Pace of the KY Derby

[mjellish]

Curious what some may think.  I keep hearing all the talk about the hot pace and all the speed in this year\'s Derby.  Maybe I\'m way off base here, but I just don\'t see it that way.  Trin is the most likely pacesetter on paper.  But I\'ve seen him rate and run 47 to the half in 7F sprints.  He doesn\'t strike me as the type that is going to run off in 45 or 44 and change just because.  In fact, I think Hansen is more likely to try to run off than Trin.  So maybe, and I mean maybe, these two hook up and get locked in a duel.  But the connections are fully aware that it\'s tough to go wire to wire in Louisville at 1 1/4.  I can\'t see them saying, \"Let\'s break on top and try and take this.\"  And they have been training these colts to harness speed.  

The rest of these are all pressers or mid pack stalkers.  Gem, Iha, Cc all can rate.  Even Bode has sat just off the pace and trains as if he can rate.

So I don\'t see how this has to be a fast pace.  I think it will be honest.  And sure, never know when two are going to run off but that doesn\'t mean the 5 right behind them will.  What am I missing here?

[ajkreider]

I have Trinni in front at the first call in his last five.  Only the Aqueduct race went slower than 45.55 for the half - and in that last one, they were running into a strong headwind while making an easy lead with no pressure.  He won\'t be able to relax here. As per the TG pace notes, there is some speed to his inside too - in addition to Hansen outside.  Blinkers off look to have slowed him down, but not that much.  There\'s only so much a jock can do

I expect .46 for the half.  Or, at least I hope so given my bets.

[mjellish]

Hi AJ,

That day at AQ Silverette went 47.59 to the half in a MDSPWT 6.5F.  Next race went 45.96 to the half in a MDSPWT 1M, next race went 46.48 to the half in MDSPWT NY Breds 6.5F, ALWN1X went to the half in 46.89 in a 1M, Broadway\'s Alibi wired the Comely going 47.25 to the half at  1M, and Trinni went 47.41.

What that would seem to say to me is that Trinni went as fast as he had too to get the lead.  So how fast does he have to go in Louisville?  

The answer to me is, he had to go as fast the others make him go.  With HAN being the other main speed, and the connections clearly hoping to get him to slow down early, I just don\'t see it being that fast.  And if HAN is rank and Trinni goes with him, to me that doesn\'t mean the others will go to.  That\'s how I see it anyway.  But I appreciate your thoughts.

[Silver Charm]

I agree with Jellish. I feel like its a Funny Cide type yr where the pace looked fast but it wasnt.

[toppled]

Wow, so far the consensus is not that fast a pace.  Here\'s what I wrote & sent to friends after looking over the pace figures from DRF, agreeing that the pace isn\'t going to be what it\'s being hyped up to be:

Question: What's the biggest myth about this year's Derby?  Answer: The race is jammed with speed like the Oaks and you have to look for closers.  That myth is all because sprinter Trinniberg is expected to wing it on the front end and set a ridiculous pace, but guess what-Trinniberg is a total non-factor in the outcome.  Trinniberg MAY go out there.  If he does, all it means is he'll be racing by himself and they'll just wait for him to come back to them.   He may never see the lead and if that happens Bodemeister could very well find himself on an easy lead like in the Arkansas Derby.  If Trinniberg does the expected and does wing it, the big advantage in this race is to the pace prompters, the horses with natural speed that will swoop down on Trinniberg and then have the race to themselves.  See, the closers will be too far back to mount a serious challenge.  That basically leaves the race winner to 1 of 3 horses-Gemologist, Bodemeister, or Take Charge Indy.  Hansen might be around, but I don't see him making the distance, and if he runs pace figures like his last two, he'll be one of the ones too far back as well.  One of the aforementioned 3 will gut it out to the wire and maybe a horse like Union Rags will get a spot somewhere in the 2-4 range.   Anyone who thinks someone will come from the clouds and win this late like Giacomo in 2005 has reached a different pace conclusion than I have.

