Gary Stevens' "Analysis"

[Dana666]

I watched the NBC telecast, and I\'m truly amazed with Gary Stevens\' assessment of the great talent of Joel Rosario. Now, I\'ll say the kid has physical skills and good hands, no question, but if he rides 50,000 races in his career, he won\'t have saved ground in one of them--not one. I\'d venture to say his percentage of getting beat on odds-on favorites might be the highest ever in the sport\'s history. In the SA Derby, for example, he\'s on the inside mind you, and he\'s 10 feet off the rail around the first turn! How much did he lose by, a head? He can\'t even save ground when he\'s on the rail! They said he went to a jockey school at some point in his career--seriously, a school? The simplest most fundamental concept in racing, the same one that probably made Jerry Brown a millionaire, Rosario doesn\'t get the simplest concept--the shortest distance between two points crap. How any trainer or owner can ever ride this guy is a mystery to me. And they priase him. If he rode in New York, his win percentage would be less than 10%. If any decent jock from New York rode the horses Rosario rides in CA, his batting average would be about .600 No joke. I don\'t wish the kid any harm, please don\'t misunderstand me, but to priase this kid as one of th best riders in the country is an absolute joke. Is Stevens\' just being policitcally correct or trying to say something nice about the sport or can he be that clueless as you guys like to say?

On a brighter note, Gemologist continues to impress me. A true man among boys. I\'ll go out on a limb right now to say he\'ll be one we will remember for a long time. Not only is he a physical brute, mentally, he\'s unreal. I thought Dominguez was going right past, and Gemologist took one look at the other horse and took off. Now the only trick will be finding a way to make any money on a 4-5 shot in the Derby; I know what you all are thinking, \"bet against him, genius!\" So many things can go wrong in that race, so the odds are always in your favor, but this colt is the real deal. I couldn\'t be more enthusiastic about a possible triple cown after all these years.

OK venting over.

[Dana666]

A triple cown and a triple crown too!

[miff]

\"Now the only trick will be finding a way to make any money on a 4-5 shot in the Derby\"


Dana,

I\'ll quit gambling if Gemologist is 4-5 in the Derby, not a remote possibility!

Rosario a bum?? Wow!


Mike

[Dana666]

I don\'t personally he\'s a bum though! You have to see the overhead blimp shot of SA derby to really see my point with creative cause.

Well, what\'s Gemologist going to be? I can\'t gauge these kinds of things. He\'s the favorite right? You don\'t see him as odds on? Undefeated? Pletcher?  What would be your guess? If he is anywhere near 3-1, I\'ll probably make the biggest bet of my life in the race. I just watched all his races again to make sure I\'m not hallunciating (wouldn\'t be the first time). Check out his pedigree: http://truenicks.com/free-reports/hypothetical-mating/display?stallionReferenceNumber=4322623&mareReferenceNumber=1445307&mareName=Crystal%20Shard

[phil23]

Rags will probably still go favoured, around 9/2.  Gem 2nd choice between 5 and 6 to one would be my guess.

[Dana666]

Well, I hope you\'re right. 6-1??? That would make my year. I can\'t even imagine that. I keep thinking about 5 horse fields in CA, but with 20 horses maybe you guys are correct.

[P-Dub]

Gemologist will go favored. He\'s undefeated, people like that kind of thing.

He\'ll be around 3/1 or 7/2. Union rags 2nd choice around 5/1.

[alm]

Can\'t comment on Rosario...it\'s hard for me to watch or bet on what goes on out there.  But that\'s what I\'ll be doing today, as they are God-less there and at Hallandale Beach (joke.)  Gotta comment on Stevens: I wouldn\'t give you Gary if you stuffed 10 Joels in my pocket.  Gimme a break big guy.

I will also comment on Creative Cause who appeared to me to be giving it up down the lane yesterday.  Admittedly one can\'t rely on a visual reference as much as one would like in this sport, but Drug O\'Neill\'s winner didn\'t seem to be accelerating to me...CC seemed to be quitting.  And even if he had the ground loss you\'ve pointed out, he had a good trip.  He\'s a suspect customer.

The opposite was true in the Wood.  The winner surged when he saw the other horse and the other horse seemed to hang in the last 100 yards.  Going to the Fla Derby, the winner had the right tactic and a glib track...still, Union Rags fought the bias and the extraordinarily bad trip....contender.

And my eyes are probably deceiving me.

Mike (Miff) thinks this is an ordinary or slow group.  He may be right....so far.  He\'s a smart guy, but my point is that it is too early to tell.  Didn\'t some of the top trainers learn not to squeeze the lemon a few years back (TAP and others)?  As noted in this blog, UR was not cranked in Florida.  Gem was on a light schedule, but not because of injury.  Maybe there is another out there that hasn\'t been asked for its best yet.  

