Perfect Shirl

[aceriley63]

Anyone else cash on this one?  What was not to like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in the race with a better figure and just barely but she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this one was left out of the analysis. It was the only ticket I cashed today, but it was more than enough.

[Dana666]

Yours is the kind of post that would have been much more appreciated before the race! I love Perfect Soul more than any other sire, and had I had the least inclination (or perhaps imagination), I would have looked at Shirl much closer. I really settled on the Juddmonte filly who was scratched, so I was all confused by the time the race went off.

You\'re right though I (and many others) did miss her entirely, and she fit from many different views. I think if you bet jockeys in BC races you\'re insane, but anyway, to tell the truth, I\'m so used to seeing a 30-1 am line horse and just glancing past, but you really can\'t do that in the BC. My bad.

I guess you\'re not the only one who tabbed her b/c the pick 4 paid an absurd 11K for a dollar, so someone must have unloaded. With 2 million in the pool you can do the math, but I\'m thinking how in the hell did that not pay at least 25 or 30K? Not saying I\'d be complaining if I cashed, but I thought the price was crazy low. The whole day sucked in my opinion, not b/c I didn\'t make a any money either, but with the exception of the ladies classic, I don\'t even think we saw any truly great horses today. Really boring, lackluster day. If they had any sense they\'d go back to 1 day format.

Hopefully, we\'ll have a uniform surface tomorrow. I\'d be happy if we don\'t have a fractional time of 1:15 for six furlongs in a dirt race. I would need a huge day tomorrow to make up for today. I had the last race cold, but unless I\'m Jon Corzine, I have no cash by race 10 having lost the first nine!

[aceriley63]

This was a pure sheet read, my own interpretation since she wasn\'t mentioned in the analysis (still can\'t figure out why).  I had no idea she was 30-1 morning line.   When I was a wee lad of 20-something, I asked my mentor who was teaching me how to bet what that number was.  He said \"That\'s the morning line.  It is to be ignored\". We used to kill Gulf Greyhound Park in Houston when it first opened...

[Dana666]

I know! Shirl had one of the fastest numbers in the field in her LAST race! Look, I\'m the last moron in the world to just read the number and nothing else, but she\'s only a 4 year old who ran a huge top in her last race--that\'s a pattern to be noticed. And on the Thoro-Pattern Attfield wins 25% off a top! I\'m not a moron for missing her--I\'m a COMPLETE moron!

[jimbo66]

Dana

Parlay for $2 was around $12,500.  Pick-4 paid $23,000 for $2.  

Nothing wrong with the price.  Nobody \"killed it\".  It was a fair price.

[boston]

[Horse Racing Wager]  Racing ticket ######### (Risking: 200.00)    WIN
   RAC    Nov-04 CHU R9 200.00 USD WIN 8   
   5,560.00

[Horse Racing Wager]  Racing ticket ###### (Risking: 100.00)    WIN
   RAC    Nov-04 CHU R9 50.00 USD PS 8   
   655.00

[P-Dub]

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I know! Shirl had one of the fastest numbers in
> the field in her LAST race! Look, I\'m the last
> moron in the world to just read the number and
> nothing else, but she\'s only a 4 year old who ran
> a huge top in her last race--that\'s a pattern to
> be noticed. And on the Thoro-Pattern Attfield wins
> 25% off a top! I\'m not a moron for missing
> her--I\'m a COMPLETE moron!

You\'re not the only idiot.

I passed on her too, as my buddy was rooting her home.  He had a $20 win ticket on her, I made nothing.  Today was a pretty miserable day, the only cash I had was the 6th race on the turf.  Had the trifecta for a buck, paid $458, and that was it.  Lots of losers.

I had to resort to the night tracks to get some of my money back. Had the 7th race Delta and exacta.  I watch $1,000,000 races all day and get out by playing claiming fillies racing for $14k. Go figure.

Back in the room, pouring over the TGs.  As bad as today was, can\'t wait for tomorrow.  Good luck fellas.

[Rick B.]

aceriley63 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyone else cash on this one?  What was not to
> like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in
> the race with a better figure and just barely but
> she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this
> one was left out of the analysis. It was the only
> ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> enough.

Ill-advised post. Redboarding at its absolute worst. Please stop.

