Union Rags work

[louisvilleguy1111]

Always been on the fence with Union Rags in the past, with the thinking that he could win the Derby but also wouldn\'t surprise me one bit of he didn\'t run in the top 3 as well. But after his work seeing it in person I would without a doubt say there isn\'t a horse on the grounds right now at Churchill that can beat him in this race. There still is a couple horses in CA (CC and IHA) as well as three horses in FL (GEM,TCI,El Padrino) that I have not seen in person that maybe can step up but the looks of it to me is this is his race to lose and it will ultimately depend on his trip. Oh and Alpha as well but after all his foot/leg issues its not a horse I would wager on in the Derby.

[RICH]

workout aside this comes down to a rags vs thoro on the pattern of this horse, THEY don\'t like him off the PATTERN, we on the other hand, may think he\'s underlaid, but the PATTERN is good, the horse looks ready to move forward, there is nothing wrong with the line, it works. Everything else you read is yours to make a decision, basically if your a real thoro user its a must use somewhere

[ajkreider]

Apparently, Matz had him do a half mile, but he galloped so strong around the turn that the clockers made it 5 furlongs, finishing on the turn.

[analizethis]

The issue isn\'t his pattern or his work. Both are excellent. The question is given what promises to be a wide trip and could be a blocked trip how much faster than everybody else will he have to run? A 3w3w trip (might be the best you can hope for) means he\'ll have to be 4 lengths better than a runner on the rail. Also, given the long striding style I question his agility to avoid horses in front of him who are backing up.Lastly Dixie Union\'s TG record doesn\'t scream 1 1/4 mile and the dam\'s prodigy (as per TG) have been much faster sprinting.

At something around 5 - 1 there is no value in this one given what he up against.

[Perfect Drift]

Why does he have to be four lengths faster than the runner on the rail. You are making an assumption that any rail horse will run a big race.  What if all the speed stops and stalkers/closers all come wide?  What if Rags gets first run and he has the best trip?   Why does he have to be wide?  What if he is the 3-horse and is on the rail on the first turn tucked behind the speed?

TG data is an AVERAGE, therefore, there are horses both above and below... they all don\'t run on the average.  There is not a single thing in any of this horse\'s races that would lead you to believe he can\'t win a 10f race.  

He\'s not up against anything yet, you have created a non-existent worst-cast scenario.

Now, if you tell me he\'s the #20 horse on a sloppy track, that\'s another story.

[gteasy]

I remember Shoemaker\'s ride on Ferdinand...trips are not easy to predict.

[Topcat]

gteasy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I remember Shoemaker\'s ride on Ferdinand...trips
> are not easy to predict.


Both Shoe\'s -- and Charlie\'s -- personal motivations in that Derby were considerable.

[alm]

Topcat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> gteasy Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I remember Shoemaker\'s ride on
> Ferdinand...trips
> > are not easy to predict.
>
>
> Both Shoe\'s -- and Charlie\'s -- personal
> motivations in that Derby were considerable.

What does that mean?  The horse was carrying them; they weren\'t carrying the horse.