Well...

[dodie]

Jerry and Plastic
  I think if you are going to focus on horizontal wagers, the way to protect that price horse \"underneath\" is not to protect at all if it is the first leg of a P3, or the 1st or 2nd leg of a P4 or the 1st, 2nd, or 3rd leg of a P6/5.  I know this is imposing an artificiality based on how the races are positioned in the sequence, but, if you are like me, and you feel you are much better at picking winners than 2nd, 3rd, or 4th place finishers (which is why I focus on horizontals and not verticals . . . yeah, I know, I\'m leaving money on the table :-) ) you wait until the later legs when you start having an idea of what you could potentially make, and then protect accordingly.  I think this knowledge of payoff potential counteracts the fact that your 20-1 shot runs second by a nose to the favorite in the first leg, your P3s and 4s are dead, and all you have is a $1 exacta box because you don\'t want to feel completely stupid and at least you have \"something\" on the race.  One of the best feelings at the track for me is to see what the P3/4 is paying going into the last leg, figuring out how much I\'m going to make with my live tickets, and then structuring some savers.  This is anecdotal, but I\'m honest enough with myself to think the following are the guidelines.
 Put together your x-ta, tri, and super saver tickets, total how much they cost, and then only invest half that amount in the savers and use the other half to press bets on the horses you are live too.  I know, its counterintuitive, but I think many will support me; that\'s the right way to go.  Yes, your win % will go down, but, when you hit, your profits will more than make up for it.  Further, if you are playing your horizontals right, those horses you have to save against include at least one or two short prices, which you decided to take a stand against anyway.  Even further, if there are more DD, P3/4s to come, halve the money again that your putting on vertical savers and invest that money in the horizontals going forward on the horses you don\'t have; use that favorite with longshots going forward.  I don\'t remember any \"big score\" vertical savers, but I do going forward in horizontals.
  Again, these are the ramblings of a guy who\'s been on a hot streak, but in a month or two when things go cold I\'m going to come back here and read my own advice and be glad that these posts never go away.  :-)  It is the right way to play.

[jumpnthefire]

i know i moved out here to by Chicago 12 years ago and couldn\'t believe otbs are like the ones in atlantic city  with a restaurants just a few but they are nice ... and low and behold no 6.5% withholding only 2% lol

[TGJB]

Dodie-- that\'s actually one of the most important posts about betting anyone has put up here. It\'s something I\'ve been doing more of this year-- keeping in mind not to use horses you don\'t really like in the first leg of a sequence just because you like things a lot in later legs. You\'re exactly right-- there are almost always multiple race bets starting with the next leg. And yes, it\'s very important-- crucial-- to learn how to use those later races for a hedge if you ARE live. The fact that after the first two legs of a pick 6 you can cover your ass in the pick 4 while still having a lot of leverage is extremely useful if you know what you\'re doing.

[alydar61]

Congrats Jerry, and thanks for all you do here.

As for betting the KY tracks, I can\'t see how anyone does well at Keeneland. I am so confounded by that track now that I doubt I will ever place a major bet there again, unless they switch back to dirt, and good f\'n luck with that. This is a track I grew up with, even worked there while in high school.

The BC weekend was good to me. I was ahead a little on Friday. Had a nice day on Saturday, mostly thanks to the Hansen exacta. Couldn\'t lose on Sunday. If it rains at CD though, I bail.

I\'d rather bet River Downs than Ellis or Turfway.

Here\'s hoping the coming year is even better for you.

[bellsbendboy]

I too, found this a terrific thread and congratulate JB. If memory serves his \"winning streak\" started right after a very tough beat in the Belmont
when his pick three was short circuited when the Fu Peg freaked in the mud.

JB would be a good \'capper without integers as he makes good decisions, covers bases with large returns and generally takes a there is always tomorrow approach.

I must disagree with Dodie on \"overanalyzing\".  For me, the more data the better.
Having all the facts and putting them together properly is a simple formula for cashing.

For instance, a million times a year someone posts that they like a horses pattern and conclude it has had enough time to recover.  Many of these times the horse was entered and was a vet scratch.  They seldom acknowledge the scratch and may not know how a horse gets off the vet list! TG shows this data.

Patterns, or form cycles clearly can be read differently.  One need not look any further than the Hollywood Derby and the prerace analysis from a Thorograph competitor.  It read, summarized, that Ultimate Eagle had a bad pattern and was the least likely of a dozen sophomores to win!  As many will recall, the colt was undefeated since going to the grass and wired that field at a number.  How a competent sheet reader could come up with the least likely winner is hard to comprehend.

Other data regarding equipment changes, castration ( on which someone recently here wrote a knowledgable post) surface/trainer moves etc. are all pieces of an intricate puzzle.  How they fit requires information... all of it.

Lastly, favorites often can be a sequence bettors best friend.  A race is carded, horses are entered and a that point many in the racing office \"know\" who is going to win.  I realize there are bad public choices but a third of the time they win.

On one unrelated point,  it is Christmas time and my email is inundated with TG competitors seeking donations for worthless information.  While this may not be the venue to discuss their collective trash, please let me know if it is allowable.  Their individual claims are comical and would make for good reading. bbb

[TGJB]

BBB-- actually, I am interested in what others in this industry are selling, and how. Fire away.

[bellsbendboy]

I realize by selecting only one worthless \"handicapping service\" email might upset some of the others, but time constraints and all.

