Well...

[plasticman]

Rick, Thanks for clearing that up, i just felt that your position was \"someone made a good bet and/or a good score, leave it alone\" and if that wasnt your intention, my apologies.

I think what makes this look fishy (to me) is that who bets a large DD into a small pool with two bombs? Who does that? If you have any kind of brains, you arent going to destroy your own price into a little pool when the win pool and pick 3 pools are more than twice as big. It makes no sense that someone would bet in that fashion, i think that\'s why the red flag went up.

[richiebee]

Rick:

You are forgetting to include my favorite new conspiracy theory: that the
Drone which was grounded by Iran is actually a Trojan Horse.

[miff]

App 12 Billion being wagered in the US annually. You would think that the players would receive some indication that the pools are always pure.Not too much to ask.

Mike

[Breakage]

Unless one is named Dana, Peter, Zjelko or the guy from Elite who\'s name just flew out of my head- they are not betting $200million,
sorry Mike is not betting $200million-that is comical as hell.

and none of those people are holding 7%.


I do get it though.

With the price of your product being astronomical,
it is important to broadcast ludicrous hold numbers so the cost seems relatively inexpensive. The reality is at 1% which is reality, the first $2500 or whatever a Tgraph customer bets-the profits go to pay you.

Afterall the only people that care about hold percentages and win/loss records are touts. The rest of us care about maximizing the bottom line which means teeny hold.

Have a happy holiday, at some point early next year,
I will have a list of the 100best figs since the advent of fake dirt,
and i am going to query why it is that 95% of them are on dirt.

[TGJB]

Breakage--Don\'t know who Mike is, Peter is the guy I was talking about. And the last I was told (about 2 years old) is that he was making 7% AFTER rebate, as I said. So he would be losing into a full takeout (or actually, not playing).

How much would you like to bet I can prove my numbers for this year, which can be found at the top of this string? You evidently know some people in this game, guessing we can find someone we both trust to hold the bet. In honor (ahem) of Romney, 10k? More? My percentages are down slightly since that post because I\'ve been losing in occasional action (though  I did have a couple of tickets on the pick 6 at Hol yesterday which got some back).

Re the synthetic figures-- that subject has been hashed to death on this site, use the search engine. Guessing you are new here, and don\'t use our figures.

And yes, any profit, even 1%, is good in a pari-mutuel game with a usurious takeout, even after rebates. I can provide the best data in the history of this industry and teach people how to use it, but so far I haven\'t been able to get takeout reduced.

[TGJB]

The double with the odds-on favorite was paying about $440.

It seems impossible, but with the DD paying about the same as the win price, I\'m wondering if it could be a conso...

[Edgorman]

I have never seen a double at a major track where a combination was uncovered.  I think someone or some group pounded the second leg winner with all in the first leg.  They did not have to bet into the win pool in the second leg hence the $23 win price.

[Boscar Obarra]

hmmm, interesting thought.  Considering that only $40 or so would have naturally been wagered on that combo, its not beyond impossible.

 tried calling HOL but they were closed.

[miff]

Best guess,a drunk!Conso makes sense, no one had it for a buck, but wouldn\'t that mean that the back end is an all?

Many here missing the point though.Even if they did/are looking at it,they, i.e the clueless clowns, should always make a statement in cases of an insane payoff.Make us think there\'s a heartbeat there.

[FrankD.]

First post in a very long time. I\'ve been on my own self imposed sabbatical for a bit. Other than a disastrous Breeder\'s Cup I\'ve made made about a dozen total plays since Saratoga. I\'m dipping my feet back in at the Gulfstream meet slowly.

Interesting string that says it all about the state of this game. The DD pool at Hollywood was only 25k !!!!! Those are Finger Lakes or Philly Park type pool numbers.

Good luck all,

FD

[Boscar Obarra]

the money is spread out all over the place, tri/super/exacta/doubles horizontal bets.

 25k not quite as bad as it sounds.

[FrankD.]

Boscar,

Cali handle numbers have been in the toilet since they went plastic.( Deservidily so ) Pre poly  rolling double pools were easily 100k.

What do you expect when you card 8 races of 5 and 6 horse fields ?

[clae]

JB -

thanks for the data.  I think it is great and keeps getting better.

A question for you if you don\'t mind:

you mention hitting the pick 6 at hollywood yesterday.  Congratulations.
I think this was very hittable, but I whiffed, missing the 2 yo\'s in the 10th.

After missing the last race (singling the favorite), I looked at the sheets and the winner made sense, as it had (in my mind) the best sire, trainer stats, jockey combo, etc.  I was kicking myself for not spending the extra measly 10 bucks, as the analysis surely would\'ve had the winner.  In redboarding today, I\'m surprised it didn\'t, and in fact mentioned another horse as having the best sire, trainer stats.  What did I miss? Am I reading the data incorrectly (i hope not as I\'ve been using sheets for 20+ years).

Anyway, this is not a criticism, just wonder how you forge your view these first timers outside of works (Harrington) and some other nuggets (i.e. dam) that you\'ve graciously shared over the years. I weigh yearling costs, prep, numbers 1st out and 2 yo for sire/dam, trainer stats, surface, thoughts on well meant, etc. and combine for overall view, without a strong weight or bias towards anything (probably most towards parents #\'s).  But I typically struggle with the firsters especially when other indicators like the betting is a few legs in.

I presume that in a horizontal structure where you like the other legs, the 2 yo unraced legs just require a spread unless a few are likely.  Is this how you approach it and what you did yesterday in the last ?

For second timers, I have given far more weight to the trainers TG #\'s from start 1 to start 2 than their percentages, ROI, and it seems like a a good predictor, but for first timers, I struggle. Any insight into what you weigh heavily on the 2 y.o.\'s and how you structure horizontal bets with many unraced and unknowns in the legs would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks.

p.s. I\'ve been trying to sign in with the account I\'ve had forever, but it didn\'t work so had to create new id fwiw.

[TGJB]

First of all, I didn\'t do the analysis. I had no real opinion in the race and went 5 deep. My opinions were in other legs.

You\'re pretty much on top of it with your general analysis, I\'ll just make a couple of points. First, I\'m much more interested in 2yo sale prices than those for yearlings (they are based far more on the indivdual than on pedigree), and best of all is when you can compare both. Second, in terms of predicting ability (or tendencies, like plus grass or distance), the dam side info is both more relevant and less reflected on the tote board than the sire info. Very valuable.

[bstaubs22]

Not sure if anyone heard this, but I was listening to the replay of Steve Byk\'s show and someone at Suffolk made a $200 Dbl ALL/Mitchell horse basically taking down the whole pool.


I found this on the TVG community site and thought it was pretty comical.

1) it was already stated this morning that a $200 back wheel of Mitchell was bet at Suffolk

2) the horse is owned by William J Sims

3) some very rudimentary digging finds that there is a William J Sims that is President of Joule Inc.

4) Joule Inc is located in Massachusetts

5) Suffolk is located in Massachusetts