G-Men

[big18741]

MGM Mirage opened at -3.5 +100

Now showing a NE -2.5 -105

[Topcat]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth
>
> If you hurry 5 Dimes & Bet on Line are -2.5 right
> now off shore.
>
> You\'ll never see Vegas expose itself to another
> Super Bowl middle; last one was the disastrous
> 1979 Steelers & Cowboy\'s at 4.5 & 3.5 and we know
> where that one landed.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.


The oh-so-appropriate Super Bowl XIII --  13 . . .

[Topcat]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Monmouth
>
> If you hurry 5 Dimes & Bet on Line are -2.5 right
> now off shore.
>
> You\'ll never see Vegas expose itself to another
> Super Bowl middle; last one was the disastrous
> 1979 Steelers & Cowboy\'s at 4.5 & 3.5 and we know
> where that one landed.
>
> Good luck,
>
> Frank D.


Strange things happen.

In Rams/Titans, -7 was painted on the board in Vegas on game day.  I know -- I was there.

A handful of aggressive offshores were hanging Rams -6 1/2.  

I remain grateful, though I know I was fortunate.

[FrankD.]

Big,

I\'m sure the Mirage is just balancing an early Giant suitcase as they and Wynn opened at 3.5 the rest of the street has been glued to 3. A mere crumb of what will come in next weekend.

In 1979 the floodgates opened up on the Steelers early driving the line from 3.5 up to 4.5 everywhere then the Cowboy suitcases on game day pushed it back to 3.5 and all jumped back in. Nearly every house got clocked for millions on that middle. A piece of Vegas folklore for sure!

FD

[plasticman]

Remember, the better team is getting points here...so, this game might get down to -2 or even less, i\'m not sure what \'handicapping angle\' you would use to wager on New England. Its certainly not strength of schedule, its certainly not recent past history (eli owns brady as of recent times) and it certainly can\'t give you confidence that an all time Great Pats team couldnt seal the deal during the undefeated run when they had a much better team (than they do now). It cant be the fact that Brady seems \'not right\' after his most recent performance either.

[Silver Charm]

FrankD. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Big,
>
> I\'m sure the Mirage is just balancing an early
> Giant suitcase as they and Wynn opened at 3.5 the
> rest of the street has been glued to 3. A mere
> crumb of what will come in next weekend.
>
> In 1979 the floodgates opened up on the Steelers
> early driving the line from 3.5 up to 4.5
> everywhere then the Cowboy suitcases on game day
> pushed it back to 3.5 and all jumped back in.
> Nearly every house got clocked for millions on
> that middle. A piece of Vegas folklore for sure!
>
> FD

Great story. Texas Suitcases?? Never dreamed of such a thing!!

[aceriley63]

All this football talk points out to me how hopeless horse betting has apparently become. Even with an \"edge\" like the TG sheets, the takeout is so hard to overcome it seems the smart money is going for the lower takeout of Vegas NFL betting.  If they\'d adjust the takeout to half the current amount, we could have much more fun, process more money through the system and increase the total take for the gov\'t.  They don\'t think that way especially the guy in charge now.

[miff]

While it has been suggested that lowering the takeout would create more handle, it\'s not a slam dunk.When experimental lowering of the takeout takes place, there is an initial increase in handle which has shown to be unsustainable.The present economy may be somewhat to blame.

When the consultants were trying to establish a fair market value for purchasing NYC OTB/NYRA Franchise, there were several scenario\'s related to reduced takeout. Potential buyers searched for ways to project sustained long term handle growth via reduced takeout. None of the final models projected sustained growth and this became one of the main reasons that the buyers disappeared.Buyers were not prepared to subsidize racing which the politicians insisted on(see present/past NYRA)One scenario did suggest that a substantial permanent reduction in takeout was a possible way to sustain handle growth(current economy still 800 lb gorilla in the room)

The Clueless Clowns presently operate under a broken business model and do not have the wherewithal to deal with the very complex issues which racing now faces.Racing has a shot to survive/thrive with contraction, consolidation and an infusion Casino mentality type execs who understand that the player is the lifeblood of it\'s business. The Clueless Clowns don\'t get that.