I don\'t think we will know how good they are until later this year.

[Dana666]

I wasn\'t totally sure what you meant, but as a jockey I loved Stevens. Made many big hits with him over the years. He\'s a good actor, too, but I didn\'t understand how he could make such an observatipn about Rosario. I was commenting as someone who has watched Rosario on a daily basis and would see him make the same mistakes over and over--look, regarding the SA derby what I pointed out is a minor thing, but I do think it could have made the difference in winning and losing. From about the middle of the first turn onto the back straight he inexplicably lets CC drift well off the rail. He only moved toward the rail when another horse tried to run up inside him before the final turn--why does he give up that ground when he doesn\'t have to? I don\'t think any California horses are making an noise this year in triple crown races, just my opinion. You\'re right, you won\'t know for a while though. I just saw Gemologist\'s line on the redboard, and I\'m guessing sheet players won\'t be too enthused beacuse so far he hasn\'t been that fast. So perhaps he won\'t be as low as I was thinking. I loved the way TAP has handled him and he should have a ton left on Derby day. I would he think he\'s got a lot of room left to improve, Tiznow\'s improve with age, and if that is the case, I don\'t see who\'s beating him if he comes up to the race without any issues. That\'s always a big if though.

[Wrongly]

Completely agree Phil 4/5 on Gemologist is absurd.  He\'s no where near a Big Brown, Street Sense or Barbaro.  This year we have FOY winner Union Rags, Juvy Champ and Gotham winner Hansen, Fl Derby winner Take Charge Indy, SA Derby winner I\'ll Have Another and San Feilpe winner Creative Cause and maybe the Secret Circle is he where to win the ARK Derby.  Much more likely that the favorite could be 7/2 with a bunch around 8-10/1.

I\'m also surprised that the gushing is contained to Gemologist and no love for Alpha.  McLaughlin is a KILLER 2nd off the layoff!

[ajkreider]

If Dullahan wins by open lengths in the BG, he will be in the mid singles as well.

[big18741]

Dullahan worked 57.40 this morning at Keeneland.

Despite working fast he might be short for the Bluegrass.Missed some time after the Palm Beach stakes but if he does jog on Saturday he\'s gonna take money in the Derby.

[albany]

Guess I have a differeent take on the race.

Gemologist was nicely placed tracking a moderate pace. He picked up the bit after being rigorously urged on the turn, got to the lead and held well to secure the win. His race was a good one.

Contrary to Gemologist\'s run, Alpha experienced difficulty as he was steadied along the rail on the first turn and was forced to move a bit early to get position after his misfortune. Alpha made a good run given his problems and a layoff since February 4th.

If Gemologist had to overcome the problems experienced by Alpha and the latter had the conditioning edge and trip Gemologist enjoyed,  would the order of finish been the same?

[Dana666]

That\'s what makes the game great! Two people can look and see different races entirely. I though Gem was basically hand urged (he did fall asleep and need to be woken up at the 1/16th pole) and pulling away again at the end the longer they went! Not saying Alpha is not a nice horse, which only makes Gem\'s effort more impressive. Seems to me they haven\'t gotten close to the bottom of Gem which is what I\'m looking at, plus he\'s bred to run all day, and he\'s 2/2 at CD downs. I also love Mr Prospectors in almost any capacity! Physically he has a chest like king kong--amazing to watch him when he gets cranked up. Now with everyone telling me I\'ll get 4 or 5 to 1, what\'s not to like? I was curious to see Gem\'s mental state when he actually had to do something, and I love that he would not let the other colt by--that\'s the toughness I was hoping for.  As I said the man among boys metaphor really applies here. The TAP haters will not be happy, but I don\'t hate him. In fact, I love that whenever a TAP horse shows up on any track in any race, he\'s always ready to run and always in the right spot. And most of the time they run huge off layoffs which to me is the mark of an outfit that knows what it\'s doing--bet Owen Harty or Dick Mandella off a layoff, then go look for your tickets in the trash afterwards.

All this is just talk though.  Four weeks out is a long time. I won\'t cry if he loses on May 5. I haven\'t felt this strongly about a derby horse since Silver Charm--the last winner I had by the way, not counting Animal Kingdom whom I liked but did not make it to the track that day (long story). I seldom feel this strongly, but when I do my strike rate is very high, so I\'m going to enjoy the ride for once. I don\'t really care what anyone else thinks--we will be proven right or wrong on derby day. I can live with that.