BODE huge odds drop

Silver Charm · May 06, 2012, 03:56:42 PM

Why doesnt somebody look into it. DRF, Bloodhorse, FBI. Fpr a sport that is often accused of being rigged, maybe this was another \"Place Lucky Dan\" type story.

I actually bet the horse first thing in the morning on Saturday because I thought it was a ridiculous price at 7-1. So where did this/these bets come from. Not who. Thats none of anyones business. Just identify a couple of.hot spots where $500,000 or more was dumped late and its and end of story.

The wise guys lost....remember.

slewzapper · May 06, 2012, 06:19:49 PM

If you had the advantage of seeing that first fraction, you wouldn\'t play the front-runner to win.

plasticman · May 06, 2012, 06:46:19 PM

People who bet after the start don\'t think that way. They just bet the leader if that horse is clear and take their chances. They know they have a long run winning bet if they get to see the first eighth and just bet any horse who has a clear lead.

JR · May 06, 2012, 06:50:40 PM

How do you know this?

plasticman · May 06, 2012, 10:22:50 PM

Because when the odds drop, it always seems to be the horse who\'s on a clear lead. I just put 2 and 2 together.

plasticman · May 06, 2012, 10:28:22 PM

This is absolutely true, this should be investigated. It shouldnt be hard to figure out where the largest bet came in. Most of the times, the biggest bettors are the smartest bettors....why would you wait till the last second to bet 500k on Bode and get 4-1 when you could drip drab the money in throught the betting cycles and still get your 500k to win and not knock down your own price nearly as much? The betting opened up with 90 mins to post, you could bet 6k every flash till post time and get your money down and that would be a much more efficient entry to the betting pools without \'scalping\' yourself at the end of the cycle.

Unless.....you waited to see the first 10 seconds of the race.

I\'d look into it....but, that\'s just me.

JR · May 06, 2012, 10:35:04 PM

Plastic, I might be dumb but if they drib drabbed 500K in 6K increments over the course of 90 minutes the odds would have drib drabbed down over that time finally arriving at the same payout of 4-1. It doesn\'t matter if it\'s bet a little at a time or all at once. What matters is how much is finally bet on each horse as percentage of the total pool.

Boscar Obarra · May 06, 2012, 11:09:55 PM

Not saying your suspicions aren\'t theoretically valid, but would this be the spot to bet millions at a stinking 4-1?

P-Dub · May 06, 2012, 11:12:39 PM

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Because when the odds drop, it always seems to be
> the horse who\'s on a clear lead. I just put 2 and
> 2 together.

Hopefully some day you will come up with 4.

This statement is simply not true. You only notice because you see the first 4 horses, they are the only horses that have odds posted on the screen. You don\'t notice the horses further back. There are many instances where the odds change for horses farther back in the field.

If you put in a conditional wager for 0 MTP, just when do you think that money enters the pool?? I\'m not saying that it isn\'t possible people may be past posting, pools have been breached before (BC Pk 6), but you don\'t have any evidence people are betting after the race has started.

Many horsed that have this \"suspicious\" odds drop lose. Often. Every day.

plasticman · May 06, 2012, 11:30:35 PM

I love your passion to defend the industry and suggest that all the tote systems are iron clad and cant possibly be infiltrated by even the greatest hackers in the world, but the racing industry that i know is sort of inept and lacks any kind of real leadership......horse racing betting pools arent exactly Scotland yard or fort knox. Im skeptical, the racing industry has given me reason to be that way.

If you have any evidence that the betting pools in the horse racing industry are the only thing that\'s not able to be \'gotten to\' by hackers (not to mention executives who have an \'open window\' for their friends and biggest customers) than i\'d love to listen. Im all ears.

P-Dub · May 06, 2012, 11:42:20 PM

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I love your passion to defend the industry and
> suggest that all the tote systems are iron clad
> and cant possibly be infiltrated by even the
> greatest hackers in the world,

> If you have any evidence that the betting pools in
> the horse racing industry are the only thing
> that\'s not able to be \'gotten to\' by hackers (not
> to mention executives who have an \'open window\'
> for their friends and biggest customers) than i\'d
> love to listen. Im all ears.

Did you skip this part??

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I\'m not saying that it isn\'t possible people may
> be past posting, pools have been breached before
> (BC Pk 6), but you don\'t have any evidence people
> are betting after the race has started.

plasticman · May 06, 2012, 11:55:01 PM

My \'evidence\' would be late odds drops on front runners. The question i was asking you was this. Do you have any evidence that the betting pools are NOT being breached? You seem to think that, for the most part, the industry is void of past posting, what makes you think that?

P-Dub · May 07, 2012, 12:56:47 AM

plasticman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My \'evidence\' would be late odds drops on front
> runners. The question i was asking you was this.
> Do you have any evidence that the betting pools
> are NOT being breached? You seem to think that,
> for the most part, the industry is void of past
> posting, what makes you think that?

There are late odds drops on any number of running styles. You choose to only notice front runners.

Your \"evidence\" is late odds drops on front runners. The counter to that is the large amount of money dumped into the pools at the last moment due to conditional wagering.

Neither of us has any proof that it is or isn\'t happening. I\'m not in a position of authority to do anything about it, so I concentrate on what I can control. Finding winners and cashing tickets.

If it is happening, then those in a position to do something hopefully will. In the meantime, I\'m not going to lose sleep over a conspiracy theory.

FrankD. · May 07, 2012, 04:04:33 AM

Guy\'s,

Grow the F %$# up with this string. Your talking about a 1 1/4 mile race which maybe has had a half dozen coast to coast winners in 138 years not betting the pull on a half mile harness track!

Really,

FD

Silver Charm · May 07, 2012, 08:35:49 AM

Frank could not agree more. Track Security for things like access to various locations (Turf Club, Paddock, etc) was almost Gestapo like. Regardless of who you were with (State Trooper), what you had in your hand (Turf Club walk-around) or what you were asking to do (walk up 15 steps).

Too think that these guys are clueless on what people are doing to them on the outside with Wagers, which is driving the whole operation, and the CREDIBILITY of the entire race is NUTS!!!

Were there probably some slips in the initial years of off-site wagering? I dare say yes. But there isnt anybody dumb enough now to think they could past post $1M on Bode and still think they are going to get paid. And if so it would not be in dollars but days in jail.....