Mike

[Lost Cause]

If they could not sustain racing while it was the only legal game in town how are they going to survive with all the competition now?  If I were a newbie I would not be drawn to racing at all, it is one hard corrupt game to understand when I can just go to the casino and throw in a few plays without much thought/training.  How do you continue without new blood?  I hate to say it but this sport we love so much will be a goner in the US at some point even with all the contraction and lowered takeout and drug cleanup.  We will all be betting on races from overseas at some point if they take away the subsidies.  

Sometimes our judgment gets clouded when it comes to the things we love..If racing were a stock I would be selling.

[P-Dub]

May as well start up the Super Bowl thread again.

I\'ve read a lot of comments about the better team being favored, its NYG or nothing, how can anyone bet on the Patriots. Can we put a stop to the phrase \"wrong side favored\"??

I\'m on New England. I\'ll lay the 2.5.  Here are my reasons.

First, the Giants are getting way too much credit for their recent winning streak. Are they playing well?? Absolutely. They can run the ball, Manning is playing well.  They pressure the passer. No doubt, they are playing well and deserve to be here. Its been mentioned that NE hasn\'t really beaten anyone this year.  Who exactly has NYG defeated??

- I see the win at NE, impressive win that could have gone either way.  Eli made the plays down the stretch, full credit.
- Next week a loss to SF, tough spot traveling across country after a road win. They won the stat sheet but lost the game.
- 3 more losses, including a last minute loss to GB. So 4 losses in a row.
- They won at Dallas where the Cowboys gift wrapped the game to them. Down 12 with 5 minutes or so left, Dallas imploded. But, NYG made the plays to win.  I wouldn\'t say beating this Dallas team is that impressive.
- Get whipped at home vs Washington.
- Beat an overrated Jets team, Sanchez isn\'t good.
- Beat the same overrated Dallas team to make the playoffs.

Where are the impressive wins?? Playoffs:

- Beat an Atlanta team that played 11 games indoors this year. They struggle outdoors, have a slightly above avg offense on their best days, and were awful vs NYG. Solid win for NYG, but seriously, Atlanta isn\'t all that.

- Beat a GB team that was out of sync, rusty from a 3 week layoff, had injury issues to their OL and Jennings. They played well, beat the team that was out there.  Its not their fault GB had issues, solid performance but circumstances were made to order for them.

- Beat SF, thanks to 2 fumbled punts.  They were shut out in the second half without them, and you can talk about a slow field all day. I\'m not buying it. NY would not have crushed SF on a fast track. What, NY is some offensive juggernaut that would have walked all over one of the top defenses in the league?? Ridiculous.

They deserve to be here. Very resilient team. Not seeing how they are the better team and should be favored.

Belichick has 2 weeks to prepare for this game. Lately, their defense has been playing better than their season long rankings. They\'ve switched to a 3-4, are using different fronts, confusing blocking schemes.  They have trouble pressuring the QB at times, but Belichick will devise schemes and blitz packages to bother Manning. He was bothered by the SF blitz and I feel Belichick will come up with multiple packages to confuse Manning. NY will get their share of points, but it won\'t be as easy as some think it will.

NE has been beaten the last 2 times they\'ve played. Again, I think that with 2 weeks to prepare they will find a way to neutralize the NYG rush to a degree. It could involve chipping with a back or TE, screen passes, etc.. There is a reason that the team that lost the first game wins the re-match.  The winning team doesn\'t change, if it aint broke why fix it?  The losing team makes adjustments, comes up with new ideas and schemes to counter what was unsuccessful the first time.

Every team has motivation at this point. Its the Super Bowl. NY ruined immortality for NE 4 years ago, have beaten them this year, and are running their mouths ad nauseum al week.  NE has the inspiring story of the late Mrs. Craft.  Some how, some way NE gets it done.

I think Brady has a big game.  Its on a fast track, and the NE receivers will catch plenty of passes.  Gronkowski will get taped up, shot up, and make plays.  I see a game with plenty of scoring, and see NE scoring more than NYG. Wouldn\'t be surprised to see NE up 14 at some point in the second half. Patriots 37 - NYG 30.

I hope you all enjoy the game and have a great time with friends eating, drinking, and gambling.

[plasticman]

Great writeup, i disagree with a lot of it, but hey, that\'s what makes it fun, differing points of view.

I\'ll play devils advocate with your comments if you don\'t mind.

I think you\'re reaching with the \'who have the Giants beat\' because they won road games vs the two best teams in the NFC, regardless of how they won. they found a way with guts,heart and tenacity. They\'re battle tested, while New England is not.

