Did Royal Delta just run faster than Ghostzapper?

[phil23]

Ok, please let me know if I\'m out of my mind here, or if the calculations are off.

1 - According to Trakus, Wise Dan ran 6021 feet.  Royal Delta ran 6022 feet.  So essentially the same.

2 - According to Trakus, Wise Dan ran 42 more feet than Ron the Greek.  This equates to 4.9 lengths.

2 - If we assume Ron the Greek ran his regular -0.50 (a number he had repeated 3 times, in a row, coming in), that would give Wise Dan a -3.25, which seems quite reasonable.

3 - If we use 1/6sec per beaten length, that means Royal Delta (who ran a second faster than the boys) ran 6 lengths faster than Wise Dan (again, they covered the same amount of distance).

4 - 6 lengths faster than Wise Dan would give Royal Delta a...-6.50!!!

This all assumes of course that Ron the Greek ran his number and that the track/wind didn\'t change from the 7th to the 8th.  These assumptions seem to me at any rate to be pretty reasonable.

Quality Road ran his -7.50 in the Donn
Midnight Lute had a -7.00
Ghostzapper had multiple -6.50\'s.

If we give Royal Delta the 1pt break in the weights she\'d get against the boys, someone needs to run the fastest figure EVER run to beat her.

Unless of course she\'s never the same after this, shall we say, rather taxing effort.

[miff]

Phil,

Did not check your calculations but 6 lengths at the distance is not worth 6 points but about 3 points.

If TG agrees with Beyer she\'ll get a TG of like neg-3


Mike

[phil23]

But if Wise Dan ran -3.25, about 3 points would give her a minus six wouldn\'t it?

Again, I could be missing something.

[miff]

Phil,

Based on the on track performance of Wise Dan and the rest,he could not have run a TG of -3.25.Again,if TG agrees with Beyer,Wise Dan backed up on TG.

Unless the track changed speed from one race to the other,the Wise Dan race clearly shows that group regressed. Surface was dry/cuppy and tiring and the 1.10 change 6f split took it\'s toll on all those anywhere near the front end(last 1/8th in 14.18 confirms that)

The pace in the RD race was substantially slower allowing her to power home outside, the place to be at CD Fri and Sat.Note the runnerup to RD never broke a TG 2.Totally out of hand to think she ran into negative territory if you give RD a TG neg -6ish

Foster winner Ron The Greek,may have been only inside, like on the rail,winner I noticed.

Mike

[phil23]

Mike - thanks.  Good pts.  I completely went off the horses, not the time.  So could def be off.  

Mind you, if we go by time, that seems to indicate that RontheGreek won a G1 running about a 2.5 so there\'s that to consider as well.

I guess we have to wait for our host to crunch the numbers.

[TGJB]

On raw time the 3yo stake went about the same as the Foster, unlikely the 3yo ran negative. If the second filly ran back to her 2 RD will get a huge figure, but not that huge. Still may be the best female figure ever.

[miff]

JB said:

\"Still may be the best female figure ever\"


....re RD,with the formula adjustment for the 7lb weight spot and ground loss,should be a whopper,held late to boot.

[phil23]

I actually messed up by not accounting for the weight spread between Wise Dan and RtG.  That\'s another 0.75 pts, which pushes Royal Delta out to even crazier territory (-7.25).

But as you both mention, the raw times don\'t really point in that direction.

If we go with Afleeting Lady running her 2, then we\'d have:

Margin - she lost by 8 lengths = 4.4pts
Weight - she carried 7lbs less = 1.4pts
Ground - Trakus says she ran 22feet (2.5lengths) less than RD = 1.4 points
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total - 7.20 pts difference from AfL to RD

So that would give Royal Delta a -5.25

Still crazy, but not quite as crazy.

Good discussion.

[plasticman]

She was also in hand in the final yards, could have gone faster if pushed all out.

[jimbo66]

I don\'t know.  To me, you have to discount the performance a little bit.  She had the edge of being a \"bet against\" in the ROTW........

[TGJB]

Underlay. There\'s a difference. The other favorite was a complete bet-against-- she had never run fast enough to win.

Which didn\'t help.