BC Beyer Comparisons-avg vs 2003

[asfufh]

Hi JB, If you have a similar comparison using TG figs, it would be interesting to see it.
Breeders\' Cup Beyers
RACE 2003 WINNER WINNING BEYER AVERAGE BEYER*
Distaff Adoration 101 108.21
Juvenile Fillies Halfbridled 99 95.93
Mile Six Perfections 105 111.43
Sprint Cajun Beat 120 114.14
F & M Turf Islington 109 108.00
Juvenile Action This Day 92 98.57
Turf High Chaparral 112 112.50
Classic Pleasantly Perfect 119 116.64

* Average winning Beyer Speed Figure from 1990-2003.

[beyerguy]

I did a lot of thinking on these races, and I honestly think Beyer (or whoever made the BC figures) overrated the performances on the dirt by around 4 points.  Curious what others think.  I can\'t see Halfbridled improving to a new Beyer top while being so wide on both turns.  Also, Cajun Beat already moved up 12 points in his last, another 7 point jump is highly unlikely.  And I just don\'t see Pleasantly Perfect running a new lifetime best in his second start off a long layoff with only a modest prep race under his belt.  Did the Juvenile winner really improve from a 79 to a 92, or was it more likely less improvement as the others collapsed.  I think the latter.  The Distaff just stunk!

I could accept one or two of the 4 horses getting the figures they did, but all of them?  Very unlikely, I tend to think as I said earlier they overrated these races.



Post Edited (10-31-03 10:45)

[beyerguy]

So JB,

Its OK to rip one competitor, Rags, constantly, but not another?  I don\'t get it.

[TGJB]

It\'s not about whether you rip him, and Beyer is not the competition-- they sell a low priced product intended for a different marketplace (smaller bettors, not serious big bettors, who are willing to pay for information that at least in theory-- read Ragozin-- is far more accurate). But you were not comparing their figures to ours, anyway-- you were comparing the Beyers from one day to the Beyers for another, assuming a degree of accuracy on the latter. While the Beyers are a decent general guide, we make no such assumption in the universe of this board.

Anyway, it\'s no big deal. And I agree (obviously) that they got some of the day wrong.

Some of Beyer\'s dirt figures looked a little high to me also.  I thnk TGJB said he thought the track speeded up during the day. Maybe that\'s it and Beyer did not catch that.

On the flip side, it is not unusual for some horses to hit their peak on BC day - especially improving 2-3 years olds.

[beyerguy]

JB,

Understood!



Post Edited (10-31-03 14:28)

[HP]

Talking about Beyer, his (pre-race) Breeders Cup analysis was very impressive. HP

>Talking about Beyer, his (pre-race) Breeders Cup analysis was very impressive.<

Yes. He also caught the sprint winner. :-)

IMO, he IS a good handicapper. You just can\'t use his raw figures and expect to have a really good insight into who has been running faster than who.  

NO aspect of the trip (paths, bias, weight, pace etc...) is included in his raw numbers (though he does consider that stuff a bit in actually explaining results and making the variants).

You have to get that information from another source and then know what to do with it. The former is a lot of work and is already available from TG.