This isn't a pick fully grounded in tg principles so I shouldn't even post

[covelj70]

Post It but.....my key for the classic is Rattlesnake Bridge.

I know he\'s a few points too slow on the sheets but his pattern is tremendous and Calvin is going to take him back and make one run up the rail like we have seen so many times before. he will save ground all the way around and with the weight and the ground savings, if he moves forward at all, he has a chance to hit the board at a monster price.  He reminds me so much of mine that bird before the derby.  Had a pattern that said he could move forward but many of us dismissed because be was too slow.  Calvin made up then difference and the rest is history. History could repeat itself here on Saturday.

It\'s raining like the end of days here today so we will have to see how the rail is playing post this monsoon but I think this horse has a real chance to hit the board at a big price.

[RICH]

I agree, I will most definitely use him, lightly in the Pk3 and 4 and triples. Nice line, needs 2-3 pt top, but that\'s why you need the 30-1, good luck out there

[Wrongly]

I guess my question on Rattlesnake Bridge is the amount of development?  We don\'t have a 2-year old number to use, so how much would be too much?  What\'s the rule of thumb here, use his first figure as a 2-year old Top?

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Having a hard time reading you these days.  

I definitely saw a late June \"equipment change\" for you of \"kool-aid off\".  (I think I posted as much!)

But the title of your post, suggests you may be \"back on\".  

I guess using RattleSnake bridge underneath isn\'t the worst move in the world, but you really think he can win?  IMHO, the Classic is one of the few races where I haven\'t changed my mind at all, at least as far as how to bet it from a multi-race perspective.  Using the old \"A\'s\", \"B\'s\", \"C\'s\", I think it is a three A\'s race, with no backups.  If I can be alive to Havre de\'Grace, Flat Out and To Honor and Serve, I will be thrilled.  They can have Uncle Mo, or the Baffert speed horse.  Give me the two solid figure horses with the 3-year old that MAY be getting good at the right time.  

Toughest call for me on Saturday is how to play the Breeder\'s Cup Mile.  I have emptied my wallet 3 years in a row betting AGAINST Goldikova.  On TG she looks at least as good as in previous years and maybe even slightly better.  Funny enough, she is LONGER in European betting than she is here.  I have seen 9-4 overseas.  The Euros seem pretty insistent she is a step slower than in the past.  Does Lasix give her the step back?  I am inclined to spread against her and make this my \"wide net\" race in the pick-4/pick-6 on Saturday.  Courageous Cat, Gio Pionti, Get Stormy, Sidney\'s Candy, Jeranimo, the two other Euros and even Zoffany.  Looking for \"mayhem\" in the Mile.  OF course, that makes Goldikova the most likely winner of the weekend.......

Good luck.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Love it.  Good stuff.

On the classic, don\'t read too much into it, for me at cd, it\'s all about Calvin.  I have made extreme amounts of money over the last few years betting him and so if I can make any case at all for a horse he\'s on, I will do that.  He\'s awful everywhere else but he is a difference maker here.

On the mile, for me, that comes down to how this course holds the rain.  I think the firm turf is the reason she has run so well here.  When she has lost in Europe, it\'s generally been on soft ground.  Shes had rock hard ground here for e last 3 years. With this rain today, maybe not this year.  Cd turf course drains really well though so we just have to wait and see how it dries out.

Oh, by the way, while I was typing this, Calvin just won the 2nd race here.

[Halo Fire]

covelj70,

I read somewhere on this board that you have an affinity for Flat Out. Did I miss something? What happened?

[number5858]

Hard to throw out Goldikova in the multi-race wagers. She obviously has a shot. Given the odds, however, I am looking at Courageous Cat in the mile. I really like the way Mott sent his contenders to CD early, and he has had 3 works over the track. I agree with Jim Covello that it really helps to have a work over the track. I like the post and the speed for Courageous Cat as well. I\'ll take the 8-1, but agree this is a race that has a lot of possible winners depending on the track condition, racing luck, trips, etc.

[covelj70]

I dont like that flat out will be down on the rail. Tough spot. I agree with what pletcher said about uncle mo\'s draw when someone asked him about being all the way outside. He said \"anything but the rail\"

Flat out obviously still has a chance but I don\'t like him as much post the draw.

[phil23]

Official word from the track (@derbymedia twitter feed) is that they are keeping the one hole open.  So Flat Out will still be starting from the 2 hole.

Can anyone confirm that the 1 and 2 hole, at CD, are NOT as stuffed in close to the rail in the BC, as opposed to the Derby, due to the absence of the secondary gate for the extra 6 starters?  Have heard this but not sure if true.  


------------------------------
@DerbyMedia Churchill Downs PR
Post 1 in Classic will remain open despite scratch of Prayer for Relief, according to starter Scott Jordan. #BC11
------------------------------

[TGAB]

Has Borel been working Rattlesnake Bridge this week? I don\'t think so. McLaughlin shipped in late. That\'s the only real detriment to using Borel as far I can foretell. Calvin giveth and Calvin taketh away but he does know Churchill. The detriment is the lack of an intuitive feel for the horse borne of experience and that would be a detriment for any new jock-horse combination,and one obviously overcome many a time.

As far as Rattlesnake Bridge\'s line there\'s nothing wrong with it. Indeed, five tops, two paired-tops, it\'s damn near perfect. And look at the tops, small,bite-size steps forward, positive steps least likely to incur a bounce and they haven\'t. But Rattlesnake Bridge\'s pair-ups, while not bounces, do represent stopping points. So inasfar as looking at development we can say Rattlesnake stalled a bit both in April-June and August-September, improving 4-1/2 points overall, roughly the amount of development for typical Tapit racers to-date from two through four. The pair-ups denote stopping levels and development gets them beyond, not conditioning. Presumably there were in top shape to hit the levels in the first place. That improvement suggests that Rattlesnake Bridge may be tapped out in terms of having another move in him at this time. And while stakes-quality runners can be freaks,in a good sense, surprisingly often their development mirrors the amount bequeathed by the sire (TGI) just at a faster level than their more mortal siblings. Look in the ROTW archives. You\'ll be surprised, or at least I was, at frequency with which this occurs.

That said, you get no argument from me as to keying this colt at 30-1. Another indicator of improved form is shorter cycles. And note the paired 0s, faster than the 4s occurred in narrower time frame and time needed to get by is a week shorter in this spot.  So, good timing, strong pattern, healthy horse, bred to like it wet or dry, good post, good jock, a bit of weight, top players that just may be over the top (but are fast)--Thoro-Pattern gives this guy a 16% chance of running a new top, -1 or better. At say 10% chance to win (high), .16 * .1 = .016 which translates to about 60-1, an underlay to win but would probably be longer underneath and would certainly help produce boxcars in any spot, first through fifth. And a -2 would ratchet those percentages and odds up to a far greater likelihood.

Equine alchemy, these are the days for it or at least to dream about it somewhat plausibly. Can anyone say Arcangues?

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why? Its not the Derby and if you remember 06 everything was winning from the rail

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why would a top trainer like Baffert not work or train at CD year in and year out for BC or Derby?


Damn smart phones are so smart they change words for you.....thanks for the edit feature....

[NoCarolinaTony]

Alan where the heck isTgjb. Been wanting to get him drunk for the contest ....any plays you maywant to suggest? $$$$ comes your way if I win and......I got great advice....

[Halo Fire]

Tony,

Where\'s the Happy Hour? I want in..NYC?

[TGAB]

He landed in Lexington. He said not to ask. Drove up to Louisville, he\'s at the press party or something like that. Don\'t know more.