Liason

[Topcat]

I was anything but a genius today (my one stroke of inspiration -- Linda Rice, straight, at that silly 25-1 -- failed to carry me despite my being live two ways in that double involving Alarmed N Dangerous in the first leg.  Got split in the AND exacta, alas).  But the pace of the King\'s Bishop proved a funeral pyre, and while Fort Loudon alllllmost took full advantage, Tricky did.   And Golden Ticket was more than fairly-priced . . . can see the McPeek/Cohen romance taking off.  Am potentially interested in the second half of Sunday\'s card, but see no reason to show up early.

[moosepalm]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-
> Maybe it\'s me,What am I missing??


Congrats that you had it, which I assume you did, as did quite a few others, because he was only 11-1, not 111-1.  But, some of us are just locked into the mindset that most horses need more than two days rest before running in a Grade 1 stakes.  Obviously, there are exceptions to nearly every maxim in horse racing, and we saw one today.  But, it\'s a value-based game, and quite a few people did not see value in getting 11-1 on a horse with two days rest.  So, what you might be missing is that in this game, there are usually pretty good reasons for and against making a play.  Those reasons serve you well in some races, and not so well in others.  I think it\'s that simple.  Tomorrow\'s a new day, and those principles will get tested once again.

[jimbo66]

You are missing a lot.

Saginaw was already the fastest or within a point of the fastest with a negative 3 or so BEFORE he ran back on short rest in the Met Mile.  And, BTW, he ran up the track.

Willy Beamin was well short of competitive with the top horses in this race today.

With what I saw hard to say that he ran a big new top, versus a whole bunch of trainers not having their horses ready to run in a big race.   Will wait to see final numbers before confirming that.

[P-Dub]

Lost Cause Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> jerry Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Wrong. Willy Beamin\'s drugs are just that good.
>
> agreed but that is unfortunately part of the
> handicapping process.  For 3 races this horse has
> been phenomenal so drugs or no drugs he was a
> horse to be included.  Saginaw was picked to win
> the met mile pretty much doing the same thing this
> horse is doing against so I don\'t see why there is
> an issue with this one.  
>
> Maybe it\'s me,What am I missing??


Nothing.

I cashed a very nice exacta ticket on that race.  People pissing and moaning about not including that winner have nobody to blame but themselves.  The race shape set up for closers.  Maybe 11-1 wasn\'t a great price, and I will say I had Fort Loudon as a win bet not WB, but I did include him in exactas and was rewarded.

People see value differently.  11-1 may not have been great win bet value, but $376 for a deuce exacta was fair enough to me.

[jerry]

Let\'s see. 6th fastest coming in. Running on 2 days rest off an effort. 11-1. The only reason to play him was the trainer.

[Boscar Obarra]

jerry Wrote:
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> Let\'s see. 6th fastest coming in. Running on 2
> days rest off an effort. 11-1. The only reason to
> play him was the trainer.

 Are you referring to the effort of leaving his stall for the last race?

[P-Dub]

jerry Wrote:
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> Let\'s see. 6th fastest coming in. Running on 2
> days rest off an effort. 11-1. The only reason to
> play him was the trainer.


If you\'re handicap strictly off of TG numbers, and I understand this is a TG board, then 11-1 may have been short.

Not everyone playing uses TG data, and TG data isn\'t the only data used to win at this game.

Also, how many times does the fastest horse, or best pattern, not win??  It isn\'t an exact science.

Odds and probability.  Some people thought 11-1 was a fair price. Because you didn\'t think that way, doesn\'t mean that those that cashed were wrong or betting an underlay.

As for value, its laughable that you can criticize someone for playing a 11-1 shot.  I\'ve seen people on this board do cart wheels over horses that pay single digits.

Value is whatever someone perceives it is. You might play a horse you think is value, and another may think you\'re nuts.  Its all relative.

I\'m not returning that exacta money, doesn\'t matter who thinks it was \"poor value\".

[jerry]

Am I mistaken or didn\'t he run a 4 in the West Point? Is that not considered an effort?

[miff]

In the Albany, he ran like a TG 4-5 which would be too \"slow\" for the Kings Bishop, making him non competitive yesterday.

Few saw the race coming apart and used him,could not bet monopoly money on him vs that group.

[moosepalm]

P-Dub Wrote:
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> I cashed a very nice exacta ticket on that race.
> People pissing and moaning about not including
> that winner have nobody to blame but themselves.

Boy, I know exactly what you mean.  My friend who bet Atigun in the Travers was whining about how the longer-priced McPeek entry got the brass ring, and he got squat with the one who figured to run better.  I\'m sorry but he has no one to blame but himself for betting a jock who will take his horse 3-4 wide on the turns as opposed to one who will give his horse a rail skimming ride.

