets 2nd I get bailed out with the exacta.If anyone can make sense of Willy Beamin, Golden Ticket or the last race let me know. Also, Animal Spirits a little warm before the race. thought about paring my bets back. any thought on horses that look a little warm not completely washed out.

[Lost Cause]

Took a long hard look at Golden Ticket but dropped him because I said a Speightstown bred horse isn\'t winning the travers.  You figured a 2 would be enough to win here and that horse ran a 4 and then had a break in which he could have come back and moved forward.  I was looking for an excuse to drop him off my play and I found it with the Speightstown.  Alpha Bailed me out with the dead heat but all my tris and supers went in the garbage..

[Topcat]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Took a long hard look at Golden Ticket but dropped
> him because I said a Speightstown bred horse isn\'t
> winning the travers.  You figured a 2 would be
> enough to win here and that horse ran a 4 and then
> had a break in which he could have come back and
> moved forward.  I was looking for an excuse to
> drop him off my play and I found it with the
> Speightstown.  Alpha Bailed me out with the dead
> heat but all my tris and supers went in the
> garbage..


Your second sentence matched my mental processing, precisely.   Sorry I didn\'t follow up on it.

[PapaChach]

Haven\'t missed a Travers since 1986 and was there today. Took a few lumps myself, though the damage was light. Today was first time I bet since July 28th; thought a break was in order after a long losing streak.

Through good fortune had not attended a Travers sans seats in the clubhouse since \'93. Naively showed up at around two today, parked in the bushes on Ward St, and me and my 13 year old son got out and began lugging our lawn chairs and cooler toward the Nelson Ave entrance. Given today\'s humidity levels, this turned into quite the desultory trudge-fest, and any notions I had of reliving golden memories of the late \'80\'s/early 90\'s dissipated with the large amounts of sweat pouring off of us and with encountering the suffocating sea of humanity occupying the backyard. They announced the crowd at 46k and change, but it felt like twice that. Had to go all the way over to the playground to find room to put our stuff down. As soon as we did a little baby started screeching and I thought shit, I have an 11-month old, I could have stayed home if I wanted to listen to this. My son and I debated leaving immediately but we decided to stick it out.

I did not buy TG today so take my comments with the requisite grains of salt. Coming in off a losing streak and a layoff I set a strict total loss limit (which I hit with alarming ease) of $100 for the day, so spending $25 on the numbers seemed out of proportion to me, just like spending $200 for a pair of clubhouse seats on offer via craigslist seemed out of order, though next year, I\'ll do it if necessary.

Back in the day, the dad of a good friend of mine did his best to teach me the ropes. He didn\'t use figures but he did use, in my view, principles espoused here. One of the earliest lessons involved a Mack Miller trainee named, I believe, Coronation Cup, who ran in either a maiden or NW 1x grass race the day before the \'92 Travers. I liked a longshot in this race. My mentor told me the Miller horse, on offer at the unappetizing price of 8/5, was a cinch. He made me go watch the replay of her last race with him. I watched. She ran around the track unimpeded in like fifth all the way around; I didn\'t get it. I was expecting some checking or something.

He grabbed my shoulder and said, LOOK! PAY ATTENTION! SHE WAS FOUR AND FIVE WIDE ALL THE WHOLE RACE! I still didn\'t get it - geometry really was my worst subject in high school. But he broke it down for me, made me understand that being four or five wide all the way around meant the horse actually ran farther than other horses had in the same race.

I wound up betting the 8/5 shot over my longshot in a $20 exacta, backing it up for a couple. The Miller horse aired and my horse got up by a nose and I won what was for me, at the time, an absolute fortune, something like $600.

Another thing this guy used to harp on was avoiding at all cost horses who seemed to be making a habit of getting beat at short prices. I thought of his harping when I read the comments here about Animal Spirits and Night Site; both showed three straight short-priced beats in their last three outs. When I read the comments I thought their figs and/or patterns must have looked awfully good but I also thought, man, Sam would cry if he ever found out I\'d bet either of them. Unfortunately my son insisted on leaving after the Travers (in that one I bet the wrong McPeek), on our way out there was this nagging voice in my head telling me to run back to the windows to leave a bet on the eventual $16.60 winner, but alas, I had hit my loss limit for the day and decided against adding $20 to it, so my losing streak continued.

