My 'Cup picks

[fasteddie]

It\'s that time of year again when I like to make picks after the pre-entries! As follows:

Distaff: Sightseek looks to be a lock with the
big guns on the sidelines.

Fillies: Halfbridled is the logic, FM IS going to take a lot of foolish money, but Hollywood Story may run big at a huge price!

Mile:  Refuse to Bend will love this course!

Sprint: Valid Video runs well off layoffs, and race sets up for him.

F&M Turf: Heat Haze looks like a good fit here, even though Frankel\'s lot is usually over the top on BC day.

Colts:  Tiger Hunt, because I have Eurosilver  in the Derby futures!

Turf:  High Chaparral to repeat.

Classic: What was shaping up as the race of the year a month ago now is just OK. It\'s Congaree\'s to lose, and if he does, Hold that Tiger!

[jbelfior]

Fast Eddie--


Pretty interesting selections. Although still a maiden, HOLLYWOOD STORY has a healthy pattern and perhaps is sitting on a much improved effort. Hopefully she draws well because I think she can hit the board at a huge price.

Juvenile Colts is wide open.

VALID VIDEO certainly a contender with his pattern. There\'s a lot of horses in the Sprint that you can eliminate just by going through the Thoros.

I\'m leery about supporting the Euros with all of the hot weather in So. Cal this week.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

>Classic: What was shaping up as the race of the year a month ago now is just OK. It\'s Congaree\'s to lose, and if he does, Hold that Tiger!<

My theory is that in 10 furlong races that are very deep in quality like the BC, KY Derby etc... stamina is often more important. In most cases, if you want to win a race that deep in talent you have to either \"resist or offer\" several challenges to other horses of significant ability - more often than in less competitive stakes at 10F. Congaree has always been suspect at 10 furlongs. His last win at 10F came under ideal conditions on a track that many felt favored the inside - which is where he was for much of the race.  He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.

[Silver Charm]

Classhandicapper,

Didn\'t you see where Baffert guaranteed a win?

You mean you don\'t believe him?

>Didn\'t you see where Baffert guaranteed a win? You mean you don\'t believe him?<

LOL. :-)

Didn\'t he guarantee a Triple Crown or two?

:-)

I make him a major contender. I can see the same fast speed figures everyone else sees. Not much value in that though. I consider him somewhat suspect at 10F because I have yet to see him get it under anything less than perfect conditions - which was the case a few back - and which probably won\'t be the case here. So unless I am getting compensated for that question mark, I\'d rather have one of the other contenders - all else being equal. Truthfully, I expect him to get bet less than some of the other contenders. So the odds might be reasonable if not attractive.

[Silver Charm]

Classhandicapper wrote:

\"He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.\"


My friends this is as good as it gets.

[fasteddie]

Joe B:

Just read after I posted about the hot weather out west!! Will have to rethink the Euros; reminds me of GP some years back when
it was raging hot and they were up the track.
Colts is wide-open, but i\'m not sold on Cuvee. One turn NY horses usually flop out west.I still like \'Tiger in the classic as he
had time to acclimate and likes the dirt, but
he is going 2 turns (American-style) for the first time.

[jbelfior]

FastEddie---

I agree with your thoughts on CUVEE, especially at low odds. After two huge performance numbers, where does he go from here? I guess TGB can shed some thought on that question in his seminar.

You\'ll certainly get a nice price on \'Tiger in the Classic.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[fasteddie]

Heat wave breaks on Friday; high of 77 on Sat.

[Upper Nile]

Anyone else in addition to bdhsheets and myself giving Dynever some serious consideration?  Could you ask for a better pattern of development?  Starts out with a 5 first out in Feb. Real nice and not so fast as to hurt.  Moves forward 1 1/2 points going 2 turns for the 1st time and continues to move forward nicely in his next.  Perhaps reacted to the new top but only slightly and pairs-up in his next 2 races. Is given 2 months off and comes back with a new top while continuing to move forward gradually. Then another gradual move forward to yet another new top down to a 1 1/2 at Phil in a race thoro-graph notes with a ! for a buried fast race.  Then first out against older horses another real nice move forward down to a negative 1 3/4.  Nothing indicates Dynever will not continue to develop and run another new top on Saturday is there?  If this is not value what is.  I\'m going to guess and say Jerry Brown will include Dynever as a contender and a live long shot in his seminar.

[Michael D.]

re cuvee:

doesn\'t he remind you of dehere. a monster sprint or two in the slop, then a nice one turn middle distance race at belmont (just off memory here, could be off a bit). dehere then went to the BC that year (also at SA) and flopped as one of the shortest priced favorites in history.

>>\"He\'s been terrific all year, but he is likely to get his stamina tested with MOD there early and a whole slew of other taking shots at both of them mid race and then late. I would need a decent price on Congaree. Couldn\'t take him short.\"


My friends this is as good as it gets.<<

The one thing that would negate that of course would be if Santa Anita was carrying speed especially well that day. THen it would be less of an issue :-)

I read Dynever differently in the specifics, but in the same general way.

He is improving and is not that far off the best horses right now.

As you probably know, I and several other speed figure makers think his WV Derby was better than a 2. More like a -1 or -2.

So when he ran in a 1 1/2 in the mud, I think he was not as sharp, but who cares. It was mud. Therefore, it should be excused or suspect regardless.

I think his Med Cup is actually a tad better than it looks. The pace for that race was slow and he moved into the hottest part while wide before flattening out. I would like him better if he earned those figures against the best of the division, but then he wouldn\'t be as long a price. IMO he is live - definitely for the exotics at least.

I would need a price to get involved.

[Michael D.]

classh,
what price would you need?

[Michael D.]

classh,
At what odds do you consider yourself being adequately \"compensated\"?