[richiebee]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> aceriley63 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Anyone else cash on this one?  What was not to
> > like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> > run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse
> in
> > the race with a better figure and just barely
> but
> > she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why
> this
> > one was left out of the analysis. It was the
> only
> > ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> > enough.
>
> Ill-advised post. Redboarding at its absolute
> worst. Please stop.


...and it was his first post off an 8 year layoff. The Thorostewards need to
investigate, fines and suspensions (not to mention bad karma) likely to follow.

[Rick B.]

richiebee Wrote:

> ...and it was his first post off an 8 year layoff.
> The Thorostewards need to investigate, fines and
> suspensions (not to mention bad karma) likely to follow.

I tried to let it pass, and declined. We have TGJB & crew working their nutsacks off to come up with the data and selections, only to have some smug prick come along and put up his post-race \"how hard can it be\" pap.

I\'ve tried several times to write race analysis here -- for ONE race at a time. It\'s a royal pain in the ass, and the most I\'ve ever been right is only \"in part\". Those that are (faux) bewildered about how Perfect Shirl could have been left out should have a go at it, or keep quiet.

[Dana666]

Well, if I won a pick 4 on a BC day with two horses over 20-1 in the sequence, I\'d expect to get way more than 11K. I knew a guy who hit one on a BC Saturday a few years back and it paid 80K. The prices weren\'t much larger that day. Just my opinion, doesn\'t matter, b/c I wasn\'t close anyway. On to today.

[phil23]

Well said Rick.

[sekrah]

Looked like a fair Pick 4 price to me, no matter what the day.

[P-Dub]

aceriley63 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Anyone else cash on this one?  What was not to
> like, Johnny V, new top last time out \"full of
> run\", 7 weeks rest into today. Only one horse in
> the race with a better figure and just barely but
> she was wearing a moon goggle. Not sure why this
> one was left out of the analysis. It was the only
> ticket I cashed today, but it was more than
> enough.

You make some good points, but after the race has been run nobody wants to hear \"what was not to like\" or \"not sure why this one was left out of the analysis\". I made a similar comment last year after the same race (hit the P3), and it wasn\'t appreciated by some. I didn\'t think it was a big deal, but I can see their point.
 
There were valid points to play or pass this horse.  At the price, couldn\'t blame anyone for using the horse.  Nice score.

As for the analysis, I think JB does a tremendous job. He has to look at a couple hundred horses, and write a race analysis in a limited amount of time.  As Rick stated, that isn\'t an easy thing to do.

IMO, the race by race analysis is a starting point. It isn\'t meant to tell you exactly how to bet each race. Some races he says the favorites are bad, and there is opportunity.  Maybe he doesn\'t identify the horse that pulls the upset, but he at least alerts you to the chance.  Take this race for example, he stated that the Euros will be well bet and that none of them have to be used. You found a horse with a big number, has a few flaws, but at the price was worth a shot.  You were rewarded.

The Juvenile Turf was labeled a \"tricky race\".  To me that means its a bit chaotic and there is a chance at a price.  JB didn\'t give a strong push to any particular horse, he liked a few, but nothing stood out.  I played an exacta keying Wrote, I liked the addition of Lasix to a forward moving pattern. I played that horse with 4 others including the place horse Excaper in exactas. Excaper wasn\'t mentioned in the analysis, but his race 2 back was pretty good, his last on Poly I excused.  At 30/1 he made the exacta very nice.  The exacta paid $964 for a deuce. JB may not have pointed me towards either horse in his analysis, but his comments alerted me to a potentially nice priced opportunity.  I\'ve read enough Thorographs to think that I can find a winner without anyone\'s help.

JB writes the analysis without the benefit of a tote board.  The analysis is a guide, but the rest is up to the player.  Making your own decisions on horses, and looking at the board to get fair value, is what the game is about. The analysis isn\'t meant to hold your hand up to the window, it is there to guide you as you make the ultimate decision on whether or not to place a wager.  

I would be lost on Breeders\' Cup day without Thorograph. Great job again JB.

[JimP]

I think everyone is being too hard on Ace. Maybe someone at TG should just address the question straightup. It might be helpful for all of us to hear the rationale for excluding PS from the analysis. I haven\'t rechecked but I recall that PS had a big last race figure. So instead of all the redboarding venom maybe an explanation of the thinking of the analysis writer would be more productive.