Anyway, as an intermittent TG user, I\'m genuinely curious to know if experienced users ever consider simplistic angles like \"don\'t bet horses who keep getting beat at short prices?\" Seems like even if the advantage on numbers is big, you have to be right so many times on repeat offenders like Night Site that it\'s not worth it. I will admit I used Animal Spirits among others over and under the son of Film Maker (thought the race cried out for a price, maybe next time); the Lukas piece wasn\'t one of the ones I put in the mix.

Last thought - to my eyes, best looking run I saw all day came from Zagora. Watched the race upstairs and got a good view, visually, it was impressive - she looked like she was shot out of a cannon as she inhaled Summer Soiree (my bet).

[richiebee]

PapaChach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
 
> Another thing this guy used to harp on was
> avoiding at all cost horses who seemed to be
> making a habit of getting beat at short prices. I
> thought of his harping when I read the comments
> here about Animal Spirits and Night Site; both
> showed three straight short-priced beats in their
> last three outs. When I read the comments I
> thought their figs and/or patterns must have
> looked awfully good but I also thought, man, Sam
> would cry if he ever found out I\'d bet either of
> them.

Guilty as charged, but I called Night Site \"the proverbial gift horse at odds of 3/1.\"
At 6/5, he was a no bet, and abandoned him in doubles when I saw the short price in
that pool. His numerical superiority was such that, however, he may have been
an \"only\" for me if the last race was part of a P4 pool.

> Anyway, as an intermittent TG user, I\'m genuinely
> curious to know if experienced users ever consider
> simplistic angles like \"don\'t bet horses who keep
> getting beat at short prices?\" Seems like even if
> the advantage on numbers is big, you have to be
> right so many times on repeat offenders like Night
> Site that it\'s not worth it. I will admit I used
> Animal Spirits among others over and under the son
> of Film Maker (thought the race cried out for a
> price, maybe next time); the Lukas piece wasn\'t
> one of the ones I put in the mix.

Multiple race wagers (I play) and superfectas (I do not play) make short price horses
a little more palatable than they were when MacK Miller was plying his trade and when
the NYRA wagering menu was not as extensive as it is now. The caveat so to speak on
Night Site was that he had wide trips in almost all of his races (arguably adding to
his number power) and was not moving inside significantly post position wise. I will
not get into a theoretical/heretical discourse here about downgrading horses whose
number power is to some extent a factor of wide trips.

Your recounting of an uncomfortable Travers Day reinforces what I have been telling
people this summer: Weekdays are very enjoyable at the Spa and I am going to make it
a point to make at least one midweek (Wednesday/Thursday) trip next year. Of course
there is no seminar, and there will be only four as opposed to five or six maiden
races, but the entire facility is much more pleasant and accessible during the week.

[PapaChach]

Thanks, and hope I didn\'t come off as a know-it-all, was just curious. Ultimately as someone still learning the TG ropes I guess what I try to gauge reading things here is how more experienced users put the figures in context in various situations - it\'s tempting sometimes to just bet numbers, no questions asked...especially when I\'m off my game, as I have been lately.

Agree on the weekday enjoyment, the mentor I mentioned was a huge fan of the last week of the meet. When the weather\'s right, it\'s terrific. Guessing the last week cards will generally be the type many of us complain about (though Saturday might be good) but still looking forward to it.

[SoCalMan2]

justwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
...............If anyone can make
> sense of Willy Beamin, Golden Ticket or the last
> race let me know........

Don\'t want to be accused of redboarding.....just trying to answer your query here........, but, I think a decent case can be made that Golden Ticket was playable if getting down to a 2 would be good enough.

If you look at his sheet carefully, his real quality is very hidden by races that need to be ignored for good reasons.  In his 2yo season, the only number that really matters is the 5.5 on Veteran\'s day.  Before that, he was a 2yo in April (meaningless fig) and running on plastic (not relevant for today).  However, a horse with a 5.5 top as a two year and no reaction point yet has got to look like a horse that will be a very strong three year old.  I think it is fair to ignore the rest of his 2yo season if what you are trying to do is forecast what this horse can do as a three year old on dirt.

