Kentucky Derby - new "point" system for qualification

[sighthound]

Haven\'t seen comment yet on this.   A new PR move by Churchill Downs.  Earnings no longer count.  Points accumulated during runup to Derby (placements in certain races) count.  Races of longer distance, closer to the Derby, count more.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70551/churchill-revamps-derby-qualifying-system

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/triple/derby/story/2012-06-14/kentucky-derby-point-system/55591322/1

http://www.usatoday.com/sports/horses/story/2012-06-14/Kentucky-Derby-points-system-QampA/55600524/1

[richiebee]

The Derby set records this year for attendance and handle, I believe.

I guess the CD credo is \"If it aint broke, lets tinker with it.\"

The new system seems to de-emphasize 2YO racing, which is puzzling to me. Racing
seems to want to have a Triple Crown winner; at the very least the interest in racing
is heightened when there is a Triple Crown possibility.

Now look back at the 1970s. Secretariat, Affirmed, Slew and Spec Bid (not a Triple
Crown winner, but arguably as good as any of the other 3) all had extensive
experience as 2YOs. And 3 of the 4 had very good campaigns as 4YOs.

The new system emphasizes recency, the horses who arrive on the scene late. The
Bodemeisters, the Curlins (brilliant horses) but in my opinion without the 2YO
foundation not viable Triple Crown candidates.

The UAE Derby is a weighted prep but the BC Juvie isn\'t? Get real.

Perhaps more importantly, the wheels are in motion to ban Lasix from the 2015 Ky
Derby. Put the auxiliary gate in storage.


\"The only things which are infinite are the Universe and human stupidity, and I am
not so sure about the Universe.\"

A. Einstein

[sighthound]

Horses unraced as two-year-olds have a higher incidence of breakdown.  Horses raced as two-year-olds build stronger bone.

Don\'t worry - not allowing bleeders to have lasix will fix racing\'s ills.  After all, that worked so well with steroids - look at the difference!

[HP]

There was an article in yesterday\'s New York Times that Kentucky has banned race day administration of lasix.  It was a 7-5 vote in favor.  

HP

[HP]

Sorry, just in stakes races starting 1/1/2014.  

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70530/ky-approves-race-day-salix-ban-battle-looms

[miff]

Kentucky seemingly hell bent on self destructing it\'s racing industry.

1.They need slot money to prevent exodus if NY/surrounding venues continue to receive subsidies from gambling.They vote gambling down, WTF?

2.Banning lasix, as proposed, without Cali, NY,FL following suit can only lead to shorter fields,smaller outfits going broke.They approve the intro of a phased in ban of lasix, WTF?


How does their lasix stance make sense to anyone except those purists with an agenda?


Mike

[sighthound]

Basically, they are using statistical results to try and predict what horses are most likely to break down, and are examining those horses more closely.

An increase in the number of fatal racing injuries in May led Kentucky regulatory veterinarians to devise ways to better identify at-risk horses.

According to statistics compiled by Kentucky Horse Racing Commission equine medical director Dr. May Scollay, there were six catastrophic breakdowns at Churchill Downs in May. There were only three from January through April at Turfway Park and Keeneland.

The vets had a meet to strategize and now "provide deeper scrutiny" of horses when they are entered, including studying past performances, Scollay said. Since the protocol was established in early June, there have been no fatal breakdowns, she said.

Overall, Kentucky has seen a decrease in catastrophic breakdowns in racing since 2007, where there were 40, according to KHRC statistics. There were 36 in 2008, 33 in 2009, 26 in 2010, and 27 in 2011.

Read more on BloodHorse.com: http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/70583/ky-vets-develop-plan-for-at-risk-racehorses#ixzz1xt2g0TfX

[TGJB]

Miff will explain to you why looking at PP\'s can\'t help you figure out who might break down.

[miff]

Why are they bothering, your crystal ball works.You are slipping missing Giant Ryan.Must have been those neg TG figs from last year that finally caused him to go bad!

Also if you read their criteria, your theories are all wet!!

[HP]

Wait a minute.  This proposed rule only covers STAKES horses.  So adding all this up have they determined the STAKES horses are most likely to break down?  Or is it the other way around, where they have determined the STAKES horses are LEAST likely to break down and thus do not need the medication as much?  My crystal ball only shows \"I Love Lucy.\"  

HP

[TGJB]

Miff-- you\'re right, I\'ve been saying I can predict all breakdowns.

I will guarantee my record on this is better than theirs, yours, or anyone else\'s. For the third time, you try it.

[HP]

I don\'t know which horses are most likely to break down, but...if they want to know which horses are MOST LIKELY TO CRUSH EVERY BIT OF LIFE OUT OF WHAT REMAINS IN YOUR SOUL WHEN YOU THINK THEY ARE GOING TO KEY A BIG TRIFECTA AND THEY END UP FINISHING DEAD LAST...

they can save time and money and just follow me to the windows.  

HP

[miff]

Of course you know better than the most knowledgeable vets in the game.They examine and observe the animals,you look at unscientific numbers on a piece of paper.Gonna mention this to Dr.Mary Scollay,maybe she\'ll give you a call if she doesn\'t die from laughter.

[TGJB]

You better have her call the JC then, too, because they have a similar crazy idea.

And you of all people (since you\'re involved with an outfit that buys and races) should know there\'s less than great correlation between vet reports, vet predictions, and what actually happens. Even on those rare occasions you can get a vet to stick their neck out and give you a direct answer.

[miff]

I agree completely because it\'s random assuming a horse goes in sound! Many trainers will tell me that the way a horse moves, hits, plants could make them more prone to injury/breakdown.

Some do, some don\'t.