Strike that Notion

[Silver Charm]

I thought Great Notion would have been a good sleeper play in the Breeders Cup Sprint, but then I looked at tomorrows entries at Keeneland and there his name was, tackling older horses like Beaus Town among others. If he were to run in the Sprint it would be back on three weeks rest after a cross country ship, not for me.

This horse seemed like he could be the speed of the speed, if you saw his race in the King Bishop you know what I mean. One thing that is missing this year in the Sprint is the super fast filly like we have seen in the past. At least ten of the Cup Sprints have had the following five fillies run twice each: Pine Tree Lane, Very Subtle, Safely Kept, Meafara and Xtra Heat. What's the significance?

They could all out break the colts and get to the top first.  

Don't see it this year so this would have been a great spot for Great Notion but not if he runs tomorrow. An interesting side note to this horse is he was the topic of a post on this Board: "No Works No Problem" last November. Seems when he made his first career start at CD he ran with no published works, won and paid $40.00.

I see where Bob Baffert is touting Congaree for the Classic so with him out of the Sprint this race is wide open.

[bdhsheets]

Shake You Down is this years Orientate. He just keeps cranking -2\'s [one slop clunker] and lower. Only Aldebaran is in the same league [don\'t know about Yankee Gent\'s latest]

Fig wise Great Notion is a great bet against at 2-1. He hasn\'t gotten past his earlier top of 2.0 and most in the race are faster. No doubt if Keene is the ES rail superhighway as it has a tendency to be, who knows? Pace figs might dominate?

Aside from your point about early speed, I think the spread between the top filly sprinters and top colt sprinters is less than the spread between them at routes even when they are both mature. (especially when they stretch to 10 furlongs or beyond on dirt) That\'s another reason the fillies you mentioned did fairly well in the sprint.

Great Notion has a lot of early speed, but he is NOT very good out of the gate. Believe me, I know. I bet him in the King\'s Bishop and I think he would have won had he gotten out the gate perfectly. He also didn\'t get out well in the prep for the King\'s Bishop.

Personally, as discussed prior, due to pace, wind etc... I think EVEYONE\'S speed figure for the King\'s Bishop is suspect. That was a very strong group of 3yo sprinters and the way they have been running coming out of that race verifies the point I have been making about that field.

[jbelfior]

All very good points on the subject of the BC sprint. I had MEAFARA both times without hitting the exacta. No MEAFARAs or SAFELY KEPTs this year. A friend of mine plays Santa Anita and is familiar with the track nuances.He says that 6f stake races at Santa Anita are more likely to be won by the classy \"power\" sprinter who would excel up to a mile. A horse like GULCH or AFLEET or GRAND SLAM come to mind. He says that pure 6f horses, regardless of how fast they are early, will probably get run down. Any thoughts from those familiar with SA???


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Great point Joe B.

I think CARDMANIA fits in that Power Sprinter mold you bring up and I did hit that Cardmania/Meafara exacta pretty good.

Would be curious to hear from some SA guys myself.

Keep up the good posts.