See how this works, P-Dub?  You can redboard your way into justifying that you found \"value\" in every race, and if you don\'t get the desired outcome, you can scapegoat drug users, or jocks you don\'t like.  The reality is that you dance nearly every race with who brung you, in terms of betting strategy.  Good on you that it worked this time, but don\'t disparage those who spew sour grapes after a tough beat.  It doesn\'t diminish the value of your winning ticket, and you know as well as anyone, that what worked for you in that race, won\'t necessarily work in the next.  Just as you know, next out, Mike Smith might be the one to shoot the gap along the rail, and stick it to the bettors counting on a 4-wide trip.

[jerry]

I\'m not criticizing anyone for taking 11-1. I wish I had. But, considering there were 5 others in the race who had already run faster, and his best was 2 or 3 points slower than those, and he was running on 2 days rest after winning a state bred stake at 1 1/8 mile, and he had already improved 10 points from his 2 year old top and 5 points since late March when he was claimed for 25K, yes, I thought the price was light. In hindsight, 11-1 was the tell. A lot of people liked him.

[P-Dub]

moosepalm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
>
> > I cashed a very nice exacta ticket on that race.
>
> > People pissing and moaning about not including
> > that winner have nobody to blame but themselves.
>
>
> Boy, I know exactly what you mean.  My friend who
> bet Atigun in the Travers was whining about how
> the longer-priced McPeek entry got the brass ring,
> and he got squat with the one who figured to run
> better.  I\'m sorry but he has no one to blame but
> himself for betting a jock who will take his horse
> 3-4 wide on the turns as opposed to one who will
> give his horse a rail skimming ride.
>
> See how this works, P-Dub?  You can redboard your
> way into justifying that you found \"value\" in
> every race, and if you don\'t get the desired
> outcome, you can scapegoat drug users, or jocks
> you don\'t like.  The reality is that you dance
> nearly every race with who brung you, in terms of
> betting strategy.  Good on you that it worked this
> time, but don\'t disparage those who spew sour
> grapes after a tough beat.  It doesn\'t diminish
> the value of your winning ticket, and you know as
> well as anyone, that what worked for you in that
> race, won\'t necessarily work in the next.  Just as
> you know, next out, Mike Smith might be the one to
> shoot the gap along the rail, and stick it to the
> bettors counting on a 4-wide trip.

I can\'t disagree with any of this.

What works in one race doesn\'t mean it will work every time or in the next race. And I am still laughing at the last line. Geezus, thats a good one.

Didn\'t mean to sound harsh, but I have a buddy that complains when he doesn\'t have the winner and others do. Taking a tough beat is never fun, so apologies to those that took a tough beat if they Had FL for a nice win ticket. I wasn\'t thinking about that.

[TGJB]

Pdub-- did you write the article in today\'s times Magazine about being a lifelong Raiders fan?

[P-Dub]

No, can I find it online somewhere??

EDIT: Fund it, the 6 worst moments of being a Raiders fan.  I\'ll give my review on it after I read it.

[P-Dub]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Pdub-- did you write the article in today\'s times
> Magazine about being a lifelong Raiders fan?

This is completely off topic from horse racing, but since you mentioned it JB.....and I hope I don\'t start a 3 page mini thread, I\'ll review.  I\'m sure this will come across as a shocking development, but I disagree with this guy. Yeah, I now.

Here is his list of the 6 worst moments in Raiders history.

1. Tom Brady's Tuck (2002)
2. Super Bowl XXXVII (2003)
3. Drafting JaMarcus Russell (2007)
4. The Randy Moss Trade (2005)
5. Jack Tatum Paralyzes Daryl Stingley (1978)
6. The Immaculate Reception (1972)

My List:

1. The Immaculate Reception

Putting The Immaculate Reception at 6 is crazy. Its arguably number 1, both in its soul crunching finish and the fact it spring boarded that team I can\'t stand into a dynasty. Matter of fact, it is number 1. I can still remember watching it, I was 9 years old, and every time I see that clip - even 1000 times later - it still makes my blood boil. Terrible Towel my a**. I hate that roided up team.

Yes, I still am not over it. 40 years later.

2. Tom Brady\'s Tuck/ Gruden\'s Last Game

He got this one right. As awful as that play was, it is so much more than that. This team sucked for years, hire a 32 yo wunderkid who brought an attitude that the fans ate up, and were now a respectable and legitimate NFL playoff team. They lose the AFC championship game the previous year, helped by fat a%% Tony Siragusa breaking Gannon\'s collar bone.

A snowy night in Foxboro, the last game at that crappy stadium. Raiders were dominating that game every which way but the scoreboard. They have A 3RD AND 1 that if converted ices the game. Zack Crockett gets the handoff, on a play that they converted all year long, and get stuffed.