Problem was his connections seemed to really want to run him on grass as a 3yo ....which just continues to obscure what he is on dirt even more.  Again, I would ignore that first grass effort...for a lot of reasons it is not relevant.  Then his second dirt figure is not terrible...7.25 on Feb 11....however, there are reasons to think that figure may not be fully solid (or not to pin that on him as his reaction point yet)...that race was a switched off grass md sp wt run on a surface rated gd....he won by 2 lengths going away over two horses that were again 8 lengths clear of 4th....think of these races when you see them.....early february at GP switched off turf, well meant horses scratched, patchy field, big margins, off surface....my only point is it is still hard to tell about the horse.....after that, he runs a 4.75 in a derby prep in early March...followed by a run on plastic and a run on an off track that he may have sustained an injury in...  If you reduce this horse down to his bare bones fast dirt career and ignore everything else......this is what you see a 5.5 top at 2 with no reaction and a 4.75 early 3yo new top...and a lot of time off going into late August.  McPeek is not a moron, he could bring the horse back in an NW1x allowance, so you need to figure that McPeek thought the horse would at least duplicate his Tampa Derby fig and could even show 6 months worth of maturity/improvement too...with that reasoning, it is not hard to argue that a 2 in late August is possible for a horse that ran a 4.75 in a Derby Prep in early March.

He only improved from a 5.5 to a 4.75 between 2 and 3 and really didn\'t have any opportunities to show what he could do.  An intelligent trainer thought he was doing decently, so you should figure he should probably run better than the 4.75...getting to a 2 is just not a big reach in these circumstances.

Again, I am not meaning to redboard here....just trying to answer the question of how to make sense of Golden Ticket.  Also, for those who question the breeding....just look at Haynesfield....my recollection is that he is by Speightstown and did not have distance limitations...what\'s more, Golden Ticket is out of a Deputy Minister broodmare, so there is some stamina on the bottom side (Haynesfield\'s BMSire was by Deputy Minister so maybe there is some nick at work).

[FrankD.]

So Cal,

Golden Ticket was discussed at length a good part of the day on the BBQ deck. TGAB, Bill Spillane, Bobby G., Wrongly, myself all used him in our equations in one form or another.

Great breakdown of his sheet and development pattern that some obviously new Tgenerates can learn from. The great thing about this forum is we never stop learning and hopefully the running breed can improve at the rate of the wagering breed here!

Great post,

Frank D.

[justwin]

So CAl,

Thank you. I took another look and certainly see your point. Lack of sheet experience/time devoted to studying is part of my failure.

George

[P-Dub]

Great job SoCal. Lots to learn from your post.

[FrankD.]

justwin,

As the propaganda minister for Animal Spirits yesterday he was no warmer or  more uncomfortable than anyone else as I stood 10 feet away from him in the paddock. He was not lathered up at all, the groom had a suit on, the owners and Al Stall all thought they were sending a winner out. I was convinced that it was it a perfect betting storm and backed my convictions!

Kudos to Rosario and D. Wayne on the blast off from the 11 post, game, set, match and we move on to fight another day.

Jose Lezcano by the way is 3rd in the jock standings averaging around $ 17.00 per winner and a ROI approaching 4.00 unbelievable numbers for one with 28 winners at this meet.

[justwin]

Frank,

I was Watching it on TVG, I didn\'t see him in the paddock but he was a little lathered up on the track. TVG also commented on it.

I\'ve seen lathered up horses win, . D\'Tara is the first to come to mind. I believe Shackleford as well.

I\'m just trying to get a feel from other players if they would normally back out of the play on lathered up horses.

George

[miff]

Some horses will lather all the time.If you see a horse that does NOT normally lather up getting that way, toss him. They win at a very low percentage.

[FrankD.]

One of the few disadvantages to horizontal wagers; your money is already in.

[Boscar Obarra]

3mtp and Royal Delta is quite washy, lets see.