[ajkreider]

You may be right.  But if those two do go, I\'m not sure the rest will let them run free.  I\'m trying to think of a hot-paced derby where the second tier was more than three lengths back, and I\'m coming up empty.

[phil23]

Great discussion.  

When Trinniberg first was announced as entering the field, I figured he might be 30:1, based on his good TG figs.  It\'s become apparent that that is not going to be the case.  The public is going to let him go at double that it seems, and perhaps even higher.

I know he\'s never been two turns and that there is other speed.   But if this horse is something crazy like 70:1 (or god forbid even triple digits...although the last few years since MTB, it seem there are no super huge longshots anymore), I\'m going to be making a not insubstantial bet on him.

[sighthound]

A choice between Trinn and Bode, I take Bode every time.  Trinn won\'t make the distance, and no way will he run loose on the lead into the screaming canyon that is the home stretch comfortably all by himself.

Bode will.

[phil23]

Yep, I kind of feel insane even suggesting it.  Just getting freaked out by what his price could be.

[sighthound]

I agree - but hey, $5 win on him could probably cover the $500 you bet on everyone with a better chance

[alm]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Curious what some may think.  I keep hearing all
> the talk about the hot pace and all the speed in
> this year\'s Derby.  Maybe I\'m way off base here,
> but I just don\'t see it that way.  Trin is the
> most likely pacesetter on paper.  But I\'ve seen
> him rate and run 47 to the half in 7F sprints.  He
> doesn\'t strike me as the type that is going to run
> off in 45 or 44 and change just because.  In fact,
> I think Hansen is more likely to try to run off
> than Trin.  So maybe, and I mean maybe, these two
> hook up and get locked in a duel.  But the
> connections are fully aware that it\'s tough to go
> wire to wire in Louisville at 1 1/4.  I can\'t see
> them saying, \"Let\'s break on top and try and take
> this.\"  And they have been training these colts to
> harness speed.  
>
> The rest of these are all pressers or mid pack
> stalkers.  Gem, Iha, Cc all can rate.  Even Bode
> has sat just off the pace and trains as if he can
> rate.
>
> So I don\'t see how this has to be a fast pace.  I
> think it will be honest.  And sure, never know
> when two are going to run off but that doesn\'t
> mean the 5 right behind them will.  What am I
> missing here?


I don\'t think the issue is necessarily how fast they go out, as opposed to WHO goes out.  If Trin is not hustled out of the gate, Mike Smith has to avoid being trapped down inside.  He has to fire if he sees that happening.  If Trin fires, however, Smith may have the option of easing off the rail to track him in the next path.  Two very different scenarios.  

If Hansen gets sent with purpose, which I doubt given what he showed in the Gotham, then both Bode and Trin will be compelled to pick it up in order to avoid getting caught in a bunch.

You may not see a super quick first quarter.  You may be looking at a very fast half mile after that.

[Tavasco]

I believe the pace scenario is: Trinniberg probably runs with the real pacesetters Hansen & Take Charge Indy. Trinniberg is done after 6F and finishes last. What is not so obvious is who is ABLE TO press the pace of Hansen and/or Take Charge Indy. EL Padrino handled TCI when TCI had to go fast in the GP allowance. And of course Union Rags has pressed both Hansen & TCI. Once missing by a head in BC Juvenile and in FL Derby he just never had a chance to run blocked as he was.

Bodemeister success has been the strength of his last fractions but he has never run near as fast or a pressured pace as either TCI or Hansen. If Bodemeister runs with Hansen and TCI he will be an also ran just like them. If Bode can be comfortable coming from 5th or 6th place he has a real chance based on his late speed which is better than most of the so-called closers. But that is iffy because it would be new behaviour lengths behind the pacesetters.

None of the three pace factors(TCI, Hansen, Bode) are dominant enough to shake loose and last. That leaves Union Rags & EL Padrino who will run past the speed. The closers are Daddy Long Legs and Alpha.

However, only one is really bred for the 1 1/4 - Alpha, He joins Union Rags and/or EL Padrino late. Creative Cause is also likely to get the distance and has never run a bad race.