The Pats road to this game couldnt have laid out any better for them, weakest schedule of all time, a free win vs a Bronco team who never showed up mentally and a lucky win vs Balto and Joe Flacco. You could make the comments that NYG \'got lucky\' to win at SF because of turnovers, but if you do that, you have to talk about New England\'s one tenth of a second away from not even surviving an offensively challenged Raven team AT HOME no less.

If you\'re going to find a way to bet the Pats in this game, i think the biggest advantage they have is that NOBODY is giving them a chance. I havent heard one person make a logical case why they even have a shot, so, you know Belichick will use that \'slight\' to his advantage.

As far as two weeks to prepare, that doesnt mean much to me because the Giants also have 2 weeks to prepare.

Its funny how one of the biggest reasons that you would lean towards the Pats in this game is because of Belichick, but Belichick is the reason that this team is here to begin with...he\'s used smoke and mirrors to get this team to this point, he\'s using guys off the street to play DB and he\'s doing stuff with this team that would make David Copperfield proud.

The only way the Giants get beat in this game  is if they underachieve and just dont bring the same intensity that they\'ve brought in their last 5 games. The Giants have been on a mission and they are \'road\' tested. Even though this is a \'neutral\' field, its really like a road game for both teams and the Giants are PHENOMINAL on the road and completely tested by facing two very tough road crowds in GB and SF, two very tough places to play. New England hasnt had any of that \'test\' yet.

This could also be a pro-Giants crowd, even 60-40 or more....with the rivalry between Indy and New England, i can\'t imagine any person who\'s a Colts fan is rooting for Tom Brady, they\'ll be rooting for Peyton\'s little bro.

The one thing the Giants are doing wrong is chirping like they are the favorites. You don\'t want to be the favorites in this game, you want to be the team \'nobody is giving a chance\' to and yet the Giants arent embracing that the Pats are the actual betting favorite in Vegas.


All the angles aside, the way i view this game is that you either bet the Giants or you skip the game....the Giants have better players at most key positions, the Pats have shown to be \'chokers\' in recent years and their best offensive player has a broken ankle (For the most part).

If you bet N.E. and lay the points, you\'re pretty much betting on Belichick undressing Coughlin...and that didnt happen in 2008, so i\'m not sure why it would happen for the Patriots now, with a much worse team than they had 4 years ago.

[P-Dub]

Don\'t mind at all.  You\'re entitled to your opinion and I like reading what others are thinking.  I also disagree with some of your assessments, but I don\'t want this to turn into a back and forth.

We\'ve both stated our opinions. Enjoy the game.

[plasticman]

Thanks, you too, no need for a back and forth, we both stated our opinion, i respect what you wrote, its good stuff, have a good weekend, enjoy the game also!

[richiebee]

Full Disclosure:

1) I am a Jets fan who is still waiting for Rex Ryan to shut his mouth and
coach the damn team.

2) I will not bet a single dollar on this game. Will always prefer betting
crooked trainers and bulimic jockeys rather than placekickers and zebras.

That being said, this game has been overhyped and overanalyzed in my two go to
media sources, NY Post and NY Times. I mean enough already. Victor Cruz is a
nice local boy made good story, but he ain\'t Jerry Rice, who played in an era
when defensive backs were actually allowed to play defense.

That being said, my two hopes for the game are that A) Madonna somehow
embarrasses herself at halftime and B) Cruz gets his bell rung, goes into the
Patriots defensive huddle, and starts doing his salsa dance.

So I\'ll watch the game, but will be more interested to see if \"Luck\" can
improve on what to me was a mediocre first out.

My favorite line about the Super Bowl comes from Dan Jenkins\' \"Semi- Tough\".
To paraphrase: No matter what happens Sunday night, there are millions of
people in China and India who don\'t give a f--k.

[FrankD.]

Richie,

I hadn\'t realized that we are brothers in futility as long suffering Jet fans.
It makes it tough when your teams only shinning moment came when you were 10 years old!!!!!

My Super Bowl opinion is I have a plethora of 2,8 & 5\'s in the many pools I\'m in, the wings will be hot and the beer cold, some entertaining commercials and my girl Madonna has a Janet Jackson moment. By the way Miss M. and I share the same birthday and she looks a bit better at 53 than I.

As for wagering? OVER,OVER,OVER,OVER,OVER

Good luck and a happy Super Bowl to all,

Frank D.