Fla Derby Pace Scenario

[Mall]

I understand the overall case for Take Charge Indy who, after scratching out of the Tampa Bay Derby, may very well have to win today to guarantee a spot in the big race. With Calvin up, it seems likely on paper that TCI should get to the rail, but I'll be very surprised if TCI is on the lead early since, as the explanation with race shapes points out, one of the biggest difficulties in trying to project how much speed a particular horse is likely to show is that it often depends on tactical decisions by the jockey. My best guess is that based on what happened the last time he rode the horse, Calvin may very well conclude that he moved too soon, and I'm therefore thinking it's more likely, with the change of equipment, that Reveron or one of the longshots which have actually been on the lead at the end of the first quarter will be in front early.

It's also interesting to note that although there was only horse ahead of TCI early in his last race, a 24-1 shot that ended up losing by more than 27 lengths, TCI was nonetheless three wide around the first turn. Putting that information together with how TCI ran when he broke from the one hole and was forced to run on the rail in his CD race has me wondering if perhaps TCI is the kind of horse which does not necessarily like being inside of other horses.

My bottom line is that it all adds up to an awful lot of open questions for a horse which is only 5-1 on the ML, and will probably go off lower than that.

[P-Dub]

Great ride by Borel.

Excellent analysis and a  nice 7/1 winner.  Well done, Thank You.

[aceriley63]

Yes, thanks for that ROTW, nice payout on the trifecta, too

[Mall]

From someone who couldn\'t have been more wrong about the odds or how the early pace would play out, Tg\'s analysis certainly was excellent from start to finish. With the slow fractions, for most of the race I really thought Reveron, when he didn\'t get the lead, was going to get first jump and light up the toteboard.

While the place price helped, being too stubborn to even use TCI when I saw the exacta paid $250 seemed exceptionally stupidly in retrospect.

[P-Dub]

Mall Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> From someone who couldn\'t have been more wrong
> about the odds or how the early pace would play
> out, Tg\'s analysis certainly was excellent from
> start to finish. With the slow fractions, for most
> of the race I really thought Reveron, when he
> didn\'t get the lead, was going to get first jump
> and light up the toteboard.
>
> While the place price helped, being too stubborn
> to even use TCI when I saw the exacta paid $250
> seemed exceptionally stupidly in retrospect.


We\'ve all been there, don\'t beat yourself up too much.  That exacta was a very nice bonus though.