If Hansen and TCI throttle back and choose to press Bode then Bode becomes a contender with Union Rags/EL Padrino.

Gemologist is not fast enough to be in front and doesn\'t have enough late speed to run down those in front of him.

Derby Fever Is Fun!

[P-Dub]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I believe the pace scenario is: Trinniberg
> probably runs with the real pacesetters Hansen &
> Take Charge Indy. Trinniberg is done after 6F and
> finishes last. What is not so obvious is who is
> ABLE TO press the pace of Hansen and/or Take
> Charge Indy. EL Padrino handled TCI when TCI had
> to go fast in the GP allowance. And of course
> Union Rags has pressed both Hansen & TCI. Once
> missing by a head in BC Juvenile and in FL Derby
> he just never had a chance to run blocked as he
> was.
>
> Bodemeister success has been the strength of his
> last fractions but he has never run near as fast
> or a pressured pace as either TCI or Hansen. If
> Bodemeister runs with Hansen and TCI he will be an
> also ran just like them. If Bode can be
> comfortable coming from 5th or 6th place he has a
> real chance based on his late speed which is
> better than most of the so-called closers. But
> that is iffy because it would be new behaviour
> lengths behind the pacesetters.
>
> None of the three pace factors(TCI, Hansen, Bode)
> are dominant enough to shake loose and last. That
> leaves Union Rags & EL Padrino who will run past
> the speed. The closers are Daddy Long Legs and
> Alpha.
>
> However, only one is really bred for the 1 1/4 -
> Alpha, He joins Union Rags and/or EL Padrino late.
> Creative Cause is also likely to get the distance
> and has never run a bad race.
>
> If Hansen and TCI throttle back and choose to
> press Bode then Bode becomes a contender with
> Union Rags/EL Padrino.
>
> Gemologist is not fast enough to be in front and
> doesn\'t have enough late speed to run down those
> in front of him.
>
> Derby Fever Is Fun!

I don\'t see TCI as a need the lead type. Breaking from Post 3, he can break alertly, secure position, and tuck in behind the first flight.  IMO, those would be Triniberg, Hansen, and Bodemeister.  In virtually every race, these 3 horses are either on the lead or pressing the leader.  Hansen and Triniberg have strong pace numbers - at least on the ones I use -  and should be in front of TCI around the first turn.

Yes, they are trying to get some of these to rate. I just don\'t know if you can get some of these young and relatively lightly raced colts, in front of 150K screaming fans, to settle and rate if their natural style is to go to the front.  Hansen and Bode seem, at least to me, as horses that want to be right up front. Triniberg obviously too.

TCI set the pace in the Fla Derby because nobody else wanted it. He has shown an ability to stalk and rate just off the front runners in the past. I see Borel using his natural speed to secure a ground saving trip, making his move around the far turn, and being a major factor down the stretch.

You mentioned pedigree. Who in this race has a better pedigree than TCI?? Several have excellent pedigree, and TCI -  Out of AP Indy and Take Charge Lady - has a pedigree as good as any.  He absolutely has the pedigree to get the trip.

I\'m sure there will be a thread with selections, and will save my final thoughts for it.

[big18741]

Pretty sure Borel is gonna have his horse well positioned and in the right spot no matter what the pace.

How far back off the leaders depends on how fast they\'re going.I wouldn\'t count on him to make a mistake or misjudge the pace in this race.Pencil him in for 1w1w and figure out if TCI is good enough.

I expect an honest to fast pace which to my way of thinking benefits Dullahan the most at the distance.

[mjellish]

TCI can lay down methodical 12 second 1/8ths all day, which is the sign of grade 1 horse, but I don\'t think it\'s a sign of a true front runner.  Plus he\'s already shown, on several occassions, that he is willing to sit off the pace.  Only way I see him up there is if the pace is pretty slow early, say close to 48 to the half.

I think we can count on TCI getting more or less the same ride as Super Saver.  Probably exactly the same ride - out, over, around the turn, wait down the backstretch and don\'t leave the rail unless someone stops in front of him and he absolutely has to.  IMO TCI was the biggest winner of the draw.