And the winner is... RPM!   Whoever they are.   The last email came from a Len Czyz...ski indicating it was my last chance to purchase one of their guaranteed money making systems.   This weeks price was $57, down from the week before of $78 and along way short of the week before that of a robust $125.

Marketed as the \"best handicapping product\" on the web RPM actually has about three dozen \"systems\" that \"they\" sell as middlemen.   The owner who goes by Clint, or Dave, although sometimes Tom or Len et. al claims 50% of \"their\" picks win.  Their last winner paid $157.40 in the fifth, December 2nd in Louisiana.  

If you act today bonus programs are added for free!

First runnerup was sadly a tie between winning ponies and gapfire.

The former claims they \"know every angle at over 140 tracks\" and their picks have \"paid\" over $10,000,000 in 2011.    Unfortunately, in order to cash that 10 very large, you had to invest some thirty three million.

Gapfire claimed they had the breeders cup classic exacta but their posted FIVE horse box did not contain Drosslemeyer.   No matter substance aplenty here with twelve winners in as many heats at Turfway last week,   AND all ten winners at Holly wood Saturday.   Before you knock down the door and buy their trash look at todays selection 12/14/11!   Paraphrased  {  \"We have not played FG in years.  Who knows what will happen but our top selection is #3 in race number nine.  However, we are not convinced how this one will run today\" }

Next time someone complains about this sites ROTW remember there is other options out there!!! LOL. bbb

[Edgorman]

Reminds me of one of the greatest handicapping books ever, \"The Dot System\".  Written by a guy named Henkin who had never been to the track.  Must have been in the early seventies when OTB reared its ugly head.  Essentially he gave \"Dots\" to horses picked by the handicappers in the Daily News and his \"system\" was to box the horses with the most dots. Of course the key to making money was to bet the \"No DOT\" special which was of course a long shot because no one had picked him.  Hysterical stuff and I think he sold a ton of books.

[Lost Cause]

Edgorman Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Reminds me of one of the greatest handicapping
> books ever, \"The Dot System\".  Written by a guy
> named Henkin who had never been to the track.
> Must have been in the early seventies when OTB
> reared its ugly head.  Essentially he gave \"Dots\"
> to horses picked by the handicappers in the Daily
> News and his \"system\" was to box the horses with
> the most dots. Of course the key to making money
> was to bet the \"No DOT\" special which was of
> course a long shot because no one had picked him.
> Hysterical stuff and I think he sold a ton of
> books.
Oh My God!!!
I read that book at the ripe old age of 10.  My older cousin who lived in our basement had that book and I borrowed it from him to read.  I tried it using all three area newspapapers (Post, News and Newsday)...I quickly realized at 10 that this was stupid..My cousin stopped gambling after a couple of years of using this system and getting killed..
Brought back some memories with that book name.

Lawton was the can\'t lose picks that some in my family clung to.  A bunch of them would chip in and buy it and bet whatever he picked religiously.

[Rick B.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So I\'m done betting for a while.

I think your timing is excellent for another reason.

I can\'t remember such unappetizing racing -- and I mean whole cards, almost everywhere -- as I have seen since the BC races were run.

I do a whole lot of handicapping, and next to no betting...and it\'s making me sour. Maybe I need time away, too, to relax and get refreshed; luckily I don\'t have Jerry\'s problem of having to count up mad stacks of money won.  

[Breakage]

\"there\'s at least one guy who bets 200 million anually and makes 7% on it.\"

LOL!

If I held 7% I would not boast about it.
It is extremely risk averse betting which has undoubtedly resulted in mega losses to the bottom line.

and it not that I don\'t believe you, it\'s  just that I know it is false.

[TGJB]

It would be interesting to know how you could \"know\" that even if you were right. It\'s like Ragozin saying in his book that he \"knows\" no track has ever changed speed except when there was rain or a freeze (p 35).

 The guy in question is the same one who made the famous \"mistake\' bet on Monarchos in the Florida Derby that changed his odds from 9/2 to 5/2 during the running of the race, in a very big pool. Some of us had (and still have) doubts about when that bet was put in. He originally made his money (a real lot of it) in software.

He-- and some of the others who are taking a lot of money out of the pools while getting maximum rebates due to extremely high volume-- are not American.

[miff]

\"The guy in question is the same one who made the famous \"mistake\' bet on Monarchos in the Florida Derby that changed his odds from 9/2 to 5/2 during the running of the race, in a very big pool\"

JB,

Speaking of odds dropping during the running of the races, GP a cesspool. Don\'t know if it\'s past posting or just antiquated software but the odds are changing like crazy during the running at GP.

Clueless Clowns circle jerking about all sorts of rather mundane issues without correcting this obvious \"perception\" problem, fools!!

Mike

[phil23]

Yeah, could not agree more miff.  While there \"probably\" is nothing untoward going on (maybe...), just the perception is horrible for the game.  This really is the number 1 issue.  If you don\'t have odds integrity in betting, what do you have.  (Volponi?)

[miff]

...more \"stuff\" for the Clueless Clowns:

Yesterday at Hollywood the winner of the 5th race paid 173 to win, the winner of the 6th race paid 23. The rolling DD paid 174(should pay near 2K) pool size was like 23k.

If I were part of Hollywood\'s management, I would immediately publicly say that we are looking into that very small payoff and after analyzing the betting, we\'ll get back with our findings.

The Clueless Clowns would ever think of such a thing in these type circumstances, too stupid,out of touch with their customers.


Mike