Derby Dirty Dozen

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Waiting for ze final numbers you\'ll need at least a fig in the 2 range to win.

1.Perfect Drift: has never gone back, Spiral looks to be in the 1-2 range (Azillion 2.0 out of the race) rest unconventional route to Derby.

2. Saarland: another who has never gone back, perhaps picked up a 2-3 in Wood? Flipped palate?

3. Sunday Break: wide trip close finish to Bud/Medag 1st big, big # may be short Graded $$$

4. Medaglia D\'Oro: may be this years Millenium Wind with another big top? Frankelshakes help here

5. Request for Parole: dreaded too fast 2yo number 3.5 but has strung together 2\'s as a 3yo including Spiral and takes same unconventional route as PD, might make a trip to Derby Trial

6. USS Tinosa had a nice line to a 1.5 going into SA Derby, jock said there was an equip. problem and a big off race, another who may be short Grd$$$

7. Essence of Dubai has a nice come from behind win at 10F, has the same rest as Perfect D. Godolphin will win one soon enough.

8. Castle Gandolfo just might be O\'Briens top hoss for this. Royally bred to get the distance. Another unconventional route. Gets Bailey. Coolmore trying to win it before Godolphin.

9. Buddha this years version of Balto Star, perhaps Bondshakes help run three monsters in a row.

10. Came Home two monster figs out of the box, off race in SA Derby, but may have been a short horse missing 10 days of training prior to SA-D. Horse just keeps winning, but breeding \'s ultra fast as 2yo pair of 4\'s

11. Harlans Holiday dreaded ran fast 2yo [2.25], but had never gone back until the Blueg. (can\'t see that being another \"0\") the off race might help like Monarchos, but too many big races may have finally cooked him. Has dreaded Raise A Native on the broodmare sire line (RAN bms has never won a Derby, PG 1st to win a Belmont)

12. War Emblem paired a \"1\" in IL Derby, bought by Prince Ahmed for $1mill, might get rail skimming trip with Espinoza, breeding says okay. Baffyshakes help 3 big races in a row?

Buddha/Day - Harlan - Meadaglia/Frankel- Essence/Godolphin (will get big DRF write ups before the race), Came Home likely co-favs short prices, all beatable end of the liners except EOD? Perhaps. Top three in this list likely double digits. After the final figs come out things will change.

Sleepers: Flying Dash, bred for distance from Germany, secret \"dual qualifier\", closed last 1/4 in Transylvania 23 n/c; Equality paired 4\'s before Aventura at GP; Easy Grades equipment trouble in SA Derby 3.25 just before; Blue Burner bounced some in  the Wood (depending on fig) 2.25 in Fl Derby.

Later,

Gvido

[MO]

No mention of Johannesburg? looking like Bailey may have the mount. What do you think?
MO

[TGJB]

I don\'t agree with all of it, but nice job. And it ain\'t milkshakes

[TBeam]

\"2. Saarland: another who has never gone back, perhaps picked up a 2-3 in Wood? Flipped palate?\"

Yep, he sure did, nice call.  http://www.drf.com/crown2002/countdown/news.html

[bdhsheets@hotmail.com]

Mark: When asked which of his horses he expected alot from this year, Michael Tabor answered without thinking \"High Chapparal (sp)\" plus he\'s got another powerhouse in Hawk Wing. When asked about J-berg and the 2000 Guineas, O\'Brien answered \"well, there only so many I can run there\" Not exactly ringing endorsements. Perhaps J-berg wins by a pole, I won\'t have him. They looked upon him as a good miler, we\'ll see.

Sorry T-Beam, no credit here. It was reported earlier in the day. The ? mark because there was no mention of it after the race, just four days later when the procedure was performed. It makes me wonder, that\'s all.

Gvido

[MO]

Tabor is full of @!#$. They are trying to get us to overlook Johannesburg so he can bet. Remember, he bet (no @!#$) $50,000 to win on Thunder Gulch.
MO