Brady goes back, Woodson clobbers him, Biekert recovers. Then the tuck thing. They continue the drive, Vinatierri makes a kick in a blizzard that he probably makes 1 out of 30 times. We never see the ball in OT. Can\'t remember a more deflating loss in my year\'s of being an A\'s and Raiders fan, other than the game I mentioned above.

Gruden gets traded to Tampa Bay, we get smoked in the Super Bowl the next year (I attended that game, and that is a crazy story in itself), and the franchise goes on a 10 year skid that is mind numbing by its ineptitude in every way.

Side note: Some say this was payback for the 76 playoff game, the one where Sugar Bear Hamilton was called for roughing on 3rd and 18 on the Raiders\' last drive. I was at that game, and I gotta say that was a shaky call for that time.  Today, that gets called for roughing every time.

Yeah, as you can see by the 500 paragraphs, I\'m not over that one either.

3. Darryl Stingley

Jack Tatum was my favorite player.  I loved lots of them, but he and Branch were my guys. (Someone please explain to me how Cliff Branch isn\'t in the HOF).

I was there, and it still bothers me when I think about it. Nuff said.

4. Leaving for Los Angeles

This could have been number 1, but the Top 3 are that awful. The Raiders belong to Oakland, I don\'t care what Ice Cube thinks.  I guess he can be proud of the fact that after leaving Oakland, the thuggery and violence at Raiders games started. My father took me to almost every Raiders game from 1970 to 1979, and what you see today is a far cry from what you saw back then. It was one, big multi cultural family. I had tickets from 1996 to 2007, and gave them up because I got tired of being in that atmosphere.  They have done a great job of improving the game day experience, but moving to LA took the heart and soul out of the loyal fan base.

I never saw 1 game in LA. Couldn\'t bring myself to do it. That was a punch to the gut that I will never forget.

5, 1974 AFC Championship Game

I could have picked from several crushing playoff losses.  The 75 Championship game @ Pittsburgh where they watered the sidelines making it a sheet of ice. The 77 Championship game against Denver, featuring the non-fumble by Lytle after Tatum crushed him at the goal line. Heck, even the Super Bowl where our former coach beat us. Maybe its because I was 10 yo and was there, but this one hurt bad.

This was the week after the \"Sea Of Hands\" game vs Miami, still the greatest game I\'ve ever witnessed live. Beating the defending 2X SB champs. At home against the hated Steelers. This was finally our time, we\'re going to the Super Bowl.

No, we aren\'t.  The Steel Curtain defense stuffed them all day long. Couldn\'t run at all, I think 24 yds rushing or something like that. 24-13 loss that didn\'t feel that close at the time. I left the game heart broken, and while my dad and his friends were eating and drinking after the final game of the season, I just sat with them and sulked.

Its amazing how hard you take losses as a kid.

6. Jamarcus

Ok, he makes the list.

My buddy got us a gig to deal in a charity poker tournament that night at the Playboy Mansion. We watch the selection, leave for the airport. I wasn\'t thrilled, I wanted Calvin Johnson. But hey, I\'m going to the mansion so I talk myself into thinking the pick isn\'t so bad, even though deep down I hated it. The NFL draft was #2 on the list of important things that day.

We all know he sucked and set the franchise back years.

So we get to the mansion. Attendees from what I remember: Don Cheadle, Shannon Elizabeth, Annie Duke, Steve Danneman, Shawn Marion, and other assorted poker pros. Food and drinks lined up everywhere. We were told hands off until later. No problem.

These guys just have sick money.  During a break, the guys at my table told me to put down a flop.  Huh?? \"Paul, put down the flop\".  So I put down a flop. How about the turn and river I ask.  No, just the flop. These guys were betting a dime on the color of the flop, Red or Black.  They did this 6 or 7 times. It was chump change to them. I did get a $20 bill from every hand, so for a gig that I wasn\'t getting paid for I did make over $100. They had wads of cash that would choke even the hungriest of people.

Got a few pictures, Annie Duke was a sweetheart. Shannon Elizabeth acted like I was requesting her to clean the kitchen. Its a picture Shannon, I paid my own way down here, working for nothing, smile and take a freaking picture.  Danneman was awesome.

Bud girls in full body paint.  By this time, my buddy and I had a full stomach and a full buzz on. Visited the grotto, where hot chicks were being groped by famous people. Toured the grounds.

The next day we stayed and went to Hollywood Park for Gold rush Day. Took a beating. We went to the Casino after the races and beat up on the softest 6-12 game ever created. Won $1000 which gave me a profit for the day, paid for expenses.

How did a Raiders post turn into a Playboy Mansion story??  I don\'t have near the talent of Richie, hope I didn\'t put you guys to sleep if you got this far.